中國謹(jǐn)慎把握對朝制裁力度

The tougher UN sanctions against North Korea that China agreed to on Monday will cause real economic pain for its recalcitrant ally, but without risking regime collapse or significantly damaging the interests of large Chinese companies involved in cross-border trade.

中國周一支持了更強(qiáng)力的聯(lián)合國(UN)對朝制裁，本輪制裁將給其頑固的鄰國帶來經(jīng)濟(jì)上的切膚之痛，但不至于導(dǎo)致朝鮮政權(quán)崩潰或者顯著損害參與中朝跨境貿(mào)易的中國大公司利益。

Zhao Tong, a regional expert at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing, said the Chinese government’s objective was to block the most extreme measures advocated by US President Donald Trump while also communicating its anger to Kim Jong Un about his regime’s sixth nuclear test, conducted on September 3.

北京清華—卡內(nèi)基全球政策中心(Carnegie-Tsinghua Center)的地區(qū)專家趙通表示，中國政府的目標(biāo)是阻止美國總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)揚(yáng)言的最極端的舉措變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實(shí)，同時(shí)向金正恩(Kim Jong Un)傳達(dá)中國對其政權(quán)在9月3日進(jìn)行的第六次核試驗(yàn)的憤怒。

“China prevented a complete cut-off of oil and fuel supplies to North Korea, which could have had deadly economic consequences for the regime,” Mr Zhao said. “But the sanctions now in place will dramatically reduce North Korea’s foreign exchange earnings and have an irreversible impact on its economy.”

“中國阻止了完全切斷對朝鮮的石油和燃料供應(yīng)的局面，那可能對平壤政權(quán)造成致命的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果，”趙通說，“但現(xiàn)在的制裁方案將大幅減少朝鮮的外匯收入，對其經(jīng)濟(jì)造成不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的影響。”

An embargo on North Korean textile exports, coupled with earlier sanctions targeting coal, minerals and seafood, will affect more than 90 per cent of the country’s exports and deprive Mr Kim’s regime of $1.3bn in annual earnings.

禁止朝鮮的紡織品出口，加上之前針對朝鮮的煤炭、礦石和海鮮的制裁，將使朝鮮逾90%的出口受到影響，使金正恩政權(quán)每年失去13億美元的收入。

The sanctions limit the number of North Koreans allowed to work abroad at the current level of about 100,000 people, who repatriate an estimated $500m to their homeland annually. They will also reduce oil and fuel exports to North Korea by about a third, from 8.5m barrels annually to 6m.

制裁把朝鮮勞務(wù)輸出人員的人數(shù)限制在目前的10萬人左右，據(jù)估計(jì)這些勞工每年匯回朝鮮的收入達(dá)到5億美元。制裁還把向朝鮮供應(yīng)的石油和燃料減少約三分之一，從每年850萬桶降低到每年600萬桶。

“The sanctions effectively cap North Korea’s development potential and opens the door for further tightening now that oil and fuel are on the table,” said Michael Kovrig at the International Crisis Group.

“這些制裁有效限制了朝鮮的發(fā)展?jié)摿?，而且既然石油和燃料被擺到了臺面上，它也為進(jìn)一步收緊制裁開啟了大門，”國際危機(jī)組織(International Crisis Group)的邁克爾•科夫里格(Michael Kovrig)說。

While the squeeze on energy supplies will be keenly felt by Mr Kim, the amounts are inconsequential for state-owned Chinese energy groups that do business with North Korea. China National Petroleum Corp, which helps operate a “friendship pipeline” burrowed under the two countries’ Yalu river border, is a Fortune Global 500 company with more than $260bn in annual revenues.

在金正恩將會真切感受到對朝鮮能源供應(yīng)擠壓的同時(shí)，削減的出口量對與朝鮮有業(yè)務(wù)往來的中國國有能源集團(tuán)而言無足輕重。幫助運(yùn)營從兩國邊境線上的鴨綠江底穿過的中朝“友誼輸油管道”的中國石油天然氣集團(tuán)公司(CNPC)是一家《財(cái)富》全球500強(qiáng)企業(yè)，年收入超過2600億美元。

“The effect on any large [Chinese] oil company will negligible,” said Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Institute for Energy Studies at Xiamen University. “Exports to North Korean are a drop in the ocean when it comes to the Chinese oil industry. There may be small companies specifically focused on North Korea that would be affected, but they're not worth watching in terms of the overall industry.”

“任何大型(中國)石油公司將受到的影響都可以忽略不計(jì)，”廈門大學(xué)中國能源政策研究院(China Institute for Energy Studies)院長林伯強(qiáng)說，“對中國的石油行業(yè)而言，對朝鮮的出口只是九牛一毛。或許會有一些專注朝鮮市場的小公司受到影響，但就整個(gè)行業(yè)而言，它們不值得關(guān)注。”

Small Chinese traders in Dandong, Hunchun and other border towns already hit by earlier sanctions are bracing themselves for more pain. Last month, traders in Hunchun protested against the ban on North Korean seafood exports.

丹東、琿春和其他邊境城鎮(zhèn)的一些已經(jīng)受之前制裁沖擊的中國小商販正準(zhǔn)備承受更多的痛苦。上月，琿春的商販曾抗議針對朝鮮海鮮產(chǎn)品出口的禁令。

On Tuesday one Hunchun seafood importer, who asked not to be named, was ruing the new sanctions’ impact on a North Korean textile factory that she has invested in. “The seafood business is already hopeless,” the trader said. “They call them sanctions against North Korea but the reality is they’re making Chinese people suffer as well.”

周二，一位要求不具名的琿春海鮮進(jìn)口商對新制裁給她投資的一家朝鮮紡織廠帶來的影響感到懊悔。“海鮮業(yè)已經(jīng)沒有希望了，”這名商販說，“它們說那是對朝鮮的制裁，但現(xiàn)實(shí)是它們也讓中國人受罪。”

In a statement on Tuesday, Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe said the new sanctions demonstrated “the international community’s shared determination that the pressure against North Korea should be raised to an unprecedented new level”.

日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)在周二的聲明中表示，最新制裁決議“將對朝施壓上升到了一個(gè)前所未有的新級別，也將國際社會要求‘北朝鮮必須轉(zhuǎn)變政策’的態(tài)度表示得清楚明白”。

In Beijing, a foreign ministry spokesman reiterated China’s position that the sanctions should be followed with “diplomatic solutions and a resumption of the six-party talks”.

在北京，中國外交部的一名發(fā)言人重申了中國的立場，稱在執(zhí)行安理會決議的同時(shí)，也強(qiáng)調(diào)以外交方式解決問題，重啟六方會談。

“The Chinese government thinks that this is a problem between the US and North Korea,” said one Beijing-based foreign policy expert who advises Chinese officials.

“中國政府認(rèn)為這是美國和朝鮮之間的問題，”北京的一名為中國官員提供建議的外交政策專家說。

“China views its agreement with the new sanctions as a favour to the US and will now expect something in return,” Mr Kovrig said. “North Korea was never an ideal neighbor but China was willing to tolerate it provided it didn’t create too much of a fuss. Beijing’s cost-benefit analysis has clearly changed.”

“中國認(rèn)為支持新一輪制裁是幫了美國一個(gè)忙，現(xiàn)在中國期待美國給出一些回報(bào)，”國際危機(jī)組織的科夫里格說，“朝鮮從來都不是一個(gè)理想的鄰居，但中國愿意在朝鮮不鬧出太大亂子的情況下容忍它。北京方面的成本效益分析顯然發(fā)生了變化。”