市場擔心中國以所持美債為武器報復鋼鋁關稅

Donald Trump’s decision this month to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports generated plenty of speculation about potential retaliation from trading partners.

唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)本月宣布對進口鋼鐵和鋁征收關稅，這一決定引發(fā)了關于貿易伙伴潛在報復的大量猜測。

For the bond market, investors are keeping a close eye on China’s holdings of US government debt. Beijing is the largest foreign owner of US Treasuries, with holdings of $1.18tn, according to official data.

就債券市場而言，投資者正密切關注中國持有的美國國債。據(jù)官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國是美國國債最大的外國所有者，持債規(guī)模達到1.18萬億美元。

China’s holdings have grown rapidly, rising from under $500bn at the end of 2007 to $1.16tn at the end of 2010, and have stayed close to those levels since.

中國的持債數(shù)量增長迅速，從2007年底的5000億美元一路增加到2010年底的1.16萬億美元，此后一直維持在該水平附近。

“China owns huge amounts of Treasuries,” said RJ Gallo, a senior fund manager at Federated Investors. “The US is not the only seat at the table with some cards in their hands.”

Federated Investors高級基金經(jīng)理RJ•加洛(RJ Gallo)表示：“中國持有大量美國國債。美國不是唯一手上有牌的玩家。”

The US government bond market has been a place for Beijing to park the dollars it gathers from selling goods to the US, whose trade deficit in goods with China reached $375bn last year.

美國國債市場一直是北京存放在對美商品出口中得到的美元的地方，去年美國對華貿易逆差達到3750億美元。

China’s holding are predominantly in Treasuries maturing in more than one year, with only $4.2bn invested in shorter-dated “bills”.

中國持有的美國國債主要是一年期以上的，在更短期的債券上只投入了42億美元。

However, any move by Beijing to use its holdings of Treasuries as a weapon in a trade war would come at a heavy cost, fixed-income analysts and economists say.

不過，固定收益分析師和經(jīng)濟學家們表示，北京方面將所持美國國債當作貿易戰(zhàn)武器的任何舉動，都將付出沉重的代價。

“Retaliation is never a clear choice,” said Seth Carpenter, chief US economist at UBS. “There would be a cost on both sides.”

瑞銀(UBS)首席美國經(jīng)濟學家塞思•卡彭特(Seth Carpenter)說：“報復從來不是一個容易的選擇。雙方都會付出代價。”