德國人的經(jīng)濟觀沒錯

At the height of the euro crisis, Mario Monti, the former Italian prime minister, liked to remark that part of the problem was that “for Germans, economics is still part of moral philosophy”. The suggestion was that the German instinct was to assign blame rather than to fix the problem — and was followed up with a reminder that the German words for guilt and debt are the same. 、

歐元危機最嚴重的時候，意大利前總理馬里奧•蒙蒂(Mario Monti)喜歡說，部分問題在于“對德國人而言，經(jīng)濟學仍是道德哲學的一部分”。他的言下之意是，德國人的本能是責怪別人，而非解決問題——他接著又提醒人們，德語中“罪”和“債”是同一個詞。

But the real punchline is that the Germans are right. Economics is — or should be — part of moral philosophy.

但這句妙語的真正點睛之處在于，德國人沒錯——經(jīng)濟學是(或者說應該是)道德哲學的一部分。

Successful politicians have to do more than just deliver economic growth. They also need to offer voters a vision of the economy that makes moral sense — in which virtue is rewarded and vice is punished. Ever since the financial crisis 10 years ago, mainstream politicians in the west have lost that vital ability. The belief that the economic system is unjust has stoked the rise of rightwing and leftwing populism across the west.

成功的政治人物要做的不僅僅是帶來經(jīng)濟增長。他們還需要為選民提供一種在道德上說得通的經(jīng)濟愿景——在這種愿景中，美德會得到回報，罪惡會受到懲罰。自10年前金融危機爆發(fā)以來，西方主流政治人物已經(jīng)喪失這一至關(guān)重要的能力。認為當前經(jīng)濟制度不公正的觀點，助長了西方各國右翼和左翼民粹主義的興起。

As Mr Monti implied, the idea that economics needs to be rooted in a moral system is nothing new. Adam Smith, arguably the most important economic thinker ever, was a professor of moral philosophy at Glasgow University. His famous observation that individuals working on their own behalf would contribute to the general good, is underpinned by a theory of moral sentiments.

正如蒙蒂的話所暗示的，經(jīng)濟學需要扎根于道德體系的觀點并不新鮮?？胺Q史上最重要經(jīng)濟思想家的亞當•斯密(Adam Smith)，當年就是格拉斯哥大學(Glasgow University)的道德哲學教授。他的著名觀點——為自身利益工作的個人，將為整體利益作出貢獻——是由他的“道德情操論”支撐的。

Karl Marx’s followers went to the barricades because they believed that communism was morally superior to capitalism — not because they were inspired by Marxist economics. Friedrich Hayek was a passionate anti-Marxist, who won the Nobel Prize for economics. He was also a moral philosopher, whose The Road to Serfdom made an ethical case against state control of the economy.

卡爾•馬克思(Karl Marx)的追隨者們走上街頭革命，因為他們相信共產(chǎn)主義在道德上優(yōu)于資本主義——而非因為他們受到馬克思主義經(jīng)濟學的啟迪。諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學獎得主弗里德里希•哈耶克(Friedrich Hayek)是一位充滿激情的反馬克思主義者。他也是一位道德哲學家，他撰寫的《通往奴役之路》(The Road to Serfdom)從道德角度出發(fā)，駁斥了國家控制經(jīng)濟的體制。

Until the shocks of 2008, centrist politicians in the west were able to offer a morally coherent view of the economy that delivered them electoral success. A free-market economy was held to reward effort and success and to spread opportunity. Globalisation — the creation of a global market system — was defended as a moral project, since it involved reducing inequality and poverty across the world.

在2008年的大沖擊之前，西方中間派政治人物拿得出一套在道德上能夠自圓其說的經(jīng)濟觀念，這讓他們贏得選舉。堅持自由市場經(jīng)濟是為了獎勵努力和成功，并讓更多人獲得機會。全球化(創(chuàng)建全球市場體系)被捍衛(wèi)者稱為一項道德工程，因為它涉及在世界各地消除不平等和貧困。

After the financial crisis, however, the “globalists” (to use a Trumpian term) began to lose the moral arguments. The fact that banks were bailed out as living standards stagnated, offended many voters’ idea of natural justice. When nobody at the apex of a failed system was sent to jail, the door was opened for a politician, such as Donald Trump, who argued that “the system is rigged”.

然而，金融危機之后，“全球主義者”(借用特朗普的術(shù)語)開始在道德上失據(jù)。銀行紛紛得到救助而民眾生活水平停滯不前，這一事實冒犯了許多選民對自然正義的理解。當一個失敗體制的最高層沒有任何人被投入監(jiān)獄，宣稱“體制受到操縱”的唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)這樣的政客就有了號召力。

The success or failure of Mr Trump’s tax reforms, which are likely to go through this week, will depend to a great extent on whether he can convince voters that he is helping to make the system fairer. The Republican argument is that the new taxation system will reward hard work and reduce the burden of the state. The Democrats’ response is that the new tax reforms further rig the system in favour of the rich.

特朗普稅改(很可能在本周獲得通過)的成敗，在很大程度上將取決于他能否讓選民相信，他正在幫助使這一體制更加公平。共和黨辯稱，新稅制將獎勵辛勤工作，并減輕國家負擔。民主黨人的回應是，新的稅改將朝著有利于富人的方向進一步操縱體制。

At the moment, a majority of Americans seem to agree with the proposition that the Trump tax reforms largely favour the wealthy. If that interpretation takes hold, voters may drift away from the rightwing populism of Mr Trump, towards the leftwing populism of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. The Sanders and Warren campaigns have also capitalised on the sense that America’s economic system is rigged. They have focused in particular on generational injustice — which leaves many young voters burdened with student debt and insecure jobs.

眼下，大多數(shù)美國人似乎都認同這樣一個觀點，即特朗普稅改主要照顧富人。如果這種解釋站穩(wěn)腳跟，選民可能會告別特朗普的右翼民粹主義，轉(zhuǎn)投伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)和伊麗莎白•沃倫(Elizabeth Warren)的左翼民粹主義。桑德斯和沃倫的競選活動也利用了美國經(jīng)濟體制被操縱的感覺。他們格外關(guān)注代際不公正——這使得很多年輕選民背負著學生貸款的重擔，而工作又不穩(wěn)定。

These arguments resonate not just in the US but right across the west. In Britain, Nigel Farage’s UK Independence party and the Brexiters seized the banner of rightwing populism, while the leftwing populism of Jeremy Corbyn took control of the Labour party. In France, the rightwing and leftwing populism of Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon respectively captured more than 40 per cent of the vote in the first round of this year’s presidential election. Add in other fringe parties and some 50 per cent of the French, British and American electorates are now clearly tempted by populist, anti-system politicians.

這些觀點不僅在美國引起共鳴，在西方各國都很盛行。在英國，奈杰爾•法拉奇(Nigel Farage)領(lǐng)導的英國獨立黨(UKIP)等退歐派扛起了右翼民粹主義的旗幟，而左翼民粹主義的杰里米•科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn)控制了工黨(Labour)。在法國，右翼民粹主義的馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)和左翼民粹主義的讓-呂克•梅朗雄(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)在今年總統(tǒng)大選的第一輪投票中總計得到了40%以上的選票。再加上其他邊緣政黨，法國、英國和美國都有大約50%的選民如今明顯受到民粹主義的反體制政客的誘惑。

In Germany, however, the rightwing and leftwing variants of populism are still getting well under 25 per cent of the vote — despite the radicalising effect of the refugee crisis. In part, that is down to the success of the German economy. But it is also because Angela Merkel, the chancellor, realised that, in handling the euro crisis, she had to take account of ordinary voters’ sense of right and wrong. Many economists in the US and southern Europe argued that the crisis could only be solved by formally writing off a lot of Greek debt. They also made the case that German bankers were more to blame for the crisis than Greek pensioners. But Ms Merkel knew that, inside Germany, the argument that hard-working Germans should not be asked to write off the debts of wasteful Greeks was too powerful to tackle head-on. She could only make progress in tackling the euro crisis by respecting basic ideas about effort and reward.

然而在德國，盡管難民危機帶來了激進化的影響，但右翼和左翼民粹主義代表得到的選票仍然遠低于25%。在某種程度上，這可以歸因于德國經(jīng)濟的成功。但這也是因為德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)在處理歐元危機時意識到，她必須考慮到普通選民的是非感。當時美國以及南歐的很多經(jīng)濟學家認為，歐元危機只能通過正式大規(guī)模注銷希臘債務的方式解決。他們還指出，相比希臘退休者，德國的銀行家對那場危機負有更大責任。但是默克爾知道，德國國內(nèi)很多人認為，辛勤工作的德國人不應該被要求減記鋪張浪費的希臘人的債務，這種觀點太過強大，不宜正面對抗。她只有尊重關(guān)于努力和回報的基本理念，才能在解決歐元危機問題上取得進展。

A whole generation of western politicians has grown up with the Clintonian slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid”, ringing in their heads. But in today’s politics, “the economy” is not just about growth. It is also about justice.

整整一代的西方政客在成長過程中深受克林頓的口號“笨蛋，關(guān)鍵在于經(jīng)濟”的影響。但在當今的政治中，“經(jīng)濟”不只關(guān)乎增長。它也關(guān)乎公正。