兩孩政策生效以來(lái)中國(guó)出生人口首次下降

The annual number of births in China has fallen for the first time since Beijing relaxed its one-child policy, suggesting that the reform has failed to reverse declining fertility rates that economists warn are a long-term threat to the country’s development.

中國(guó)的年度出生人數(shù)出現(xiàn)自政府放寬獨(dú)生子女政策以來(lái)的首次下降，似乎表明這一改革未能扭轉(zhuǎn)生育率的下降。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們警告稱(chēng)，這對(duì)中國(guó)的發(fā)展是一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期威脅。

There were 17.23m births in China in 2017, down from 17.86m the previous year, the country’s national statistics bureau said on Thursday.

中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局周四表示，2017年中國(guó)出生人口1723萬(wàn)人，比上年的1786萬(wàn)人有所下降。

The ruling Communist party’s policy allowing all couples to have two children came into force in 2016, leading to a 1.3m increase in births that year compared with 2015.

執(zhí)政的共產(chǎn)黨允許所有夫婦生育兩個(gè)孩子的政策在2016年生效，導(dǎo)致該年出生人數(shù)比2015年增加130萬(wàn)人。

Analysts said that the rise in births in 2016 was probably a one-off as couples who had been waiting to have a second child did so as soon as the policy changed.

分析人士稱(chēng)，2016年出生人數(shù)的上升很可能是一次性的，因?yàn)榈却诙サ姆驄D在政策改變后馬上利用了該政策。

“Some people took advantage of the lifting of the ban but most Chinese, even in rural areas, are concerned about how to pay for education . . . Its very hard to encourage people to have more children,” said Martin Whyte, a professor of sociology at Harvard University.

“有一部分人利用了禁令解除，但大多數(shù)中國(guó)人——甚至在農(nóng)村也是如此——都擔(dān)心如何支付教育費(fèi)用……很難鼓勵(lì)人們生更多孩子，”哈佛大學(xué)(Harvard University)社會(huì)學(xué)教授懷默霆(Martin King Whyte)表示。

Economists have warned that falling birth rates in China are leading to a rapid ageing of the population and creating a shortage of workers. That is placing a greater burden on social services even while per capita incomes in the country lag behind developed nations, which have struggled with declining fertility rates for decades.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們警告稱(chēng)，中國(guó)的出生率下降正在導(dǎo)致人口迅速老齡化和勞動(dòng)力短缺。這給社會(huì)服務(wù)帶來(lái)了更大的負(fù)擔(dān)，而與此同時(shí)中國(guó)的人均收入仍低于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家水平，后者竭力應(yīng)對(duì)生育率下降已有幾十年之久。

“China is experiencing problems that mostly more developed countries have experienced for a long time,” added Mr Whyte.

“中國(guó)正在經(jīng)歷以更發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家為主的其他一些國(guó)家早就遇到的問(wèn)題，”懷默霆補(bǔ)充說(shuō)。

By about the middle of this century, one in every three Chinese people is forecast to be aged more than 60. Beijing expects the country’s population to peak in about 2030 at 1.4bn, before going into a gradual decline.

到本世紀(jì)中葉前后，預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)三分之一的人口年齡將在60歲以上。北京方面預(yù)計(jì)，中國(guó)人口將在2030年左右達(dá)到14億的頂峰，然后逐年下降。

Analysts say shifts in attitudes, such as a greater emphasis on investing in children’s education, are lowering the country’s fertility rate. Some demographers say that these trends were evident even before the one-child policy was introduced in 1979, meaning the demographic shift would have happened regardless.

分析人士表示，態(tài)度的轉(zhuǎn)變，比如更加重視投資于孩子的教育，正在降低中國(guó)的生育率。一些人口結(jié)構(gòu)專(zhuān)家稱(chēng)，這些趨勢(shì)即使在1979年實(shí)行獨(dú)生子女政策之前就顯而易見(jiàn)，這意味著人口結(jié)構(gòu)的變化無(wú)論如何都會(huì)發(fā)生。

Stuart Gietel-Basten, a demography expert at the University of Oxford, said: “Starting a family and having children in China is really hard work . . . Age at marriage is creeping up finally, which will also depress fertility rates.”

牛津大學(xué)(University of Oxford)的人口結(jié)構(gòu)問(wèn)題專(zhuān)家斯圖爾特•吉特爾-巴斯滕(Stuart Gietel-Basten)表示：“成家和生孩子在中國(guó)是非常艱辛的事情……結(jié)婚年齡終于逐漸推遲了，這也會(huì)壓低生育率。”

To counter the falling birth rate, some Chinese commentators are advocating tax breaks and subsidies to encourage couples to have more children.

為了應(yīng)對(duì)出生率下降，中國(guó)一些評(píng)論人士呼吁出臺(tái)減稅和補(bǔ)貼措施，以鼓勵(lì)夫妻生育更多孩子。

The introduction of the two-child policy affected China’s urban residents more than those in rural areas, mainly because the policy was not enforced as stringently outside the cities.

實(shí)行兩孩政策對(duì)中國(guó)城市居民的影響要大于對(duì)農(nóng)村居民的影響，主要原因是當(dāng)初獨(dú)生子女政策在城市以外的執(zhí)行力度較低。

But Chinese city dwellers tend to have a preference for fewer children, partly because they perceive the costs of raising a child as prohibitive and because women in cities are more educated. “The change disproportionately affected urban couples who have lower fertility preference anyway,” added Mr Gietel-Basten.

但中國(guó)城市居民傾向于少生，部分原因是他們認(rèn)為撫養(yǎng)孩子的成本太高，而且城市里的女性受教育程度較高。“政策變化對(duì)城市夫婦的影響超出比例，而這些人無(wú)論如何都喜歡少生，”吉特爾-巴斯滕補(bǔ)充道。