中國(guó)鋼鐵行業(yè)無(wú)懼美國(guó)關(guān)稅

When President Trump said he would introduce tariffs on global imports of aluminium and steel, China largely shrugged it off.

當(dāng)美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)聲稱(chēng)將對(duì)全球輸美的鋁和鋼鐵征收關(guān)稅時(shí)，中國(guó)似乎并不是太在意。

Even before the announcement, Chinese steelmakers said they were not worried about tariffs. That is because years of low exports to the US and the opening of new markets has left China relatively insulated from the immediate impact of American trade actions.

甚至在美國(guó)正式宣布消息之前，中國(guó)鋼鐵制造商就表示，他們并不擔(dān)心關(guān)稅問(wèn)題。多年來(lái)中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)鋼鐵出口量較少以及新市場(chǎng)的開(kāi)辟，使中國(guó)相對(duì)不受美國(guó)貿(mào)易行動(dòng)的直接影響。

“China has only a limited number of other steel products. In comparison, other countries will suffer even greater losses,” says Li Xinchuang, vice-director at industry group China Iron and Steel Association (Cisa). The real worry is the potential knock-on effects of tariffs, manufacturers say, as Chinese steel moves elsewhere in the global market and competition intensifies in other countries.

中國(guó)鋼鐵工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)(CISA)副會(huì)長(zhǎng)李新創(chuàng)表示，中國(guó)會(huì)受影響的鋼鐵產(chǎn)品數(shù)量有限，相比之下，其他國(guó)家將遭受更大損失。中國(guó)鋼鐵制造商表示，真正令人擔(dān)憂的是這些關(guān)稅帶來(lái)的潛在連鎖效應(yīng)，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)生產(chǎn)的鋼鐵正在流入全球市場(chǎng)其他地區(qū)，而在其他國(guó)家競(jìng)爭(zhēng)在加劇。

“It’s really the secondary impact of launching a global entrenchment in trade barriers which is a bigger threat,” says Tomas Gutierrez, Asia editor at industry publication Kallanish Commodities. “The more the US imposes costs on trade, the more other countries impose on trade. The more costs on trade, the more trade, especially in commodities, becomes localised.”

“在貿(mào)易壁壘中構(gòu)筑一道全球壕溝的二次影響才是更大的威脅，”行業(yè)刊物Kallanish Commodities的亞洲編輯托馬斯•古鐵雷斯(Tomas Gutierrez)表示，“美國(guó)抬高貿(mào)易成本，其他國(guó)家也會(huì)如法炮制。貿(mào)易成本越高，就有越多的貿(mào)易變得本地化，尤其是在大宗商品領(lǐng)域。”

In 2017, China accounted for about 2 per cent of total American steel imports by volume, according to official US trade data.

美國(guó)官方貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2017年，中國(guó)僅占美國(guó)鋼鐵進(jìn)口總量的約2%。

Linda Lin, editor in Shanghai for the consultancy CRU’s China Steel Service, says: “We can see the number of Chinese exporters that have already given up the US market due to existing trade barriers.”

咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)英國(guó)商品研究所(CRU)的中國(guó)鋼鐵服務(wù)(China Steel Service)駐上海編輯Linda Lin表示：“我們可以看到一些中國(guó)出口商已經(jīng)因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)有的貿(mào)易壁壘而放棄了美國(guó)市場(chǎng)。”

Globally, Chinese steel exports dropped by a third last year because of slowing domestic production. Six hundred induction furnaces — outdated and sometimes unlicensed facilities producing low-quality steel — have been closed since 2016, accounting for up to 7 per cent of annual production, says China’s industry and technology ministry.

去年，由于國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)放緩，中國(guó)鋼鐵出口量下降了三分之一。中國(guó)工信部表示，2016年以來(lái)關(guān)停了600座感應(yīng)爐(這些老舊、有一些甚至未經(jīng)許可的設(shè)施主要生產(chǎn)質(zhì)量低劣的鋼鐵產(chǎn)品)，占年產(chǎn)量的7%。

A key exception are steel-consuming products, such as home appliances. China’s most salient worry is that potential anti-dumping tariffs could extend to so-called white goods which use steel.

一個(gè)重要的例外是家用電器等使用鋼材的產(chǎn)品。中國(guó)最擔(dān)憂的是，使用鋼材作為原材料的“白色家電”也可能被征收反傾銷(xiāo)關(guān)稅。

Meanwhile, slowing domestic demand (the World Steel Association forecasts real growth in steel demand to be flat this year) means Chinese steel will have to find new export markets, probably in south-east Asia and the Middle East, which are affiliated with China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative on infrastructure.

與此同時(shí)，國(guó)內(nèi)需求放緩(世界鋼鐵協(xié)會(huì)(WSA)預(yù)計(jì)，今年中國(guó)實(shí)際鋼鐵需求將與去年持平)意味著，中國(guó)鋼鐵將不得不尋找新的出口市場(chǎng)，潛在市場(chǎng)包括參與中國(guó)“一帶一路”基建倡議的東南亞和中東。

Chinese trade officials are confident that a globalising China could sidestep tariffs in part because of “exporting capacity” programmes under the Belt and Road initiative, which include buying or building steel factories in European countries and sharing technological know-how.

中國(guó)貿(mào)易官員相信，日益全球化的中國(guó)可以避開(kāi)美國(guó)關(guān)稅的打擊，這部分得益于“一帶一路”倡議下的“產(chǎn)能出口”項(xiàng)目，包括在歐洲國(guó)家收購(gòu)或建造鋼廠以及共享技術(shù)工藝。

Sun Yongfu, a retired Chinese diplomat and a former director at the ministry of commerce, says the country’s presence in markets like Serbia, a potential EU member state, could give it a future platform to sell into the bloc.

中國(guó)退休外交官、前商務(wù)部歐洲司司長(zhǎng)孫永福表示，在有望加入歐盟的塞爾維亞等一些市場(chǎng)，中國(guó)已經(jīng)站住了腳，可以作為未來(lái)進(jìn)入歐盟市場(chǎng)的一個(gè)平臺(tái)。

China’s total exports of steel and aluminium are so large that even a slight increase could flood smaller markets.

中國(guó)鋼鋁出口總量非常大，即使只是小幅增長(zhǎng)，都可能對(duì)規(guī)模較小的市場(chǎng)造成沖擊。

“Trade shifts. If Chinese steel exports increase to other countries, then those countries may also be affected and take on the same measures,” says Mr Sun.

孫永福說(shuō)：“貿(mào)易會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移。如果中國(guó)向其他國(guó)家增加鋼鐵出口，那么那些國(guó)家也可能受到影響，并采取同樣的措施。”

In December, the US department of commerce set duties of 200-500 per cent on certain Vietnamese steel exports because they used Chinese steel products. That could pose a dangerous precedent in future trade negotiations. Mr Gutierrez called US duties on Vietnamese goods “a stretch of WTO rules to where they are almost at the breaking point”.

去年12月，美國(guó)商務(wù)部對(duì)來(lái)自越南的一些鋼材征收200%-500%的關(guān)稅，因?yàn)楹笳呤褂昧酥袊?guó)的鋼鐵產(chǎn)品。這或?qū)槲磥?lái)的貿(mào)易談判樹(shù)立一個(gè)危險(xiǎn)的先例。古鐵雷斯稱(chēng)美國(guó)對(duì)越南產(chǎn)品的征稅是“將WTO規(guī)則運(yùn)用到了極致”。

“The USA is starting to use more alternative approaches to tariffs, and the obvious reaction from other economies is, ‘if they’re doing it why can’t we do it?’?”

“美國(guó)正開(kāi)始使用更多的非關(guān)稅方法，其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體的明顯反應(yīng)是，‘如果他們這么做了，我們?yōu)槭裁床荒苓@么做?’”

Meanwhile, US tariffs have given China the moral high ground to position itself as a free-market advocate.

與此同時(shí)，美國(guó)征收鋼鋁關(guān)稅讓中國(guó)站在了可自稱(chēng)為自由市場(chǎng)倡導(dǎo)者的道德高地。

“Let the world know of China, recognise China, learn from China, and in particular, the Chinese government has adopted a series of market-oriented and rule-by-law policies and measures,” says Mr Li.

李新創(chuàng)表示：“讓世界了解中國(guó)，認(rèn)可中國(guó)，借鑒中國(guó)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，何況中國(guó)政府還采取了一系列以市場(chǎng)為導(dǎo)向和尊重法治的政策和措施。”

“Duties have a short-term sweetness, but in picking the seeds, [the US] may lose the whole watermelon.”

“關(guān)稅只能帶來(lái)短時(shí)的甜頭，(美國(guó))可能撿了芝麻，丟了西瓜。”