FT社評(píng)：中國(guó)需要的債務(wù)平衡術(shù)

Why continue working when you are guaranteed a monthly income?” So asks Xu Yongan, a 55-year-old former steelworker from Anhui province and the recipient of an employee buyout. It may seem a bit puzzling that in China, the factory to the world, factory workers are paid to stay home. The solution to the puzzle — as to most puzzles about the Chinese economy — comes down to debt.

“如果你每個(gè)月都有收入，為什么還要工作?”許永安(音譯)這樣問(wèn)。他現(xiàn)年55歲，來(lái)自安徽省，以前是一位鋼鐵工人，目前接受了一項(xiàng)提前退休補(bǔ)償安排。這似乎有些令人費(fèi)解：在中國(guó)這個(gè)世界工廠，居然要出錢讓工人們別來(lái)上班。這一難題的解決方法——就像中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的大多數(shù)難題一樣——歸根結(jié)底在于債務(wù)。

The government worries that years of investment-led growth have left the country with a heavy debt burden and lots of excess industrial capacity. It was a government-led effort to shut inefficient factories that led to Mr Xu’s early retirement.

中國(guó)政府擔(dān)心，多年來(lái)靠投資拉動(dòng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)導(dǎo)致中國(guó)債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)沉重、工業(yè)產(chǎn)能嚴(yán)重過(guò)剩。導(dǎo)致許永安提前退休的，正是中國(guó)政府領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的關(guān)停低效工廠的行動(dòng)。

That Chinese debt has grown to dangerous levels is beyond dispute. Non-financial sector debt has gone from $6tn in 2007 to nearly $29tn today, according to data from the Bank of International Settlements. The debt, equivalent to 260 per cent of gross domestic product, has brought with it dramatic declines in credit efficiency. The International Monetary Fund points out that in 2016 it took four units of credit to raise GDP by one unit. A decade ago the ratio was 1.3 to one.

中國(guó)的債務(wù)水平已上升到危險(xiǎn)級(jí)別，這一點(diǎn)是無(wú)可爭(zhēng)議的。根據(jù)國(guó)際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)的數(shù)據(jù)，中國(guó)非金融部門的債務(wù)已從2007年的6萬(wàn)億美元上升到如今的近29萬(wàn)億美元。這些債務(wù)相當(dāng)于中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的260%，帶來(lái)了信貸效率的大幅降低。國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)指出，2016年中國(guó)需要4個(gè)單位的信貸才能實(shí)現(xiàn)1個(gè)單位的GDP增長(zhǎng)。十年前，這個(gè)比例是1.3：1。

China’s debt-to-GDP ratio is not far from that of the US, for example. But, as Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank governor, emphasised last month, China’s companies bear an extraordinary high portion of the burden. Corporate debt levels at 160 per cent of GDP make it the most leveraged corporate sector in the world.

中國(guó)的債務(wù)與GDP之比跟美國(guó)差得并不多。但就像中國(guó)央行行長(zhǎng)周小川上個(gè)月強(qiáng)調(diào)的那樣，中國(guó)企業(yè)承擔(dān)的債務(wù)比例不同尋常地高。中國(guó)的企業(yè)部門是全世界杠桿率最高的：公司債務(wù)與GDP之比為160%。

A year ago the situation looked even less tenable than it does today. Since then, the efforts to rein in excess capacity seem to have had some effect. Commodity prices have firmed, helping the big state-supported industrial companies. Private company growth (particularly in technology, as exemplified by groups such as Alibaba and Tencent) have helped reduce overall leverage levels. If China is to grow its way out of its debt problems, these trends must continue. Another potentially helpful factor is rural growth: over the past decade, China has promoted the transfer of agricultural land usage rights among farmers, resulting in bigger farms, increased investment and higher returns. Data on the scale of such transfers is scarce but an online broker, tuliu.com, has transferred a cumulative 6.8m hectares since it started up in 2009.

比起當(dāng)下，一年前的形勢(shì)更不穩(wěn)定。自那時(shí)起，收縮過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能的舉措似乎取得了一定效果。大宗商品價(jià)格企穩(wěn)，對(duì)國(guó)家支持的大型工業(yè)企業(yè)有所幫助。私營(yíng)企業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)(特別是像阿里巴巴(Alibaba)和騰訊(Tencent)這樣的科技企業(yè))令整體杠桿水平有所降低。如果中國(guó)要靠增長(zhǎng)擺脫債務(wù)問(wèn)題，那么這些趨勢(shì)就必須持續(xù)下去。另一個(gè)潛在的有利因素是農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)：在過(guò)去的十年中，中國(guó)一直推動(dòng)農(nóng)用土地使用權(quán)在農(nóng)業(yè)人口間流轉(zhuǎn)，導(dǎo)致農(nóng)場(chǎng)規(guī)模擴(kuò)大，投資增加，回報(bào)提升。有關(guān)這些流轉(zhuǎn)規(guī)模的數(shù)據(jù)很少，但提供線上中介服務(wù)的土流網(wǎng)(tuliu.com)自2009年上線以來(lái)，累計(jì)交易面積已達(dá)680萬(wàn)公頃。

It reassures many China bulls that, due to its current account surplus and accompanying high savings rate, China has lent effectively all of the money to itself. But all the same, if the debtors cannot service their debts, a painful restructuring will be necessary. To avoid a crisis the government will have to tread carefully. The tentative withdrawal of credit from the economy is making the bond market jumpy. The central bank yesterday added more reserves into the financial system than it has in almost a year, to stem weakness in government bond prices. But liquidity injections are not a long-term solution to a debt problem. Neither is moving debt around by, for example, issuing asset-backed securities, which are increasingly popular in China.

這讓許多看好中國(guó)的人感到安心，由于經(jīng)常賬戶盈余并且儲(chǔ)蓄率高，中國(guó)所有的錢事實(shí)上都借給了自己。但如果債務(wù)人無(wú)法償還債務(wù)，艱難的重組依然是不可避免要面對(duì)的。為避免危機(jī)，中國(guó)政府必須謹(jǐn)慎行事。試探性從經(jīng)濟(jì)中收回貸款正讓債券市場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)戰(zhàn)兢兢。為抑制政府債券價(jià)格的疲軟，中國(guó)央行昨天向金融系統(tǒng)注入資金，其規(guī)模為近一年來(lái)最大的一次。但流動(dòng)性注入并不是解決債務(wù)問(wèn)題的長(zhǎng)久之計(jì)。拆東墻補(bǔ)西墻(例如在中國(guó)越來(lái)越流行的發(fā)行資產(chǎn)支持證券)同樣不能解決問(wèn)題。

So the government must continue to move deliberately and hope the centre holds. It will need to stay disciplined about keeping a lid on loan growth, industrial capacity and — most importantly — the shadow banking system of dodgy fund companies, trusts, and wealth management products. Slow and steady progress these front, even if the economy does not grow as quickly as previously, will send a reassuring message to global investors, and minimise the chances that China’s debt addiction will require a more radical form of treatment.

所以中國(guó)政府必須小心行事，并寄希望于核心不倒。中國(guó)政府必須要嚴(yán)格恪守對(duì)貸款增長(zhǎng)、工業(yè)產(chǎn)能及——最重要的——由可疑的基金公司、信托及理財(cái)產(chǎn)品構(gòu)成的影子銀行系統(tǒng)的限制。即使中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度不及以往，在這些領(lǐng)域取得緩慢而穩(wěn)步的進(jìn)展也會(huì)向全球的投資者們傳遞一個(gè)令人寬慰的信息，并將需要通過(guò)更激進(jìn)療法才能讓中國(guó)戒除債務(wù)癮的可能性降到最低。