隨著油價(jià)下跌和資金枯竭，美國頁巖氣油熱潮是否即將破滅?
As Oil Prices Drop And Money Dries Up, Is The U.S. Shale Boom Going Bust?
隨著油價(jià)下跌和資金枯竭，美國頁巖氣油熱潮是否即將破滅?
The shale oil boom that catapulted the U.S. into the world's largest oil producer may be going bust. As oil prices drop amid weakening demand, bankruptcies and layoffs are up and drilling is down, signs of a crisis that's quietly roiling the industry.隨著油價(jià)下跌和資金枯竭，美國頁巖氣油熱潮是否即將破滅?
曾令美國一躍成為全球最大產(chǎn)油國的頁巖油熱潮可能即將破滅。隨著需求疲軟，石油價(jià)格下跌，增加了破產(chǎn)和裁員，鉆探活動(dòng)減少，這表明一場危機(jī)正在悄悄地?cái)噥y石油行業(yè)。
Some of the most successful companies in the oil business are household names — think Exxon Mobil or Chevron. But the boom in shale drilling has been driven by smaller, independent operators. These companies have pushed the limits of drilling technology and taken big risks on unproven oil fields.
石油行業(yè)一些最成功的公司都是家喻戶曉的名字，比如?？松梨诤脱┓瘕?。但頁巖油鉆探的繁榮是由規(guī)模較小的獨(dú)立運(yùn)營商推動(dòng)的。這些公司已經(jīng)突破了鉆探技術(shù)的極限，在未經(jīng)證實(shí)的油田上冒了很大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
如今，頁巖油約占美國石油產(chǎn)量的三分之二，幾乎占了整個(gè)行業(yè)的增長，但許多實(shí)現(xiàn)這一增長的公司現(xiàn)在都在艱難地維持運(yùn)營。
That has a lot to do with the business model of U.S. shale, says David Deckelbaum, an analyst at investment bank Cowen. "This is an industry that for every dollar that they brought in, they would spend two," he says.
投資銀行Cowen的分析師大衛(wèi)•德克爾鮑姆說，這與美國頁巖油的商業(yè)模式有很大關(guān)系。他表示:“在這個(gè)行業(yè)，他們每賺一美元，就會(huì)花掉兩美元。”
For years operators focused on drilling lots of new wells very fast, prioritizing explosive growth over profitability. Until now they've been able to rely on deep-pocketed investors who were willing to pour fresh capital into the industry, despite years of lackluster returns.
多年來，運(yùn)營商專注于快速鉆探大量新油井，把（鉆探油井?dāng)?shù)量的）爆炸性增長置于盈利之上。到目前為止，它們一直能夠依賴財(cái)力雄厚的投資者，盡管多年來回報(bào)率平平，但這些投資者仍愿意向該行業(yè)注入新的資本。
It's a story that may be familiar to anyone who's been following the tech industry in recent years. Deckelbaum compares it to a kind of a prospector mentality.
對于近年來一直關(guān)注科技行業(yè)的人來說，這個(gè)故事可能很熟悉。德克爾鮑姆把它比作一種淘金者的心態(tài)。
"There's always this idea of this brand new play that's going to have billions of barrels of upside and if you can just get in early, then it'll pay off in the long run," he says.
他表示:“總有人認(rèn)為，這種全新的投資方式將有大量的上升空間，如果你能及早入市，那么從長遠(yuǎn)來看，這種投資方式將獲得回報(bào)。”
Oil has always been a boom-and-bust industry. In 2014, for instance, a catastrophic price crash left the industry reeling. But even then, billions in new investment flowed into U.S. shale.
石油一直是一個(gè)繁榮與蕭條交替的行業(yè)。例如，在2014年，一場災(zāi)難性的價(jià)格崩盤讓該行業(yè)步履蹣跚。但即便如此，仍有數(shù)十億美元的新投資流入美國頁巖油行業(yè)。
Today, shrinking global demand for oil is driving the price down once again. What's different this time around? Investors no longer seem willing to write the industry a blank check.
如今，全球?qū)κ托枨蟮奈s再次壓低了油價(jià)。這次有什么不同?投資者似乎不再愿意給這個(gè)行業(yè)開空頭支票。
"I think now you've seen a lot of pressure of, 'We want you to be a real business. Your cost structure's too high, you have too much debt, I'm not funding your drilling anymore with external capital. You have to live within your own means,' " Deckelbaum says.
“我想你現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)看到了很多壓力，‘我們希望你成為一個(gè)真正的企業(yè)。你的成本結(jié)構(gòu)太高，你有太多的債務(wù)，我不會(huì)再用外部資本為你的鉆探提供資金了。你必須量入為出，’”德克爾鮑姆說。
由于無法獲得新的資金，許多生產(chǎn)商正在縮減勘探。鉆探新石油的鉆機(jī)數(shù)量降至兩年來的最低點(diǎn)。
That's bad news for people like Ron Fountain, who works on a drilling rig in the Bakken shale of North Dakota. He thinks back to a few years ago, when the price of oil was over $100 a barrel and companies were drilling with abandon.
這對朗·方丹(Ron Fountain)這樣的人來說是個(gè)壞消息，他在北達(dá)科他州巴肯頁巖的一個(gè)鉆井臺上工作。他回想起幾年前，當(dāng)時(shí)石油價(jià)格超過每桶100美元，石油公司肆意鉆探。
"That's when we were still booming," Fountain says. "There was rigs coming out every month. We couldn't keep up, there was so much work going on."
“那是我們還在蓬勃發(fā)展的時(shí)候，”方丹說。“每個(gè)月都有提供新的鉆探機(jī)。我們跟不上，有太多的工作要做。”
Today though, with more and more rigs sitting idle, life has become uncertain for Fountain and his fellow drillers.
然而今天，隨著越來越多的鉆井臺閑置，方丹和他的鉆井伙伴們的生活變得不確定了。
