達(dá)沃斯論壇與會者最擔(dān)心什么？
去年，規(guī)模為1600億美元的對沖基金B(yǎng)ridgewater發(fā)布了一張有關(guān)現(xiàn)代政治的圖表，這張圖表令人震驚的原因至少有兩個。首先，圖中數(shù)據(jù)顯示，西方民粹主義、反建制派候選人(例如美國總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)、法國的馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)以及英國工黨黨魁杰里米•科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn))獲得的投票比例從2010年的7%飆升至2017年的35%。
Second, the chart showed that the only time an increase of this magnitude occurred in recent memory was in the 1930s, when another financial crisis led to populism. That time, the swing prefigured the rise of nationalism and led to war. Could history repeat itself?
第二，這張圖表顯示，最近歷史上出現(xiàn)過的唯一一次這么大幅度的數(shù)字飆升是在上世紀(jì)30年代，當(dāng)時也是一場金融危機(jī)導(dǎo)致民粹主義出現(xiàn)。那時，這種變化預(yù)示著民族主義的崛起并導(dǎo)致戰(zhàn)爭。歷史是否會重演?
The global elite increasingly fears so. The World Economic Forum on Wednesday released its annual survey of the main concerns of its members.
全球精英越來越擔(dān)心歷史再次重演。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇(WEF)上周三公布了對其成員的主要擔(dān)憂的年度調(diào)查結(jié)果。
Economic and financial risks used to be at the forefront of delegates’ minds. At the start of this decade, for example, issues such as banking crises, rising debt and slow growth topped the rankings.
經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融風(fēng)險曾經(jīng)是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇代表們擔(dān)心的首要問題。例如，在本10年之初，銀行業(yè)危機(jī)、債務(wù)增加以及增長緩慢等問題排在前列。
Yet in 2018 those financial risks no longer appear on the dashboard; or certainly not close to the top. Instead, business executives, financial titans and political pundits fret about the issues that emphatically cannot be solved — or even modelled — by economists and financiers.
然而，2018年，這些金融風(fēng)險不再出現(xiàn)在代表們的腦海里;或者肯定不會排在前面。企業(yè)高管、金融巨擘和政治專家擔(dān)心的是那些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和金融家斷然無法解決(甚至構(gòu)建模型)的問題。
WEF members fear that inequality is sparking dangerous social fractures and the populism revealed by the Bridgewater chart. They are deeply concerned about “extreme weather events”, “natural disasters” and “failure of climate change mitigation”.
世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇成員擔(dān)心，不平等正引發(fā)危險的社會分裂以及Bridgewater那張圖表所揭示的民粹主義。讓他們深感擔(dān)憂的是“極端天氣事件”、“自然災(zāi)害”和“氣候變化未能減緩”。
Yet the other threat cited is one that barely rated a few years ago: war. The biggest perceived danger of 2018, in terms of impact, is that somebody uses weapons of mass destruction. There is also rising concern about its digital proxy: cyber attacks.
然而，他們列出的另一項威脅在幾年前幾乎都沒有提到：戰(zhàn)爭。他們感到2018年最大的危險(從影響來看)是有人會使用大規(guī)模殺傷性武器。越來越多的人還擔(dān)心戰(zhàn)爭的數(shù)字代理：網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊。
Nearly all — 93 per cent — WEF members think that political and economic conflicts between countries will increase this year; 79 per cent believe there is a rising danger of military conflicts; and 78 per cent expect that large countries will be drawn into regional battles. Unsurprisingly, this leaves two-thirds of WEF delegates nursing the gloomy conclusion that the world will be riskier in 2018 than last year.
世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇幾乎所有成員(93%)都認(rèn)為，今年，國家之間的政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)沖突會增多：79%的人認(rèn)為，軍事沖突的風(fēng)險日益增加，78%的人預(yù)測，大國將卷入地區(qū)戰(zhàn)爭。毫不令人意外的是，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇有三分之二的代表得出悲觀的結(jié)論：今年全球風(fēng)險將高于去年。
It is entirely possible that this perception is wrong. One longstanding joke about the WEF, which will undoubtedly surface again at next week’s summit, is that investors should treat the Davos debate as a contra-indicator, as it usually tends to miss the important issues of the day.
這種看法完全有可能是錯誤的。長期以來有關(guān)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇的一個笑話(這次峰會上肯定會再次出現(xiàn))是，投資者應(yīng)把達(dá)沃斯辯論視為“反指標(biāo)”，因為它往往會錯過當(dāng)下的重要問題。
Although charts such as Bridgewater’s are fascinating, the 1930s is not the only decade that investors need to study. In the late 19th century (before electoral data could be compiled), the US also had a financial crisis that created populism; but that time it did not lead to war.
盡管Bridgewater等機(jī)構(gòu)的圖表很有趣，但上世紀(jì)30年代并非投資者需要研究的唯一十年。19世紀(jì)末(在選舉數(shù)據(jù)可匯編之前)，美國還遭遇過一場金融危機(jī)，催生了民粹主義;但那一次沒有導(dǎo)致戰(zhàn)爭。
Even if the WEF survey is crude, it does reflect a consensus towards more conflict that is already entrenched. There is a cloud of speculation in Washington that Mr Trump is considering unilateral action against North Korea, even as Saudi Arabia sucks America into a war with Iran, and tension escalates between China and the US.
即便世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇的調(diào)查有些粗糙，但它確實反映出沖突增加的共識，這種共識已根深蒂固。華盛頓彌漫著一種猜測，認(rèn)為特朗普正考慮對朝鮮發(fā)起單邊行動，即便同時沙特阿拉伯正把美國拉入與伊朗的戰(zhàn)爭，同時中國與美國的緊張關(guān)系加劇。
Next week, Mr Trump will travel to Davos and, undoubtedly, will try to extend some olive branches. But he will face deep scepticism: a Gallup poll published on Thursday shows that confidence in US leadership has collapsed around the world in the past year. Fractures abound.
特朗普本周將出席達(dá)沃斯論壇，他肯定會努力遞出幾枝橄欖枝。但他將面臨嚴(yán)重懷疑：上周四發(fā)表的一份蓋洛普(Gallup)調(diào)查顯示，過去一年全球?qū)γ绹I(lǐng)導(dǎo)層的信心大幅下滑。到處是分裂。
Even if Davos can sometimes operate as an echo chamber, the WEF survey should give investors pause for thought, particularly when they look at the sky-high level of asset prices in western markets, despite low levels of volatility. It should also spur debate among investment committees and executives about whether they can create hedges to cope with this deeply fractured — and potentially dangerous — world.
即便達(dá)沃斯有時可以充當(dāng)一個“回音室”，但世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇的這項調(diào)查應(yīng)讓投資者停下來思考，尤其是在他們目睹西方市場資產(chǎn)價格高企(盡管波動性低)的情況下。它還應(yīng)促使投資委員會和高管們就他們能否建立對沖應(yīng)對這個嚴(yán)重分裂(還可能危險)的世界展開辯論。
Traditionally, the answer has been “no”. Investors are bad at preparing for tail risks; war is not an environmental danger that can be modelled. But it is a fair bet that 2018 will be a year when the financial industry scrambles to offer a plethora of Armageddon hedges; indeed, the sales pitch will undoubtedly start in Davos next week.
過去，答案一直是否定的。投資者不善于為尾部風(fēng)險做準(zhǔn)備;戰(zhàn)爭并非可以建模的環(huán)境危險。但我們可以有把握地說，2018年，金融行業(yè)將爭相提供大量對沖“世界末日”的產(chǎn)品;實際上，這些產(chǎn)品的銷售宣傳肯定將在達(dá)沃斯開始。
We should hope — and pray — that this chatter helps to focus minds among the global elite in a way that at least delays the impending apocalypse.
我們應(yīng)該希望和祈禱這種辯論有助于全球精英集中思想，至少推遲已在逼近的“世界末日”的到來。
In the meantime, keep a close eye on what Davos is not worrying about enough this year: that pesky matter of global finance, particularly in places such as China.
與此同時，密切關(guān)注達(dá)沃斯今年擔(dān)心不夠的事情吧——也就是全球金融這個大麻煩，尤其是在中國等地。
