真子公主訂婚導(dǎo)致日本皇室人丁漸稀

The engagement of imperial princess Mako to her floppy-haired university sweetheart last week added to the gaiety of the Japanese nation but highlighted a tricky issue: the chrysanthemum throne is running out of royals.

上周，真子公主(Princess Mako)與她留著蓬松頭發(fā)的大學同學訂婚的消息，給整個日本增添了歡樂的氣氛，但同時也突顯出一個棘手的問題：菊花王朝皇室的人丁日漸稀少。

Princesses are required by law to leave the imperial family when they marry a commoner, as the popular 25-year-old Mako will do when she weds aspiring lawyer Kei Komuro, reducing the membership of the imperial family from nineteen to eighteen.

按照日本法律的要求，公主嫁給平民時要離開皇室。當25歲的、備受愛戴的真子公主嫁給有抱負的律師小室圭(Kei Komuro)時，日本皇室成員人數(shù)將從19降至18。

Combined with cabinet approval on Friday for a bill allowing 83-year-old emperor Akihito to abdicate, the engagement has ignited a public debate — not about female succession or rights but rather about how to secure an adequate supply of royalty.

上周五，日本內(nèi)閣批準了允許83歲的明仁天皇(Emperor Akihito)退位的法案。真子公主訂婚的消息與這條消息結(jié)合在一起，引發(fā)了日本公眾的討論，討論的主題不是關(guān)于女性繼承或女性權(quán)利，而是關(guān)于如何確保皇室人丁興旺。

The response underlines Japan’s uneven record on gender equality, with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe touting so-called “womenomics” while remaining firmly against allowing a woman to become empress, as well as the multifarious issues caused by Japan’s low birth rate and ageing population.

這種反應(yīng)突顯出日本在性別平等方面的失衡記錄——日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)一邊鼓吹所謂的“女性經(jīng)濟學”，一邊堅決反對讓女性成為天皇——以及日本低出生率和人口老齡化引發(fā)的各種問題。

“Her engagement is certainly cause for congratulation. The issue is who will take on the big public role she has been fulfilling since she came back from her studies in England,” said Yasushi Kuno, a veteran journalist who has covered the imperial family for decades.

數(shù)十年來擔任日本皇室報道工作的資深記者久野靖(Yasushi Kuno)表示：“她訂婚這件事肯定是要恭喜的。問題是，誰將承擔她自英國留學歸來后一直擔當?shù)闹匾步巧?

“As the numbers fall, the burden on the remaining family members increases. If the trend continues then ultimately only Prince Hisahito will be left and he cannot do all the work of the imperial family by himself.”

“隨著皇室成員人數(shù)下降，余下的成員的負擔增加了。如果這種趨勢持續(xù)下去，那么最終將只剩下悠仁親王(Prince Hisahito)，而他一個人是不可能承擔皇室全部工作的。”

If the current emperor abdicates as expected at the end of 2018 then his son, Crown Prince Naruhito, will succeed him. Naruhito’s only child is a daughter, Princess Aiko, now aged fifteen. Next in the line is therefore Naruhito’s younger brother, Prince Akishino, and then his only son, the 10-year old Hisahito.

如果現(xiàn)任天皇按預(yù)期的那樣在2018年底退位，那么他的兒子德仁皇太子(Crown Prince Naruhito)將繼位。德仁只生了一個孩子，是個女兒，即現(xiàn)年15歲的愛子公主(Princess Aiko)。第二順位皇位繼承人是德仁的弟弟文仁親王(Prince Akishino)，第三順位繼承人是文仁親王唯一的兒子、現(xiàn)年10歲的悠仁親王。

Some analysts had hoped Emperor Akihito’s abdication would galvanise a movement to let women inherit the throne. But an expert panel appointed by Mr Abe warned only that the shrinking royal family needed to be addressed “without any further delay”, making no reference to the issue of female succession.

一些分析人士曾希望，明仁天皇的退位可以激勵一場讓女性繼承皇位的運動。但安倍指定的一個專家小組只警告了皇室的日益萎縮需要馬上解決、“不能再拖延”，而沒有提及女性繼承問題。

“For those who support the male line, they want to fight it out until the very end and postpone the issue as long as possible,” says Hideya Kawanishi, an associate professor at Kobe College. “But it’s a big dilemma for the current administration since the situation doesn’t allow them to do so.”

神戶女學院大學(Kobe College)副教授河西秀哉(Hideya Kawanishi)說：“對于那些支持由男性繼承的人來說，他們希望斗爭到底、盡量拖延這一問題。但它是現(xiàn)任政府面臨的一大難題，因為當前的情況不允許他們這樣做。”

A large majority of the Japanese public already backs the idea of female succession but Sota Kimura, a professor at Tokyo Metropolitan University, says support is passive and there is no real pressure on Mr Abe to act. That is partly down to the low profile of Princess Aiko, who has mostly stayed out of public view, amid concerns about her own health and that of her mother Crown Princess Masako, who has suffered from chronic depression.

大多數(shù)日本民眾已對女性繼承皇位的主意持支持態(tài)度，但首都大學東京(Tokyo Metropolitan University)教授木村草太(Sota Kimura)說，這一支持是被動的，沒有什么切實的壓力讓安倍去采取行動。這在一定程度上歸因于愛子公主的低調(diào)，她大多數(shù)時間不出現(xiàn)在公眾視野里，她和她母親——長期患抑郁癥的皇太子妃雅子(Crown Princess Masako)——的健康問題也引起外界的擔憂。

“It may be that only the worst-case situation would serve as a wake-up call,” Mr Kimura said, referring to circumstances under which Prince Hisahito would not be able to take the throne. “The current emperor and other members of the imperial family are increasingly feeling cornered because the debate has not moved forward.”

木村說：“也許只有發(fā)生最壞的情況才能敲響警鐘。”他這里指的是導(dǎo)致悠仁親王無法繼承皇位的情況。“現(xiàn)任天皇和其他皇室成員越來越感到走入了絕境，因為這件事的討論沒有取得進展。”

The most obvious answer to the royalty shortage is letting princesses such as Mako stay in the imperial family after marriage. But that is too much for hardline conservatives.

解決皇室人丁稀少問題的最明顯答案，就是允許真子等公主婚后留在皇室內(nèi)。但這是強硬的保守派無法接受的。

“There is likely to be much resistance to opening a path for princesses of the blood or even male descendants of the matrilineal line to possibly assume the throne,” said the nationalist Sankei newspaper in an editorial.

民族主義報紙《產(chǎn)經(jīng)新聞》(Sankei)在一篇社評中表示：“想為皇室公主乃至公主的男性后代開辟一條有可能繼承皇位的道路，多半會遭遇很大阻力。”

The conservatives’ solution is to draft some new princes from older branches of the imperial family and bring them into the royal household. But Mr Kuno says such princes might not want to sign up for a life of ceremonial hand-waving, and they have not been brought up steeped in imperial tradition.

保守派提出的解決方法是從皇室家族的較古老分支中挑選出一些新的親王，讓他們進入皇室。但久野表示，這樣的親王可能不想加入皇室一輩子在儀式中揮手，而且他們在長大過程中也未接受過長時間的皇室傳統(tǒng)教育。

“Would the public be satisfied?” he says. “I think it is not a very realistic suggestion.”

“民眾會滿意嗎?”他說，“我認為這個建議不太實際。”