東南亞拯救英國？做夢去吧

Malaysia is a land of driving on the left, three-point British-style plugs and an elite with plummy English accents who can discourse knowledgeably on Boris Johnson’s career plans. There’s even still an ancient concrete cricket pitch on Merdeka Square, the spot in Kuala Lumpur where the Union Jack was lowered on the night of Malaysia’s independence in 1957. And the country’s prime minister, Najib Razak, is an old boy of Britain’s Malvern College and Nottingham University.

馬來西亞采用英式三腳插頭，汽車在道路左側(cè)行駛，精英們用拿腔拿調(diào)的英語口音對鮑里斯•約翰遜(Boris Johnson，倫敦前市長、現(xiàn)任英國外交大臣——譯者注)的職業(yè)計劃發(fā)表內(nèi)行的見解。吉隆坡的獨立廣場(Merdeka Square)甚至仍有一個古老的混凝土板球場。1957年，在馬來西亞獨立的那個夜晚，英國國旗(Union Jack)就在這里落下。該國總理總理納吉布•拉扎克(Najib Razak)是英國馬萊文學院(Malvern College)和諾丁漢大學(Nottingham University)的校友。

If Brexiters have a plan, it involves upwardly mobile former colonies such as Malaysia and Singapore. These are supposed to replace European countries as the UK’s key trading partners. Many Brexiters also imagine “global Britain” as a swashbuckling trade hub à la Singapore. Daniel Hannan, theorist of Brexit, launched his free-trading think-tank last month by saying, “I’m looking at [the] high commissioner of Singapore [in the front row]. They have gone from being half as rich as us to twice as rich. What was the magic formula? Just do it. They dropped their barriers.”

如果支持英國退歐者有一份計劃，該計劃會涉及馬來西亞和新加坡等處于升勢的前殖民地。它們理應(yīng)取代歐洲國家，成為英國的關(guān)鍵貿(mào)易伙伴。許多支持退歐者還把“全球的英國”想象為一個像新加坡那樣敢做敢為的貿(mào)易樞紐。退歐派理論家丹尼爾•漢南(Daniel Hannan)上月在成立他的支持自由貿(mào)易的智庫時表示，“我在看著(坐在前排的)新加坡高級專員。新加坡的富有程度已從我們的一半變?yōu)槲覀兊膬杀丁ＤЯγ胤绞鞘裁?只管去做。他們移除了自己的壁壘。”

Can Southeast Asia save Brexit? Visiting the region last week, I asked local investors and officials what they thought. Certainly, Britons once dominated business there. “When I first came to Kuala Lumpur in 1968, the bus tickets were printed in London,” one retired businessman told me, “and the British trading houses were everything.” That’s over. Most Malaysian elites now regard the UK chiefly as a place to study, buy property and watch football. Today the UK is only Malaysia’s 17th largest trading partner.

東南亞能夠拯救英國退歐嗎?最近訪問該地區(qū)時，我詢問了當?shù)赝顿Y者和官員的想法。無疑，英國人曾經(jīng)主宰那里的商業(yè)。“當我在1968年第一次到吉隆坡時，公交車車票還是在倫敦印刷的，”一位退休商人告訴我，“英國商行主宰著一切。”那種局面已結(jié)束了。如今，大多數(shù)馬來西亞精英主要把英國視為購買房產(chǎn)、觀看足球賽、讓子女留學的地方。英國現(xiàn)在只是馬來西亞的第17大貿(mào)易伙伴。

Might that be because we’ve been held back by the EU, which can’t even conclude free-trade deals with Malaysia and Singapore? Not exactly. Germany and the Netherlands out-trade Britain with Malaysia. And Singapore’s high commissioner, Chi Hsia Foo, told a gathering in London last month: “You will be surprised to learn you are not our largest trading partner in the EU.” The Germans, Dutch and French rank higher.

這會不會是因為我們一直受到歐盟(EU)拖累，因為歐盟甚至不能與馬來西亞和新加坡達成自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定?事實并非如此。德國和荷蘭對馬來西亞的貿(mào)易，超過了英國與馬來西亞之間的貿(mào)易。新加坡高級專員符祺霞(Chi Hsia Foo)上月在英國的一個會議上表示：“你將驚訝地發(fā)現(xiàn)，你們并非我們在歐盟的最大貿(mào)易伙伴。”德國、荷蘭和法國對新加坡的貿(mào)易，都超過了英國與新加坡之間的貿(mào)易。

Britain and Singapore are already in informal trade talks, Foo told me. But British trade with the region would have to skyrocket to compensate for even the mildest dip in British-European trade. The UK’s trade with Malaysia in 2015 totalled 16.45bn ringgit (£2.75bn). British-Belgian trade was about £25bn.

符祺霞告訴我，英國和新加坡已在進行非正式貿(mào)易會談。但英國與東南亞的貿(mào)易將必須一飛沖天，才能抵消英國與歐盟貿(mào)易哪怕極小幅度的減少。2015年，英國與馬來西亞之間的貿(mào)易總額為164.5億林吉特(合27.5億英鎊)，而英國與比利時之間的貿(mào)易大約為250億英鎊。

I didn’t meet any Malaysian businesspeople who expected skyrocketing trade. One investor foresaw a failed Brexit putting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street. “Then Britain becomes uninvestable, like in the 1970s.” A very senior investor gave me his take on Brexit: “Odd!” He knows London intimately, and always considered it the obvious spot for a European headquarters. But as another businessman grumbled: “Now you will have to have two European offices, one in London and one in the EU. Knowing Malaysians, they’ll still have a London office because they like English football.”

在我遇到的馬來西亞商人中，沒有一個人預計英國與馬來西亞的貿(mào)易會一飛沖天。一位投資者預測退歐失敗，導致工黨領(lǐng)導人杰里米•科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn)入主唐寧街(Downing Street)。“然后英國變得不可投資，就像1970年代那樣。”一位非常資深的投資者向我介紹了他對英國退歐的看法：“匪夷所思!”他個人非常了解倫敦，以往總認為倫敦是顯而易見的企業(yè)歐洲總部所在地。但正如另一名商人所抱怨的那樣：“現(xiàn)在，你將不得不設(shè)立兩個歐洲辦事處，一個在倫敦，另一個在歐盟。以我對馬來西亞人的了解，他們?nèi)詫⒃O(shè)立倫敦辦事處，就因為他們喜歡英格蘭足球。”

Most Malaysian businesspeople talked about Brexit more as a personal than a business issue. The pound’s slide made flats and university fees cheaper. On the downside, an anti-immigration UK might not want their children — already, many Malaysians prefer to study in Australia.

大多數(shù)馬來西亞商人在談?wù)撚藲W時，更多是把它作為一個私人問題，而不是商業(yè)問題。英鎊下跌使得公寓和大學學費更便宜。而不利因素是，反移民情緒高漲的英國也許根本不歡迎他們的孩子——已經(jīng)有很多馬來西亞人寧愿到澳大利亞留學。

I heard several complaints that Brexit was distracting British decision-makers from other issues. One entrepreneur said he’d been told by an overburdened British bank: “You are our last priority.” British officials, desperate for trade deals, don’t have the head space to brainstorm with Southeast Asians about the geopolitical risks of a rising China. Nor are they busy pressuring Malaysia’s leader Najib about his jailing of the country’s de facto opposition leader, Anwar Ibrahim. Anwar’s daughter, Nurul Izzah, told me: “Right now the British concern seems to be better trade and economic ties between the countries.”

我聽到好幾個人抱怨稱，英國退歐奪走了英國決策者在其他問題上的注意力。一位企業(yè)家表示，英國一家負擔過重的銀行告訴他：“你是我行排在末尾的優(yōu)先事項。”一心想達成貿(mào)易協(xié)議的英國官員們，根本沒有心思與東南亞人討論中國崛起的地緣政治風險。他們也沒有因為馬來西亞領(lǐng)導人納吉布把該國事實上的反對派領(lǐng)導人安瓦爾•易卜拉欣(Anwar Ibrahim)投入監(jiān)獄而忙于向他施壓。安瓦爾的女兒努爾•伊扎(Nurul Izzah)告訴我：“眼下英國人關(guān)心的似乎只是兩國之間更好的經(jīng)貿(mào)紐帶。”

But Brexit isn’t keeping Malaysians awake. The fact is that they don’t need Britain any more. “There are too many other options now,” says Chandran Nair, the Malaysian who heads the Global Institute for Tomorrow think-tank. Empire is over. Towering over that Kuala Lumpur cricket pitch are Chinese-style skyscrapers. One evening, listening to the Islamic call to prayer fill the air, I wondered whether nativist Brexiters would really find Malaysia so congenial. Swiss investigators claim that billions were misappropriated from companies linked to a sovereign fund Najib created; he denies wrongdoing. Are Brexiters sure he's a better partner than Jean-Claude Juncker?

但是，英國退歐并未讓馬來西亞人夜不能寐。事實是，他們再也不需要英國了。“現(xiàn)在有太多的選擇，”智庫全球未來研究所(Global Institute for Tomorrow)的馬來西亞負責人程子俊(Chandran Nair)表示。大英帝國已終結(jié)。俯視吉隆坡板球場的是中式摩天大樓。某一天晚上，聽著滿耳的伊斯蘭教宣禮聲，我納悶支持退歐的英國本土主義者是否真會發(fā)現(xiàn)馬來西亞跟他們意氣相投。瑞士調(diào)查人員稱，有人從與納吉布創(chuàng)立的一家主權(quán)基金有關(guān)系的多家公司挪用了巨額資金;納吉布否認有任何不當行為。支持英國退歐者真的確定，他是比讓-克洛德•容克(Jean-Claude Juncker)更好的合作伙伴嗎?

As for Britain becoming a cold Singapore, no one I spoke to could see it. Foo noted that Singapore is a much smaller country than Britain, in a much more populous region. Nor did she consider her country low-tax and low-regulation. Singapore regulates tightly, and its corporation tax rate is 17 per cent, exactly the level the UK had already decided to drop to pre-Brexit. Other people pointed out that Singapore has by some measures the world’s highest-ranked schools system, the world’s second-busiest port, and a majority-immigrant population — not like Britain, then. London could be Singapore. Britain can’t.

至于說英國成為一個寒冷的新加坡，跟我交談的所有人都認為不可能。符祺霞指出，新加坡比英國小得多，同時地處一個人口多得多的地區(qū)。她也不認為自己的國家是低稅收和寬松監(jiān)管的。新加坡實行嚴格監(jiān)管，公司稅稅率為17%，跟英國在退歐公投前就決定降至的水平完全一樣。其他人還指出，新加坡?lián)碛幸阅承┲笜撕饬渴澜缗琶罡叩膶W校體系、世界上繁忙程度第二的港口，以及移民占多數(shù)的人口——說到底，還是不像英國。倫敦可能成為新加坡，英國則不能。

It’s easy to spin political fantasies about faraway countries. I flew home with the funny feeling that for many Brexiters trade is an afterthought, a retrospective justification for a Brexit driven by deeper instincts.

借用遙遠的國度炒作政治幻想是容易的。我飛回英國時，心里有種怪異的感覺：對于許多支持英國退歐者而言，貿(mào)易是一件事后想起來的事情;他們折騰的英國退歐是受到更深層次本能的驅(qū)使，而他們得手之后才回過頭來找理由。

Illustration by Harry Haysom

插圖：哈里•海索姆(Harry Haysom)