美股大跌給美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)敲響警鐘

Unemployment is near lows not seen in half a century. The American economy is set for its best year since 2005. Large corporations are producing giant profits. Even wages are starting to rise. 失業(yè)率接近半個(gè)世紀(jì)以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將迎來(lái)自2005年以來(lái)最好的一年。大公司正在創(chuàng)造巨額利潤(rùn)。甚至工資也開(kāi)始上漲。

And the stock markets are a mess. 然而股票市場(chǎng)一團(tuán)糟。

The losses extended on Tuesday, as the S&P 500-stock index turned negative for the year, stoking fears that one of the longest bull markets in history could be at risk. 隨著今年的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)轉(zhuǎn)為負(fù)值，周二損失擴(kuò)大，令人們擔(dān)心史上最長(zhǎng)的牛市之一可能面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

The stock market struggles may seem incongruous with an American economy that by many measures looks strong. But stocks often act as an early warning system, picking up subtle changes before they appear in the economic data. 美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在很多方面看起來(lái)都很強(qiáng)勁，股票市場(chǎng)的動(dòng)蕩似乎與其不協(xié)調(diào)。但股票通常充當(dāng)早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，在微妙的變化出現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)里之前就覺(jué)察到了它們。

In recent weeks, retail stocks have been hit over concerns of rising costs, a sign that the trade war may be starting to take a toll and that higher wages are cutting into profits. Commodities and the companies that depend on them have been pummeled by the prospect of weaker demand should the global economy slow. Five tech giants — Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple and Netflix — have shed more than $800 billion in market value since the end of August, the fallout from slowing growth and regulatory scrutiny. 最近幾周，由于對(duì)成本上漲的擔(dān)憂(yōu)，零售股受到打擊，這表明貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)可能開(kāi)始造成損失，而且工資上漲也正在侵蝕利潤(rùn)。大宗商品和依賴(lài)它們的公司受到全球經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩導(dǎo)致需求疲軟前景的打擊。自8月底以來(lái)，五大科技巨頭——Facebook、亞馬遜(Amazon)、Alphabet、蘋(píng)果(Apple)和Netflix——市值已縮水超過(guò)8000億美元，這是增長(zhǎng)放緩和監(jiān)管審查的結(jié)果。

The S&P 500 closed on Tuesday at 2,642, down 1.8 percent. Other markets also flashed warnings, with oil dropping by 6.8 percent, falling deeper into bear territory. 標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)周二收盤(pán)時(shí)為2642點(diǎn)，下跌1.8%。其他市場(chǎng)也發(fā)出警告，油價(jià)下跌6.8%，跌至熊市區(qū)域。

The sell-off doesn’t mean the United States is headed into a recession. The stock market suffered several sharp stumbles in recent years before climbing to new highs on the back of booming corporate profits and strong economic growth. 拋售并不意味著美國(guó)將陷入衰退。股市在近幾年遭遇了幾次大幅下挫，由于企業(yè)利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁，令它再創(chuàng)新高。

But the recent market drop is consistent with a potential downshift in the American economy. In 2018, a hefty dose of fiscal stimulus allowed the United States to shake off the growth worries in China, Europe and the rest of the world. It won’t have the same potency next year, leaving the American economy vulnerable to a global slowdown. 但最近的市場(chǎng)下跌與美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能出現(xiàn)的下滑趨勢(shì)一致。在2018年，大量的財(cái)政刺激措施使美國(guó)擺脫了中國(guó)、歐洲和世界其他地區(qū)出現(xiàn)的對(duì)增長(zhǎng)的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。這些措施明年將不再有相同的效果，使得美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)容易受到全球經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的影響。

“I think there’s very clear signs that investors are beginning to worry about weaker growth in the coming year or so, and how that’s going to feed through to corporate earnings,” said Michael Pearce, senior United States economist with Capital Economics. “我認(rèn)為有非常明顯的跡象表明，投資者開(kāi)始擔(dān)心未來(lái)一年左右的增長(zhǎng)疲軟，以及這將如何影響企業(yè)盈利，”凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)資深美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家邁克爾·皮爾斯(Michael Pearce)表示。

Until recently, investors were willing to ignore the geopolitical dramas, economic risks and other issues clouding the outlook for American companies. Now, they are jittery, pressing sell at even small signs of trouble. 直到前不久，投資者還對(duì)地緣政治事件、經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和其他給美國(guó)公司的前景蒙上陰影的問(wèn)題視而不見(jiàn)?，F(xiàn)在，他們變得緊張不安，甚至在麻煩出現(xiàn)小征兆時(shí)就急著出售。

Strong growth and deep corporate tax cuts have supercharged corporate profits this year. Once all the results are tallied up, the third-quarter earnings for companies in the S&P 500 are expected to be up more than 28 percent from a year earlier — outpacing previous quarters. 強(qiáng)勁的增長(zhǎng)和大幅企業(yè)減稅措施使今年的企業(yè)利潤(rùn)增加。一旦所有結(jié)果統(tǒng)計(jì)出來(lái)，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)成份股公司第三季度的收益預(yù)計(jì)將比去年同期增長(zhǎng)28%以上——超過(guò)前幾個(gè)季度。

But those numbers haven’t satisfied investors, who have grown simultaneously concerned about risks they face if the economy stays strong — such as rising interest rates and increased expenses for wages — as well as the threat to stocks from a significant global slowdown. 但這些數(shù)字并未令投資者滿(mǎn)意，他們同時(shí)還關(guān)注經(jīng)濟(jì)保持強(qiáng)勢(shì)所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)——例如利率上升和工資支出增加——以及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩對(duì)股市的威脅。

On Tuesday, shares of the retailer Target dropped by more than 10 percent, on worries that rising costs — from increased wages to higher prices for the Chinese goods facing tariffs — could continue to crimp profits. Investors also dumped shares of Kohl’s and TJX, the owner of T.J. Maxx, which both saw freight costs eat into earnings. 周二，零售商塔吉特(Target)的股價(jià)下跌超過(guò)10%，原因是擔(dān)心成本上升——從工資上漲到面臨關(guān)稅的中國(guó)商品價(jià)格上漲——可能繼續(xù)壓低利潤(rùn)。投資者還拋售了柯?tīng)?Kohl’s)和T.J. Maxx公司的所有者TJX的股票，兩家公司都面臨運(yùn)費(fèi)成本侵蝕利潤(rùn)。

Apple continued its slide on worries about softening demand. The tech giant tumbled nearly 5 percent, after Goldman Sachs equity analysts cut their price target citing deteriorating demand, especially in China. 由于擔(dān)心需求疲軟，蘋(píng)果股價(jià)繼續(xù)下滑。在高盛(Goldman Sachs)股票分析師因需求惡化(尤其是在中國(guó))下調(diào)其價(jià)格目標(biāo)后，這家科技股大跌近5%。

China, the world’s largest consumer of oil, has also been weighing on commodities. Oil prices, now just above $53 a barrel, have fallen more than 20 percent since early October. On Tuesday, the energy sector of the S&P 500 was the worst performing part of the stock market. 中國(guó)是世界上最大的石油消費(fèi)國(guó)，也一直對(duì)大宗商品有很大影響。自10月初以來(lái)，油價(jià)目前略高于每桶53美元，跌幅超過(guò)20%。周二，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的能源板塊是股市表現(xiàn)最差的板塊。

Weakness in China is feeding broader global concerns. Last quarter, the country’s growth slowed to its lowest level since 2009, during the depths of the global financial crisis. 中國(guó)的疲弱正在引發(fā)更廣泛的全球關(guān)注。上一季度，在全球金融危機(jī)低谷之時(shí)，該國(guó)的增長(zhǎng)放緩至2009年以來(lái)的最低水平。

Japan is also looking shaky, with the economy contracting in the third quarter. And Germany, the powerhouse behind Europe, shrank unexpectedly during the third quarter as well. 由于第三季度經(jīng)濟(jì)萎縮，日本也看起來(lái)不穩(wěn)定。而歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)國(guó)德國(guó)也在第三季度意外萎縮。

The global slowdown could eventually spill over into the United States, particularly as the impact of this year’s tax cuts fades in 2019. For investors, that could mean a choppy new phase in the markets after years of solid gains. 全球經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩可能最終波及美國(guó)，特別是今年減稅措施的影響在2019年消退時(shí)。對(duì)于投資者來(lái)說(shuō)，這可能意味著經(jīng)過(guò)多年的穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)后，市場(chǎng)將進(jìn)入一個(gè)動(dòng)蕩的新階段。

“I think this is what a low-return environment starts to feel like,” said Joe Davis, chief economist with Vanguard. “The past five years, although entirely welcome from an investment standpoint, is clearly unsustainable.” “我認(rèn)為這就是低回報(bào)環(huán)境開(kāi)始的感覺(jué)，”先鋒集團(tuán)(Vanguard)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家喬·戴維斯(Joe Davis)說(shuō)。“過(guò)去五年雖然從投資的角度來(lái)看非常令人愉快，但顯然是不可能一直持續(xù)下去的。”