Lex專欄：中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)為何瘋狂拿地？

China’s property developers have a habit of countering bad news with good. Bears expect a slowdown, given high net debt and government plans to rein in excessive borrowing. But core profits at big developers grew about 50 per cent on average in the most recent earnings reporting season. The sector cannot defy the bears for ever.

中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商常常用好消息來(lái)反駁壞消息。鑒于凈債務(wù)高企和政府計(jì)劃遏制過(guò)度舉債，空頭人士預(yù)計(jì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)放緩。但在最近的財(cái)報(bào)季，大型房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)的核心利潤(rùn)平均增長(zhǎng)50%左右。然而房地產(chǎn)業(yè)不可能永遠(yuǎn)反駁空頭人士。

The business has already become tougher in two respects. First, the government has restricted land supply in an effort to forestall price drops, so it is harder for developers to increase land banks. Recent mergers in the sector have achieved this at lower cost than auctions.

房地產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)在兩個(gè)方面變得更為艱難。首先，中國(guó)政府為了防止價(jià)格下跌而限制土地供應(yīng)，因此房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商更難增加土地儲(chǔ)備。最近房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的合并讓開發(fā)商以比拍賣更低的成本獲得了土地。

Second, regulators are expected to limit residential property sales volumes by restricting consumers’ access to credit. As a result, Moody’s thinks sales growth will slow in the second half this year, after an 18 per cent jump in the first half.

其次，預(yù)計(jì)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)將通過(guò)限制消費(fèi)者獲得信貸來(lái)限制住宅銷售。因此穆迪(Moody's)認(rèn)為銷售在今年上半年飆升18%之后，將在下半年放緩。

There has been no margin squeeze so far. Sales price growth has outpaced the rate of increase in land costs, with the result that finished property still costs around twice what the land did. That is a ratio as high as it has been since 2013. But it is now likely to decline.

迄今利潤(rùn)還沒(méi)有受到擠壓。銷售價(jià)格增長(zhǎng)超過(guò)了土地成本增長(zhǎng)，結(jié)果導(dǎo)致成品房?jī)r(jià)格仍然大約是土地價(jià)格的兩倍。自2013年以來(lái)一直都是這么高的比率。但現(xiàn)在該比率可能會(huì)下降。

If sales growth does slow, the largest groups will probably gain more market share. The share of the top 10 groups has already quadrupled in the past decade to a fifth. Buying land is a means of gaining scale in a consolidating industry.

如果銷售增長(zhǎng)確實(shí)放緩，最大的房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)將可能獲得更大的市場(chǎng)份額。前十大房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的市場(chǎng)份額已經(jīng)在過(guò)去十年增長(zhǎng)3倍，達(dá)到20%。在一個(gè)日益整合的行業(yè)里，買地是擴(kuò)大規(guī)模的方式。

But it has come at a cost. In a heavily leveraged industry, Evergrande and Sunac stand out with net debt of more than twice shareholder’s equity, even after counting perpetual securities. The sector average is 70 per cent. Both groups have indicated that reducing debt is a priority. In the meantime, they will be helped by lower debt costs — these fell to a record low of 5.4 per cent in the first half. Agreed sales will help with cash flow once they are completed.

但這是有代價(jià)的。在一個(gè)高度杠桿化的行業(yè)里，恒大(Evergrande)和融創(chuàng)(Sunac)逾200%的凈負(fù)債權(quán)益比仍非常顯眼，而且這還是計(jì)入永續(xù)債之后的結(jié)果。該行業(yè)的平均比率是70%。兩家集團(tuán)均表示，削減債務(wù)是重中之重。與此同時(shí)，債務(wù)成本下降也將對(duì)它們有利——今年上半年其債務(wù)成本下降至5.4%的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄低點(diǎn)。約定的銷售一旦完成，還會(huì)為它們帶來(lái)現(xiàn)金流。

Growth in the value of newly acquired land has outpaced the growth in acreage. If that is because of savvier deals, fine. If it is because groups have loaded up on debt to buy speculative land in less mainstream locations, shareholders should be worried.

新獲得的土地的價(jià)值增長(zhǎng)超過(guò)了土地面積的增長(zhǎng)。如果這是得益于精明的交易，那沒(méi)什么問(wèn)題。如果這是由于房地產(chǎn)集團(tuán)大量舉債在不那么主流的地段購(gòu)買投機(jī)性土地，股東們應(yīng)該感到擔(dān)心。