FT大視野：新興市場面臨債務壓力

Despite a terrible two years for Turkey’s tourism sector, rocked by terrorism and political uncertainty, Ertu?rul, a businessman with five hotels on the country’s Mediterranean coast, has managed to keep up with his debt repayments. During the most desperate period he sold a textile factory and cut his staff from 800 to 200 to stay afloat.

受恐怖主義和政治不確定性的影響，土耳其旅游業(yè)經歷了糟糕的兩年，但在土耳其地中海沿岸擁有5家酒店的商人埃爾圖魯爾(Ertu?rul)堅持分期償還債務本息。在最絕望的時期，為了維持下去，他出售了一家紡織廠，并將員工從800人裁至200人。

He is hopeful that a return of Russian and European visitors in the coming months will help prices to recover, but remains anxious that any increase in the 4 per cent interest rate he is paying on an $8m loan will spell trouble. “If interest rates rise it is going to make things more and more difficult for me,” he says. “If it goes above 6 per cent then it will become intolerable.”

他期待，未來幾個月俄羅斯和歐洲游客的回歸將有利于價格反彈，但他仍擔心，一筆800萬美元貸款目前4%的利率一旦上升將帶來問題。“如果利率上升，我的日子將變得越來越難過，”他表示，“如果超過6%，我就受不了了。”

Ertu?rul, who declined to give a surname, is far from alone. Across the emerging world, businesses, households and governments loaded up on an estimated $40tn of cheap debt during the decade of loose monetary policy in the developed world that followed the global financial crisis.

埃爾圖魯爾拒絕透露姓氏，他遠非懼怕利率上升的唯一商人。全球金融危機爆發(fā)后，發(fā)達國家實行了10年的寬松貨幣政策。其間整個新興市場的企業(yè)、家庭和政府據估計累積了40萬億美元的廉價債務。

Now that period is nearing its end, and as the US continues its “normalisation” of monetary policy — with a further three or four interest rate rises expected this year — several analysts have questioned whether the emerging world’s debt pile is sustainable.

如今，這個階段即將結束，隨著美國繼續(xù)推進貨幣政策“正?；?rdquo;(預計今年還有3次或4次加息)，幾位分析人士質疑新興世界背負的大量債務是否可持續(xù)。

“The premise on which lenders keep lending to borrowers as they become more indebted is that the backdrop will stay benign,” says Sonja Gibbs, senior director for global capital markets at the Washington-based Institute of International Finance, an industry association. With political uncertainty on the rise around the world, she says, “it feels more like there is the potential for events to trigger volatility in emerging markets than it has done for some time”.

“銀行在借款者負債更高時繼續(xù)貸款給他們的假設是，大環(huán)境將保持良性，”總部位于華盛頓的行業(yè)協(xié)會國際金融協(xié)會(IIF)的全球資本市場高級主管索尼婭•吉布斯(Sonja Gibbs)表示。她表示，隨著全球政治不確定性上升，“與一段時間以來相比，感覺像是各種事件更有可能觸發(fā)新興市場的動蕩”。

The uncertainty that gripped global financial markets in early February — sparked, many believe, by strong US job numbers that raised the prospect of jumps in inflation and interest rates — was one sign that the backdrop may not stay benign for very much longer.

今年2月初席卷全球金融市場的不確定性就是一個跡象，表明良性的大環(huán)境可能不會持續(xù)更久。很多人認為，此輪不確定性的導火線是美國的強勁就業(yè)數據，因為這帶來通脹和利率上升的可能性。

The reason for the growing concern is clear. Among a group of 21 developed markets monitored by the IIF, the combined outstanding debt of households, governments, corporations and financial institutions rose from the equivalent of about 290 per cent of their combined gross domestic product at the end of the 1990s, to 380 per cent at the end of 2008. Since then, it is broadly unchanged.

擔憂愈演愈烈的原因顯而易見。在國際金融協(xié)會監(jiān)測的21個發(fā)達市場，家庭、政府、企業(yè)和金融機構的未償還債務總額與合計國內生產總值(GDP)之比，從上世紀90年代末的約290%升至2008年底的380%。此后這個比率基本未變。

But, since the crisis, debt in emerging markets has surged. In China, it rose from 171 per cent of GDP at the end of 2008 to 295 per cent at the end of last September. The combined debts of a group of 26 large emerging markets monitored by the IIF rose from 148 per cent of GDP at the end of 2008 to 211 per cent last September.

但自金融危機爆發(fā)以來，新興市場債務劇增。在中國，債務與GDP之比從2008年底的171%升至去年9月底的295%。在國際金融協(xié)會監(jiān)測的26個大型新興市場，債務總額與GDP之比從2008年底的148%升至去年9月的211%。

The IMF and others argue that the pace of debt growth is often at least as significant as its overall level in signalling trouble ahead. Yet the rapid rise in emerging market debt to GDP during the past decade — by more than 40 per cent in the IIF’s 26 countries and by more than 70 per cent in China — has still to register with many people.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和其他一些人提出，就預示未來危機而言，債務增速往往至少與債務整體水平一樣重要。然而過去10年，新興市場債務與GDP之比的迅速提高(在國際金融協(xié)會監(jiān)測的26個國家上升逾40%，在中國上升逾70%)仍未引起很多人的注意。

Instead, attention has been focused on more positive factors.

相反，人們的注意力放在更為積極的因素上。

Emerging economies are growing more quickly than at any time since the crisis: many analysts expect their aggregate GDP to rise by as much as 5 per cent this year, far more than in the developed world. Causes of instability in the past, such as big current account deficits, have largely been erased. Emerging market stocks have performed well for the past two years, yet are still attractively priced compared with those in developed markets.

新興經濟體的增速現(xiàn)在超過自金融危機以來的任何時候：很多分析人士預計，新興市場合計GDP今年有望達到5%，遠遠超過發(fā)達國家。巨額經常賬戶赤字等過去導致不穩(wěn)定的因素已基本消除。過去兩年新興市場股市表現(xiàn)不錯，但其定價仍比發(fā)達市場股市更具吸引力。

For the year ahead, the consensus outlook for financial markets remains sanguine, amid a belief that investors will take the gradual normalisation of US monetary policy in their stride and, crucially, that the US dollar will continue to weaken despite rising US interest rates. With the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank yet to join the US Federal Reserve in starting to tighten, global monetary conditions remain loose, meaning emerging markets are likely to remain a popular place to invest.

未來一年，人們對于金融市場前景的共識仍然樂觀，相信投資者將從容應對美國貨幣政策的漸進正?；瑫r至關重要的是，盡管美國利率上升，但人們相信美元將繼續(xù)走弱。考慮到日本央行(Bank of Japan)和歐洲央行(ECB)尚未跟隨美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)開始收緊政策，全球貨幣條件仍然寬松，新興市場很可能仍將是一個受歡迎的投資地點。

Indeed, the continuing ability to borrow cheaply should be a boon for growth. “Emerging markets have been taking advantage of extremely favourable borrowing conditions,” says Charles Robertson, chief economist at Renaissance Capital, an investment bank focused on emerging markets. “You would hope they could support growth through investment at these interest rates.”

的確，保持廉價借入資金的能力對于增長而言應該是一個利好。“新興市場一直在利用極為有利的借款條件，”專注新興市場的投行晉新資本(Renaissance Capital)的首席經濟學家查爾斯•羅伯遜(Charles Robertson)表示，“你會希望，在這種利率水平上，他們可以通過投資來支持增長。”

Markets wobbled again last week when Jay Powell, the new chairman of the Fed, hinted at a faster pace of US interest rate rises this year.

最近市場再次動蕩，當時美聯(lián)儲新主席杰伊•鮑威爾(Jay Powell)暗示，今年加息速度可能加快。

Nevertheless, bond issuance by governments and companies in emerging markets continues at a fast pace, at more than $1tn for each of the past two years, with investors apparently undeterred by Mozambique’s renegotiation of its debt two years ago or by the prospect that Angola may soon follow suit. “People will buy anything so long as it offers them yield and diversification,” one banker told the Financial Times.

然而，新興市場政府和企業(yè)的債券發(fā)行規(guī)模繼續(xù)快速增長，過去兩年每年都超過1萬億美元，投資者顯然沒有被兩年前莫桑比克重新談判其債務、或者安哥拉可能很快也這么做的可能性嚇倒。一位銀行家告訴英國《金融時報》：“只要提供收益率和多樣性，人們什么都買。”

Some urge caution and suggest that emerging markets would be wise not to assume that financial conditions will continue to be as easy as they are today. Paul Greer, emerging markets debt portfolio manager at Fidelity International, says differences in interest rate expectations between the US and Europe suggest the dollar has become undervalued against the euro during the past six to nine months and is overdue for a correction.

一些人敦促要謹慎，并提出，新興市場最好不去假設金融狀況將繼續(xù)像現(xiàn)在這樣寬松。富達國際(Fidelity International)新興市場債務投資組合經理保羅•格里爾(Paul Greer)表示，美歐之間的利率預期差距似乎表明，過去6到9個月，美元兌歐元匯率已變得低估，調整早該出現(xiàn)了。

He also points to changing financial conditions in emerging markets themselves.

他還指出，新興市場本身的金融狀況也在發(fā)生變化。

Weighted in line with the members of the JPMorgan GBI-EM global diversified bond index, there has been a downward trend for inflation in emerging markets over the past six years and it is still falling. But measured in the same way, inflation expectations have been heading upwards since November. While inflation will continue to fall in some countries, Mr Greer expects it to turn positive for emerging markets as a whole.

參照摩根大通(JPMorgan)全球新興市場政府債券指數(GBI-EM)的權重，過去6年新興市場通脹出現(xiàn)下滑趨勢，目前仍在下滑。但根據同樣的方法衡量，自去年11月以來，通脹預期一直在上行。盡管一些國家的通脹將繼續(xù)下降，但格里爾預測，新興市場作為一個整體的通脹率將上升。

He warns that buyers of local currency emerging market bonds, who have done well in the rally of the past two years as investors have sought to take advantage of the improving growth outlook, “are going to lose out”.

他警告稱，購買本幣新興市場債券的投資者“將蒙受虧損”;在過去兩年的上漲行情中，隨著投資者尋求利用不斷改善的增長前景，它們表現(xiàn)不錯。

Others argue that if quantitative easing was the driver of rising global asset prices, it makes sense that quantitative tightening, already under way in the US and soon to come elsewhere, should have the opposite effect. 其他人辯稱，如果說量化寬松政策推動了全球資產價格不斷上漲，那么量化收緊(美國已經啟動，其他地方不久也將跟進)應該會造成相反影響的說法是有道理的。

Most argue that emerging markets are much better prepared to face these shocks than they were in the past, and not only thanks to their better current account balances. Many governments have weaned themselves off foreign currency debt and have tapped deeper capital markets at home by issuing bonds in their own currencies, giving them a greater degree of control if conditions turn bad.

多數人辯稱，新興市場為應對這些沖擊所做的準備要比過去充分，這不僅源于它們擁有更好的經常賬戶平衡。很多國家的政府擺脫了對外幣債務的依賴，而是通過發(fā)行本幣債券，更深入地挖掘國內資本市場;如果形勢變糟，這將賦予它們更強的控制能力。

Yet the amount of debt issued in foreign currencies, while it has fallen as a share of the total, has continued to rise in relation to emerging market GDP and now stands at about 30 per cent. Many borrowers are exposed to the danger of having to pay foreign currency debt out of revenues in weakening local currencies, should the US dollar strengthen.

然而，盡管外幣債券規(guī)模占債券總規(guī)模的比例下滑，但其與新興市場GDP之比繼續(xù)上升，如今達到30%左右。很多借款者面臨這種危險：如果美元走強，而他們的收入以不斷貶值的本幣計價，那么用收入來償還外幣債務就可能遇到困難。

“Investors should be asking questions about the weak dollar,” says Mr Robertson at Renaissance Capital. “If we see higher US interest rates and a strong US dollar, that will be a double whammy to those who have taken out this much dollar debt.”

“投資者應該提出美元疲軟的問題，”晉新資本的羅伯遜表示，“如果美國加息且美元強勁，那將給背上這么多美元債務的借款者造成雙重打擊。”

Ms Gibbs says that of most concern is the sovereign debt of some African countries. But she adds that there are also “exotic” newcomers to the bond market which have taken advantage of investors’ risk appetite to issue bonds that would have struggled to find buyers in less exuberant times.

國際金融協(xié)會的吉布斯表示，最令人擔憂的是一些非洲國家的主權債務。但她補充稱，債券市場還出現(xiàn)了一些“奇特”的新進入者，它們利用投資者的風險胃口，發(fā)行在不那么火爆的時期將很難找到買家的債券。

Nor should investors be complacent about the rise of local currency debt, that now adds up to 181 per cent of GDP among emerging borrowers. As Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff noted in their 2009 book This Time is Different — an analysis of the causes of the global financial crisis — governments often restructure or default on foreign debts at surprisingly low levels because of their large levels of domestic debt, often unseen and therefore not factored in to calculations by lenders.

投資者也不應該對本幣債務越來越多持無所謂的態(tài)度，如今新興市場本幣債務與GDP之比達到了181%。卡門•萊因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)和肯尼斯•羅格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)在2009年出版了《這一次不一樣》(This Time is Different)，對全球金融危機的原因進行了分析。正如該書所指出的那樣，各國政府往往在低得令人意外的水平對外債進行重組或違約，原因就在于其龐大的國內債務水平，而外界往往看不到這一點，因此沒有被貸款人考慮在內。

In parallel, many emerging markets have reduced the level of government debt as a share of their total, with more taken out by the private sector. The shift is broadly welcomed for distancing debt from public policy and spreading risk across a national economy.

與此同時，許多新興市場降低了政府債務在債務總額中的比例，更多的債務由私營部門背上。這一轉變受到普遍歡迎，因為它可以讓公共政策少受債務影響，并在國民經濟中分散風險。

Yet this view, too, is likely to be tested in times of difficulty. As Mrs Reinhart and Mr Rogoff also noted, corporate defaults have frequently been precursors to government defaults, “as governments have tended to shoulder private sector debts”. When things go wrong, in other words, each country has just the one balance sheet.

然而，這種觀點在困難時期也可能經受考驗。正如萊因哈特和羅格夫也指出的那樣，企業(yè)違約常常是政府違約的先兆，“因為政府傾向于承擔私人部門的債務”。換句話說，在形勢變糟的時候，每個國家都只有一份資產負債表。

The recent blurring of lines between the public and private sectors and between financial and non-financial corporations has made the issue more urgent. Recent work by the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements — the so-called central bank of central banks — highlights the expanding role of businesses not only as borrowers, but also as lenders.

近期公共部門和私營部門之間、以及金融公司和非金融公司之間的界限日益模糊，使這個問題變得更加緊迫?？偛课挥诎腿麪?、有“央行的央行”之稱的國際清算銀行(BIS)最近的研究突顯出，企業(yè)不僅作為借款人的角色擴大，作為貸款人的角色也在擴大。

A BIS paper published in February points to the growing role of cash-rich Chinese companies, both private and state-owned, as suppliers of credit into the country’s shadow banking system. The report says the amount of credit supplied by the corporate sector into the shadow banking system roughly doubled between 2013 and 2016, from Rmb7.2tn to Rmb14tn ($1.1tn to $2.2tn at current prices).

國際清算銀行在今年2月發(fā)表的一份報告中指出，現(xiàn)金充沛的中國公司(無論是私營公司還是國有公司)作為信貸提供者在國內影子銀行體系中的角色越來越大。報告稱，從2013年到2016年，企業(yè)部門向影子銀行體系提供的信貸額大約增長了一倍，即從7.2萬億元人民幣增加到14萬億元人民幣(按當前匯率計算是從1.1萬億美元增至2.2萬億美元)。

In a separate paper last year, Hyun Song Shin of the BIS and Valentina Bruno of American University in Washington examined the rise in foreign-currency bond issuance by companies in emerging markets and found that such companies tend to borrow more in US dollars when they already hold large amounts of cash. The proceeds typically go into bank deposits and money market instruments to capture the difference between US and local interest rates, adding to the amount of lending available locally.

在去年的另一篇論文中，國際清算銀行的申鉉松(Hyun Song Shin)和華盛頓美國大學(American University)的瓦倫丁娜•布魯諾(Valentina Bruno)研究了新興市場公司發(fā)行外幣債券的增長情況，發(fā)現(xiàn)這些公司往往在已經持有大量現(xiàn)金的時候借入更多的美元。所得款項通常進入銀行存款賬戶和貨幣市場工具，以套取美國和當地的利差，從而增加當地可用的放貸資金。

Other recent work by the BIS points to the role of the weak dollar in encouraging investment in emerging markets, because it makes finance cheaper and more abundant. It can even support emerging market exports — a counterintuitive proposition based on the premise that exports increasingly depend on long and complex supply chains, which also rely on cheap and abundant credit.

國際清算銀行近期的另一項研究指出了美元疲軟在鼓勵新興市場投資方面的作用，因為這使融資成本更低，資金更充足。美元疲軟甚至可以支撐新興市場出口——這個違反直覺的命題的依據是出口日益依賴于長而復雜的供應鏈，而后者也依賴于廉價而充足的信貸。

All of this would be at risk should the dollar begin to strengthen.

一旦美元開始走強，這一切都將面臨風險。

Brazil, which last year emerged from the deepest recession in its history, has been a darling of foreign investors for at least the past year on the basis that things can only get better. Yet Nick Dunbar, founder of the website Risky Finance, noted in January that the country — which holds elections in October — will have financing needs equal to 15 per cent of GDP this year. The private sector is not immune: the scandal-hit construction company Odebrecht is struggling to meet bond payments.

去年開始擺脫史上最嚴重衰退的巴西，至少在過去一年時間里成為外國投資者的寵兒，其依據是形勢只會向好的方向發(fā)展。然而，Risky Finance網站的創(chuàng)始人尼克•鄧巴(Nick Dunbar) 1月指出，將于10月舉行大選的巴西今年的融資需求相當于GDP的15%。私營部門也不能幸免：丑聞纏身的建筑公司Odebrecht將很難兌付債券。

According to Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz: “We are not in a stable and good equilibrium. We are seeing the end of an increasingly unstable paradigm between finance and economics.”

安聯(lián)(Allianz)首席經濟顧問穆罕默德•埃爾-埃利安(Mohamed El-Erian)表示：“我們目前并非處于穩(wěn)定而良好的平衡狀態(tài)。我們正在看到金融和經濟之間一個日益不穩(wěn)定的范式的終結。”

He sees two potential outcomes: one in which emerging market debt becomes less of a problem because growth is maintained; and another, less benign, future in which developed markets do not maintain their pick-up in growth, “and we get policy mistakes [in emerging markets] and the system fragments more quickly”.

他認為可能出現(xiàn)兩種結局：一種是，因為經濟保持增長，新興市場的債務問題變得不那么嚴重;另一種結局則不太妙，發(fā)達市場沒能保持增長勢頭，“而新興市場出現(xiàn)政策失誤，整個系統(tǒng)更快碎片化”。

Ms Gibbs at the IIF shares that view. “It feels like we are at an inflection point,” she says. “We have gone for so long with a sense of underlying calm, but now the Fed is more hawkish, the ECB and BoJ are less dovish, and consensus views are being shaken across the board.”

國際金融協(xié)會的吉布斯也持相同看法。“感覺就像我們現(xiàn)在正處于一個拐點，”她表示，“我們經歷了這么久的風平浪靜，但現(xiàn)在美聯(lián)儲更為鷹派，歐洲央行和日本央行也不再那么鴿派，共識觀點正受到全方位沖擊。”

Additional reporting by Laura Pitel in Ankara

勞拉•皮特爾(Laura Pitel)安卡拉補充報道