FT社評(píng)：特朗普點(diǎn)燃巴以問題定時(shí)炸彈引信
美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)決定兌現(xiàn)競(jìng)選承諾，承認(rèn)耶路撒冷為以色列首都，并最終把美國(guó)大使館遷至耶路撒冷，這是一種外交方面的故意破壞行動(dòng)。此舉更加讓人難以理解之處在于，可能誰也不會(huì)從中受益，至少對(duì)和平感興趣的人不會(huì)，就連特朗普本人也不會(huì)。
He has united almost everyone against him, including his closest allies in the region, provoked outrage among Muslims, provided fuel for extremists and, not for the first time, diminished America in the eyes of the world. Nor has he served Israel’s interests well — though some Israelis might disagree.
他讓幾乎所有人團(tuán)結(jié)起來反對(duì)他(包括他在中東地區(qū)的最親密盟友)，激起了穆斯林的憤怒，為極端主義者提供了刺激，而且并非第一次在全世界眼里讓美國(guó)的形象受損。這也并不很符合以色列的利益——盡管有些以色列人也許不這么認(rèn)為。
Jerusalem has been at the centre of peacemaking efforts in the Middle East ever since partition in 1947 when sensitivities surrounding the city’s status (and its importance as a holy site for Jews, Muslims and Christians alike) led the UN to treat it initially as a separate entity from the Jewish state. Although Israel has always claimed the Holy city as its capital, no country has, until now, recognised it as such.
自1947年分治以來，耶路撒冷一直處于中東和平努力的中心。當(dāng)年，圍繞耶路撒冷地位(及其作為猶太人、穆斯林和基督徒的共同圣城的重要意義)的敏感性，導(dǎo)致聯(lián)合國(guó)最開始把它視為與以色列分開的單獨(dú)實(shí)體。盡管以色列始終聲稱這座圣城是自己的首都，但迄今沒有一個(gè)國(guó)家承認(rèn)這一點(diǎn)。
This is for good reason — the same reason that other US presidents declined to honour the 1995 act of Congress acknowledging hard facts on the ground, and seeking to move the US embassy. To recognise Israel’s claims to the city is not only to stymie Palestinian hopes to claim their own capital in occupied East Jerusalem and tear up an agreement in the 1993 Oslo peace accord, which held that the city’s final status would be settled by negotiation. It is also to unite Muslims against Israel at a time anti-Israeli sentiment has been relatively subdued.
這是有充分理由的，其他美國(guó)總統(tǒng)拒絕履行1995年的國(guó)會(huì)法案，也是出于同樣的理由——該法案宣稱承認(rèn)當(dāng)?shù)罔F的事實(shí)，并尋求把美國(guó)大使館搬到耶路撒冷。認(rèn)可以色列對(duì)耶路撒冷的主權(quán)要求不僅僅會(huì)破壞巴勒斯坦人在被占領(lǐng)的東耶路撒冷主張自己首都的希望，并且撕毀了1993年的奧斯陸和平協(xié)議(該協(xié)議規(guī)定耶路撒冷的最終地位將通過協(xié)商來確定)，還會(huì)在反以情緒已相對(duì)減弱之際讓穆斯林聯(lián)合起來反對(duì)以色列。
Mr Trump has been warned about this unequivocally this week. The Turks have threatened to sever relations with Israel. Saeb Erekat, the PLO negotiator, said that should the US go ahead with the move it would disqualify itself from “any role in any initiative towards achieving a just and lasting peace”. Hamas, the Islamist group that controls the Gaza strip, has threatened a new intifada. Nor could King Abdullah of Jordan, which has a peace treaty with Israel, stand by. He cautioned that recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s would play into the hands of terrorists and enable them to “spread their ideologies”.
本周，特朗普在這個(gè)問題上受到了明確的警告。土耳其人威脅中斷與以色列的關(guān)系。巴解組織(PLO)談判代表賽義布•埃雷卡特(Saeb Erekat)表示，如果美國(guó)推進(jìn)這一行動(dòng)，那么美國(guó)將失去“在任何旨在達(dá)成公正、持久和平的倡議中扮演角色”的資格?？刂浦由车貛У囊了固m組織哈馬斯(Hamas)威脅發(fā)動(dòng)新的起義。與以色列簽署了和平條約的約旦國(guó)王阿卜杜拉(King Abdullah)也沒有袖手旁觀。阿卜杜拉警告稱，承認(rèn)耶路撒冷屬于以色列將正中恐怖主義者下懷，使他們得以“傳播自己的意識(shí)形態(tài)”。
Moreover, for all his words about not taking a position on the city’s final status, Mr Trump appears to have pre-empted his own plans to broker agreement between Israel and the Palestinians by resolving one of the most explosive issues in Israel’s favour. For someone who prides himself on being the consummate deal maker it is odd that he should surrender this card before negotiations have even begun.
此外，雖然特朗普說過不對(duì)耶路撒冷最終地位采取立場(chǎng)，但他以對(duì)以色列有利的立場(chǎng)解決最有爆炸性的問題之一，似乎預(yù)先廢棄了他自己的撮合以色列和巴勒斯坦達(dá)成協(xié)議的計(jì)劃。對(duì)于自詡為完美交易者的人來說，在談判甚至尚未開啟之際就放棄了這張牌，這是很奇怪的。
It is odd too because it complicates life for Saudi Arabia, Mr Trump’s chosen interlocutors in the region. The Saudis, who have been playing a role in the evolution of the latest US peace plans, are also strongly opposed. They have little choice. The ruling al-Saud family are not only royals. The Saudi king is the self-styled leader of Sunni Islam and al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem is considered the third holiest site in Islam, after the mosques at Mecca and Medina.
奇怪之處還在于，這會(huì)令特朗普在中東選定的對(duì)話者沙特的處境變得復(fù)雜。一直在美國(guó)最新和平計(jì)劃的演化中發(fā)揮作用的沙特人也持強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)態(tài)度。他們幾乎沒有選擇。執(zhí)政的沙特王室不僅僅是王室。沙特國(guó)王是自封的伊斯蘭遜尼派領(lǐng)袖，而耶路撒冷的阿克薩清真寺(al-Aqsa mosque)被視為僅次于麥加圣寺和麥地那先知寺的伊斯蘭第三大圣寺。
This can only be a blow to the Saudis, especially Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has been acting as go between with the Palestinians and Jared Kushner, Mr Trump’s son-in-law and envoy to the region.
這對(duì)沙特人、尤其是穆罕默德•本•薩勒曼王儲(chǔ)(Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman)只能構(gòu)成打擊——他此前一直在充當(dāng)巴勒斯坦人和特朗普女婿、中東特使賈里德•庫(kù)什納(Jared Kushner)之間的牽線人。
Most of all, by taking sides on an issue central to the Israel-Palestine conflict Mr Trump has exploded any residual notion that Washington can act as honest broker. The status of Jerusalem has always been a ticking time bomb. The fear now is that the US president has lit the fuse.
最重要的是，特朗普在巴以沖突的核心問題上站隊(duì)，已爆掉了人們對(duì)于美國(guó)可能充當(dāng)誠(chéng)實(shí)調(diào)解人的任何殘存想法。耶路撒冷地位問題一直是一枚滴答作響的定時(shí)炸彈。如今令人憂慮的是，這位美國(guó)總統(tǒng)已點(diǎn)燃了引信。
