朝方沉默突顯美朝峰會(huì)對(duì)金正恩的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

Initial excitement over a potential summit between the leaders of the US and North Korea is giving way to concern as the reclusive regime remains steadfastly silent on the talks.

美朝領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人可能舉行峰會(huì)的前景在初時(shí)引發(fā)的激動(dòng)正逐漸讓位于擔(dān)憂(yōu)情緒，原因是朝鮮政府對(duì)這場(chǎng)會(huì)晤仍保持沉默。

The silence out of Pyongyang has triggered concerns that the dictatorship may be insincere about its overtures or could again be playing psychological games with its adversaries in a bid to create leverage.

平壤的沉默引發(fā)了人們的擔(dān)憂(yōu)，即這一專(zhuān)制國(guó)家的示好可能缺乏誠(chéng)意，或可能是為了給自己創(chuàng)造籌碼而再次跟它的對(duì)手玩心理游戲。

US president Donald Trump last week surprised the world by agreeing to a summit with Kim Jong Un, to be held “by May”, after the North Korean leader extended an invitation through two South Korean envoys.

在接到朝鮮領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人通過(guò)兩位韓國(guó)特使發(fā)出的邀請(qǐng)之后，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)于上周同意與金正恩(Kim Jong Un)于“5月”前舉行首腦會(huì)議，令全球?yàn)橹痼@。

The news was greeted with cautious optimism, with many relieved that Mr Trump was opting for diplomacy after months of threatening war with Pyongyang over its advanced weapons programmes.

人們對(duì)這一消息持審慎樂(lè)觀(guān)態(tài)度，許多人因特朗普選擇外交手段松了口氣，此前他接連數(shù)月因平壤的先進(jìn)武器計(jì)劃威脅要對(duì)其發(fā)動(dòng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。

But North Korean state-run media have since remained silent on the prospect of a summit, as well as a possible meeting with South Korean president Moon Jae-in. 但朝鮮官媒此后對(duì)這場(chǎng)峰會(huì)的前景，以及與韓國(guó)總統(tǒng)文在寅(Moon Jae-in)的可能會(huì)晤一直保持沉默。

Jeon Young-sun, a professor at South Korea’s Konkuk University, said Pyongyang was probably being careful not to be seen to offer too much to Washington, including de-nuclearisation.

韓國(guó)建國(guó)大學(xué)(Konkuk university)教授Jeon Young-sun表示，平壤可能在小心地不表現(xiàn)得向華盛頓提供太多東西，包括無(wú)核化。

“For us, nuclear bombs are a strategic military weapon. For North Koreans, the nuclear concept is almost equivalent to religion. It is a psychological safeguard for them,” he said.

他說(shuō)：“對(duì)我們來(lái)說(shuō)，核彈是一種戰(zhàn)略軍事武器。對(duì)于北韓人來(lái)說(shuō)，核武器思想幾乎等同于宗教，是他們的心理保障。”

“So it is risky for the regime to announce a meeting with the US and to say that it is now on the path to de-nuclearisation. The betrayal would be huge for North Korean people as they have long cherished the nuclear programme.”

“因此對(duì)于該政權(quán)來(lái)說(shuō)，宣布與美國(guó)舉行峰會(huì)，并表示正處于無(wú)核化進(jìn)程是有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的。這對(duì)北韓人民是極大的背叛，因?yàn)樗麄冮L(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直珍視自己的核計(jì)劃。”

If managed correctly, however, a summit could be a big win for Mr Kim.

但如果應(yīng)對(duì)得當(dāng)，這場(chǎng)峰會(huì)對(duì)金正恩來(lái)說(shuō)可能是一場(chǎng)重大勝利。

No North Korean leader has ever met a serving US president and a meeting would afford the regime an air of global legitimacy as well as domestic prestige.

沒(méi)有一位朝鮮領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人曾與在職美國(guó)總統(tǒng)舉行會(huì)晤，而這樣的會(huì)面不但能為該政權(quán)帶來(lái)全球合法性，還能提高國(guó)內(nèi)聲望。

Many analysts therefore believe the meeting with Mr Trump is likely to take place. But the tight timeframe means North Korea is now likely to be frantically preparing, although the US has since cast doubt on the May target and says no date has been agreed.

因此許多分析人士認(rèn)為與特朗普的會(huì)面很可能會(huì)成行。但緊迫的時(shí)間表意味著朝鮮現(xiàn)在可能在瘋狂準(zhǔn)備，雖然美國(guó)隨后對(duì)5月這個(gè)目標(biāo)持疑，并表示尚未約定日期。

Kim Ki-ho, a professor of international politics at Kyonggi University, said North Korea “seems to be working on preparatory works, such as the kind of rhetoric they will use when they announce ‘the great leader Kim Jong Un will sit down with Donald Trump as nuclear states on an equal footing’.”

京畿大學(xué)(Kyonggi university)國(guó)際政治教授Kim Ki-ho表示，朝鮮“似乎正在進(jìn)行一些準(zhǔn)備工作，比如當(dāng)宣布‘作為地位平等的核國(guó)家，偉大領(lǐng)袖金正恩將與唐納德•特朗普坐下商談’時(shí)要用到的修辭。”

He added that Mr Kim would push ahead with the meeting because he was desperate for some relief from the sanctions that the US has piled on Pyongyang.

他還表示金正恩會(huì)推動(dòng)這次會(huì)議，因?yàn)樗惹械叵胍徑饷绹?guó)對(duì)平壤的重重制裁。

Lee Sang-hyun, a senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute, echoed the sentiment, saying he expected that North Korea was co-ordinating prospective meetings and activities.

世宗研究所(Sejong Institute)高級(jí)研究員李相賢(Lee Sang-hyun)對(duì)此表示贊同，稱(chēng)他預(yù)計(jì)朝鮮將協(xié)調(diào)未來(lái)的會(huì)議和活動(dòng)。

“Their low profile is a temporary thing,” he said. “Once any progress is made or a meeting is confirmed, they will announce the meetings in their outlets.”

“他們的低調(diào)是暫時(shí)的，”他說(shuō)，“一旦取得任何進(jìn)展或者會(huì)晤確定下來(lái)，他們將在本國(guó)的宣傳機(jī)構(gòu)公布。”

The official silence on the summit, however, does not mean that North Korean media have ceased their usual vitriol against the US and its allies.

然而，朝鮮官方對(duì)此次峰會(huì)的沉默，并不意味著朝鮮媒體停止了對(duì)美國(guó)及其盟友的一貫尖刻抨擊。

At the weekend, the state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper criticised the US for its “inveterate repugnancy” and accused it of making “dangerous acts that may bring a war”.

上周末，朝鮮官方報(bào)紙《勞動(dòng)新聞》(Rodong Sinmun)批評(píng)美國(guó)“根深蒂固的兩面派做法”，指責(zé)美國(guó)制造“可能引發(fā)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的危險(xiǎn)行為”。

The comments underscore Pyongyang’s unhappiness with the sanctions, which have been spearheaded by Washington.

這些評(píng)論突顯出平壤方面對(duì)華盛頓帶頭實(shí)施的種種制裁的不滿(mǎn)。

Observers who are sceptical of North Korea’s motives said the summit was a ploy to try to ease sanctions and that the regime would never give up its nuclear weapons.

對(duì)朝鮮動(dòng)機(jī)持懷疑態(tài)度的觀(guān)察人士表示，此次峰會(huì)是朝鮮試圖減輕制裁的計(jì)謀，平壤政權(quán)絕不會(huì)放棄核武器。

“The possession of nuclear weapons has long been considered the greatest achievement of Kim Jong Un,” said Cho Han-beom, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification. “If they announce they are pursuing de-nuclearisation, he is at risk of losing his authority and the regime’s legitimacy as well. A sudden change in North Korea’s attitude towards the US and South Korea will result in a loss of face for Kim.”

“擁有核武器一直被視為金正恩最偉大的成就，”韓國(guó)統(tǒng)一研究院(Korea Institute for National Unification)高級(jí)研究員Cho Han-beom表示，“如果他們宣布正在尋求無(wú)核化，他將有喪失權(quán)威和政權(quán)合法性的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。北韓突然對(duì)美韓轉(zhuǎn)變態(tài)度會(huì)導(dǎo)致金正恩丟面子。”

But there is consensus on one point: the Kim regime will speak out at a time and manner of its choosing.

但專(zhuān)家們看法一致的一點(diǎn)是：金氏政權(quán)將在其認(rèn)為合適的時(shí)間用自己的方式做出宣布。

“North Korea tends to implement fully planned scenarios instead of moving in a step-by-step way. Timing wise, now is too early to announce the meetings to the North Korean people,” said Prof Jeon.

Jeon Young-sun教授說(shuō)：“北韓傾向于實(shí)施完全計(jì)劃好的方案，而不是一步一步走著看。時(shí)機(jī)很重要，現(xiàn)在向北韓人民宣布這些會(huì)晤還為時(shí)過(guò)早。”

“At a certain point, when they have thoroughly planned the scenario and decided what kind of rhetoric they will deliver, then they will make an announcement.”

“某個(gè)時(shí)刻，當(dāng)他們徹底計(jì)劃好了方案，并決定好要發(fā)布的措辭后，他們會(huì)作出聲明。”

Additional reporting by Kang Buseong Kang Buseong補(bǔ)充報(bào)道