當(dāng)談到老化問題時(shí)，自動(dòng)駕駛汽車不會(huì)拯救我們

當(dāng)談到老化問題時(shí)，自動(dòng)駕駛汽車不會(huì)拯救我們

Five years ago, MNN's Jim Motavalli wrote that Seniors, not hipsters, will get self-driving cars first. He wasn't alone in thinking this; Jane Gould, author of "Aging in Suburbia," thought autonomous vehicles would mean freedom for older people, who would be "able to transverse the vast, spread distances of the suburbs in a way that has never been economical or practical for public transportation."

五年前，MNN的吉姆·莫塔瓦利寫道，首先將擁有自動(dòng)駕駛汽車的將是老年人，而不是潮人。他并不是唯一這樣想的人;《郊區(qū)的老齡化》一書的作者簡·古爾德認(rèn)為，自動(dòng)駕駛汽車將意味著老年人的自由，他們將“能夠以一種從未在公共交通中實(shí)現(xiàn)過的經(jīng)濟(jì)或?qū)嵱玫姆绞?，跨越郊區(qū)廣闊而分散的距離”。

Why worry about driving when a self-driving taxi can take care of it? (Photo: Екатерина Волкова/Wikimedia Commons)

Motavalli was far more restrained and circumspect than most of the writers at the time; most predicted full automation by 2020, while Jim wrote "I've been, and remain, skeptical that autonomous cars as people imagine them — sitting in the back, playing with your phone, with the vehicle in charge — will happen before 2030."

莫塔瓦利比當(dāng)時(shí)的大多數(shù)作家都要克制和謹(jǐn)慎得多;大多數(shù)人預(yù)測到2020年將實(shí)現(xiàn)完全自動(dòng)化，而吉姆寫道:“我一直對(duì)人們想象中的自動(dòng)駕駛汽車——坐在后座，玩手機(jī)，由汽車負(fù)責(zé)——能否在2030年前實(shí)現(xiàn)持懷疑態(tài)度。”

I was also a skeptic, suggesting that if it happens at all, they will be very expensive and that "AVs might make it a little less ugly for a special few."

我也持懷疑態(tài)度，我認(rèn)為，如果真的發(fā)生這種情況，它們將非常昂貴，而且“AVs可能會(huì)讓一些特殊的人不那么難看。”

It turns out we were both probably probably overly optimistic. To sit in the back and play with your phone, you need a car with Level 5 Autonomy, where "the vehicle is capable of performing all driving functions under all conditions." Maybe an older person could get away with Level 4, where the car might not be able to go everywhere at all times.

事實(shí)證明，我們倆可能都過于樂觀了。要坐在后排玩手機(jī)，你需要一輛擁有5級(jí)自動(dòng)駕駛功能的汽車，“這種汽車能夠在任何條件下執(zhí)行所有駕駛功能。”也許一個(gè)年紀(jì)較大的人可以逃過四級(jí)考試，在四級(jí)考試中，汽車可能無法隨時(shí)隨地行駛。

We are barely at Level 2; it will be a long time before we reach levels 4 and 5. (Photo: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration)

The main benefit of self-driving cars was going to be for people who couldn't drive anymore, and they would need at least Level 4 capabilities. But Level 2, Partial Automation, or Level 3, Conditional Automation, in which the driver must be ready to take control, would still be pretty good for older drivers, so these improvements could still be a big help — or so we thought. Now, even that line of thinking is being questioned.

自動(dòng)駕駛汽車的主要好處將是為那些不能再開車的人準(zhǔn)備的，他們將需要至少四級(jí)的能力。但是第2級(jí)，部分自動(dòng)化，或者第3級(jí)，條件自動(dòng)化，其中驅(qū)動(dòng)程序必須準(zhǔn)備好控制，對(duì)于老驅(qū)動(dòng)程序來說仍然是非常好的，所以這些改進(jìn)仍然是一個(gè)很大的幫助——至少我們是這樣認(rèn)為的?，F(xiàn)在，甚至連這種想法也受到了質(zhì)疑。

So we may see autonomous cars in closed, protected places like the Villages in Floridathat can be mapped in great detail, but for the rest of us? It's going to take a while, and it's going to be expensive. As Thomas Sedran, who's in charge of evaluating Volkswagen’s autonomous strategy in commercial vehicles, explained to Reuters:

所以我們可能會(huì)在封閉的、受保護(hù)的地方看到自動(dòng)駕駛汽車，比如佛羅里達(dá)州的村莊，這些地方可以被詳細(xì)地繪制出來，但對(duì)我們其他人來說呢?這需要一段時(shí)間，而且會(huì)很貴。正如負(fù)責(zé)評(píng)估大眾商用車自主戰(zhàn)略的托馬斯•塞德蘭(Thomas Sedran)向路透社(Reuters)解釋的那樣:

... sensors, processors and software for so-called Level 3 cars already cost about 50,000 euros ($56,460). ... Even if this were achieved, the cost of high-definition maps and cloud computing add hundreds of millions of euros in annual costs for fleets of robotaxis or delivery vans.

…用于所謂的3級(jí)車的傳感器、處理器和軟件已經(jīng)花費(fèi)了大約5萬歐元(56,460美元)。即使實(shí)現(xiàn)了這一目標(biāo)，高清地圖和云計(jì)算的成本也會(huì)給機(jī)器人出租車或貨車車隊(duì)每年增加數(shù)億歐元的成本。

There's a thing called the Gartner Hype Cycle, where everyone gets really excited about a new technology and then we find out that it's a lot harder and a lot more expensive than anyone thought. You then slide into the trough of disillusionment (where we are now), do more work and eventually reach the plateau of productivity, where the technology sort of works.

有一個(gè)叫做Gartner Hype Cycle的東西，每個(gè)人都對(duì)一項(xiàng)新技術(shù)感到興奮，然后我們發(fā)現(xiàn)它比任何人想象的都要困難和昂貴得多。然后，你就會(huì)陷入幻滅的低谷(就像我們現(xiàn)在所處的境地)，做更多的工作，最終達(dá)到生產(chǎn)率的高原，這時(shí)，技術(shù)發(fā)揮了作用。

We are deep in the trough of disillusionment. (Photo: Jeremy Kemp/Wikimedia Commons)

But that all takes time, investment, technological improvement, regulatory changes, and eventual acceptance. I suspect that baby boomers hoping that self-driving cars will help them age in place are in for a very long wait.

但這一切都需要時(shí)間、投資、技術(shù)改進(jìn)、監(jiān)管改革，以及最終的接受。我懷疑，嬰兒潮時(shí)期出生的人希望自動(dòng)駕駛汽車能幫助他們老去，但他們要等很長時(shí)間。