美國國家海洋和大氣管理局警告說，颶風季節(jié)將高于平均水平

美國國家海洋和大氣管理局警告說，颶風季節(jié)將高于平均水平

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts 2020 will be an above-average hurricane season, with six to 10 hurricanes. NOAA expects three to six to be Category 3 or higher, with sustained wind speeds above 110 miles per hour.

美國國家海洋和大氣管理局預測，2020年的颶風季將超過平均水平，有6到10場颶風。美國國家海洋和大氣管理局預計3到6場颶風將達到3級或更高，持續(xù)風速將超過每小時110英里。

This hurricane season is coinciding with the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed nearly 100,000 people in the U.S. and continues to complicate basic travel and commerce across the country. Residents and emergency managers in hurricane-prone areas are grappling with concerns that evacuations, especially to public shelters, might increase coronavirus infections.

這個颶風季節(jié)正好與冠狀病毒大流行相吻合，后者已在美國造成近10萬人死亡，并繼續(xù)使全國各地的基本旅行和商業(yè)活動復雜化。颶風多發(fā)地區(qū)的居民和應急管理人員正在努力解決撤離問題，尤其是疏散到公共避難所，這可能會增加冠狀病毒感染。

If the forecast proves correct, it will be the fifth year in a row with an above-average number of hurricanes — the most consecutive years of above-average hurricane activity ever recorded.

如果預測正確，這將是颶風數(shù)量連續(xù)第五年高于平均水平——這是有記錄以來颶風活動超過平均水平的最連續(xù)的年份。

"Now is the time to make sure you're getting prepared for this season," says Gerry Bell, NOAA'S lead hurricane forecaster.

美國國家海洋和大氣管理局的首席颶風預報員格里·貝爾說:“現(xiàn)在是時候確保你已經(jīng)為這個季節(jié)做好準備了。”

Bell warns residents of hurricane-prone areas not to be overly focused on hurricane category, which is based only on wind speed. "Don't get locked into just the ultimate hurricane strength," he says.

貝爾警告颶風易發(fā)地區(qū)的居民不要過于關注颶風級別，因為颶風級別僅僅是基于風速。他說:“不要僅僅局限于最終的颶風強度。”

Climate change is driving more extreme rain and causing sea levels to rise, which means storms of all sizes are more damaging than they used to be. "Higher sea levels mean more storm inundation as a storm is approaching," says Bell. "The problem with that is our coastlines have built up tremendously over the last decades, so there [are] potentially millions more people in harm's way every time a hurricane threatens [to make landfall]."

氣候變化導致了更多的極端降雨，并導致海平面上升，這意味著各種規(guī)模的風暴都比以往更具破壞性。“隨著風暴的臨近，更高的海平面意味著更多的洪水泛濫，”貝爾說。“問題是，我們的海岸線在過去幾十年里大大提高了，所以每次颶風威脅登陸的時候，都可能有數(shù)百萬人處于危險之中。”

The Atlantic has been relatively friendly to hurricanes since 1995, and recent above-average activity is largely due to that trend, which is separate from man-made climate change.

自1995年以來，大西洋對颶風相對來說比較友好，最近颶風的活躍度高于平均水平很大程度上是由于這一趨勢，而這與人為造成的氣候變化無關。

However, at the global level, climate change caused by humans is driving more intense hurricanes on average, according to a NOAA study published this week.

然而，根據(jù)美國國家海洋和大氣管理局本周發(fā)布的一份研究報告，在全球范圍內(nèi)，人類活動造成的氣候變化正導致越來越多的強烈颶風。

On Wednesday, the Federal Emergency Management Agency published its 2020 pandemic guide for hurricane preparedness, which urges state and local governments to rethink when they give evacuation orders ahead of hurricanes, and where they direct residents to go. FEMA warns that housing large groups of people in shelters could lead to increased transmission of the coronavirus.

周三，美國聯(lián)邦緊急事務管理局發(fā)布了2020年流行病期間颶風防備指南，敦促各州和地方政府重新考慮在颶風前何時下達疏散命令，以及指引居民前往何處。聯(lián)邦應急管理局警告說，讓大群人住在避難所可能會增加冠狀病毒的傳播。

On Thursday, FEMA Acting Deputy Administrator Carlos Castillo said that the agency wants people to change what they bring with them if they evacuate from a hurricane.

周四，美國聯(lián)邦應急管理局的代理副局長卡洛斯·卡斯蒂略表示，該機構(gòu)希望人們在從颶風中撤離時改變隨身攜帶的物品。

"Be prepared to take cleaning items with you like soap, hand sanitizer, disinfecting wipes or general household cleaning supplies to disinfect surfaces you may touch regularly," he says.

他說:“準備好隨身攜帶清潔用品，比如肥皂、洗手液、消毒濕巾或一般的家用清潔用品，可以給你經(jīng)常接觸的表面消毒。”

FEMA also recommends that people prioritize staying with family or friends outside evacuation zones rather than going to shelters, in order to limit coronavirus spread. Earlier this month the Red Cross announced it was working on arrangements with hotels in disaster-prone areas, so that people who are displaced can stay out of group shelters as much as possible.

聯(lián)邦應急管理局還建議，為了限制冠狀病毒的傳播，人們優(yōu)先與疏散區(qū)外的家人或朋友呆在一起，而不是去避難所。本月早些時候，紅十字會宣布，它正在與災難易發(fā)地區(qū)的酒店進行安排，以便流離失所的人能夠盡可能遠離集體避難所。