Lex專欄：中國銀行業(yè)整頓表外融資

Chinese bank regulators are wresting the punchbowl from lenders drunk on off-balance sheet funding. To rehydrate, securities issuance rather than strong green tea, a traditional hangover cure, is required. Some of the palliatives, such as convertible bonds, could be good pick-me-ups for investors too.

中國的銀行監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)正從被表外融資的酒灌醉的銀行手中奪下潘趣酒碗。想補(bǔ)充水分的銀行需要的是證券發(fā)行，而不是傳統(tǒng)的醒酒劑——很濃的綠茶。一些權(quán)宜之計(jì)，如可轉(zhuǎn)債，對(duì)投資者來說也可能是不錯(cuò)的提神飲料。

China’s top regulators aim to curtail key shadow banking practices by 2019. Maturity mismatches between off-balance sheet assets and liabilities, as well as implicit guarantees offered on wealth management products backed by risky investments, are among their concerns.

中國最高監(jiān)管者的目標(biāo)，是到2019年削減關(guān)鍵的影子銀行業(yè)務(wù)。表外資產(chǎn)與負(fù)債之間的期限錯(cuò)配，以及對(duì)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資支撐下理財(cái)產(chǎn)品的隱性擔(dān)保，都是讓監(jiān)管者感到擔(dān)憂的問題。

New rules make it tougher to extend maturities on such products and could force them on to the balance sheet. Credit Suisse thinks such shadowy assets could cause total loans to exceed deposits at Minsheng and Citic Bank. Joint stock banks as a group could see their tier one capital diluted by an average of 51 basis points, causing some to sink towards their regulatory minimum. Larger banks are thought to be more insulated.

新規(guī)使得延長此類產(chǎn)品的到期日變得更困難，并可能迫使它們進(jìn)入資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)認(rèn)為，這些影子資產(chǎn)可能導(dǎo)致民生銀行(Minsheng)和中信銀行(Citic Bank)貸款總額超過存款總額。股份制銀行整體的一級(jí)資本(tier one capital)充足率平均可能被稀釋掉51個(gè)基點(diǎn)，致使某些銀行的這一比率逼近監(jiān)管下限。規(guī)模較大的銀行據(jù)信受此影響將更小。

Even so, the coming years will see a flood of issuance to fortify balance sheets. Just last week, Agricultural Bank of China issued Rmb100bn ($15.8bn) of shares to state investors. Rules prohibit share issuance below book value, which means share prices tend to rally once they have exceeded that level. Investors seem to reason it is better to be diluted than get wiped out in a bank collapse.

即便如此，未來數(shù)年，我們?nèi)詫⒖吹姐y行大量發(fā)行證券，以加固資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。就在上周，中國農(nóng)業(yè)銀行(ABC)向國有投資者發(fā)行了1000億元人民幣(合158億美元)的股票(規(guī)則禁止股票發(fā)行價(jià)低于賬面價(jià)值，這意味著一旦市凈率低于1，股價(jià)就會(huì)回升)。投資者似乎認(rèn)為，權(quán)益被稀釋也要好過在銀行倒閉中變得兩手空空。

Bonds that convert to stock at a price above book value offer participation in such accelerated gains — and some protection on the downside. Last year Everbright Bank issued Rmb30bn of convertibles. Yields on those bonds are negative, but future issues could yield more, if rates increase and banks crank up borrowing.

以高于帳面價(jià)值的價(jià)格轉(zhuǎn)換成股票的債券，提供了搭上收益加速這班車的機(jī)會(huì)——也在一定程度上起到托底的作用。去年，光大銀行(Everbright Bank)發(fā)行了300億元人民幣的可轉(zhuǎn)債。那些債券的收益是負(fù)的，但如果利率上升，各銀行加大資金借入，那么未來發(fā)行的可轉(zhuǎn)債可能會(huì)帶來更高的收益。

Equity investors should stick with the biggest banks. Fixed-income aficionados should keep an eye on the market for convertible bonds — and drink only the weakest tea to soothe their jangling nerves.

股票投資者應(yīng)該堅(jiān)守大型銀行。固定收益產(chǎn)品的狂熱愛好者應(yīng)該關(guān)注可轉(zhuǎn)債市場——只喝最淡的茶來舒緩他們緊張的神經(jīng)。