標普：中國地方政府債務(wù)可能達40萬億元

"Hidden" local government debt in China is projected to have hit as much as Rmb40tn ($6tn), or 60 per cent of China’s gross domestic product in 2017, an alarmingly high rate as the country’s economy cools and manufacturing starts to suffer from China’s trade dispute with the US.

預(yù)計2017年中國“隱性”地方政府債務(wù)高達40萬億元人民幣(合6萬億美元)，相當于中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的60%，這一比例高得驚人。這正值中國經(jīng)濟降溫，制造業(yè)開始受到中美貿(mào)易爭端沖擊。

While the exact number is not known because much of the debt is not held on balance sheet, a report from S&P Global estimated that local government financing vehicles, or LGFVs, have racked up between Rmb30tn and Rmb40tn ($4.5tn and $6tn).

雖然確切數(shù)字未知，因為大部分債務(wù)不在資產(chǎn)負債表上，但標普全球(S&P Global)的一份報告估計，中國地方政府融資平臺(LGFV)已積累了30萬億至40萬億元人民幣(合4.5萬億至6萬億美元)的債務(wù)。

“And that’s a debt iceberg with titanic credit risks,” the report states.

該報告稱：“這是一座蘊含巨大信用風(fēng)險的債務(wù)冰山。”

For many years, local governments in China were not allowed to raise debt in capital markets and therefore resorted to creating separate vehicles in order to finance infrastructure projects, a key driver of local economic growth.

多年來，中國地方政府一直未獲準在資本市場上發(fā)債，因此，為了向基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項目提供融資，它們不得不創(chuàng)建了另外的融資工具?；A(chǔ)設(shè)施項目是推動中國經(jīng)濟增長的一個關(guān)鍵因素。

While local governments have more recently been allowed to issue bonds, and Beijing has sought to crack down on off-balance-sheet financing for local governments, LGFVs have remained active. Local governments have used public-private partnerships and investment funds to finance many of their infrastructure projects in recent years, according to the S&P report.

雖然地方政府最近才獲準發(fā)行債券，而且中央政府試圖打擊地方政府的表外融資，但地方政府融資平臺仍很活躍。上述標普報告顯示，近年來，地方政府利用政府和社會資本合作(PPP)和投資基金為許多基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項目提供融資。

“This was just another way to ratchet up the amount of hidden government debt for many projects,” the report says.

報告稱：“這只是增加許多項目的隱性政府債務(wù)的另一種方式。”

The result of the high level of debt, according to the report, could be defaults at local governments - particularly at "weaker prefectural city-level or district-level governments" - as China’s economy cools off.

報告稱，隨著中國經(jīng)濟降溫，高水平債務(wù)的結(jié)果可能是地方政府違約——尤其是在“實力較弱的地市級或區(qū)級政府”。

China’s economic growth is expected to decelerate in the coming years. GDP is expected to grow 6.6 per cent in the third quarter of the year, a slight decline compared to the previous quarter. At The government is also pushing through rigorous banking reforms that have tightened the access to credit through off-balance-sheet channels.

預(yù)計中國經(jīng)濟增長將在未來幾年放緩。今年中國第三季度GDP預(yù)計將增長6.6%，較上一季度略有下降。中國政府還在推行嚴格的銀行業(yè)改革，收緊了通過表外渠道獲得信貸的渠道。

At the same time, a fierce trade war that has broken out between the US and China is expected to dent economic output in the coming months.

與此同時，中美之間爆發(fā)的一場激烈貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，預(yù)計將在未來幾個月內(nèi)削弱中國的經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出。