中國(guó)政府樓市調(diào)控政策遏制房?jī)r(jià)上漲
在中國(guó)主要城市房?jī)r(jià)經(jīng)歷一輪快速上漲之后，國(guó)內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)投資者正面臨壓力。
Top policymakers announced in December that “houses are for living in, not for speculating with”. This was news to many citizens, for whom a house has become not only a place to live, but an investment, a pension plan, a status symbol and often a prerequisite for marriage.
中國(guó)的最高決策層在去年12月明確提出，“房子是用來住的，不是用來炒的”。這對(duì)許多中國(guó)人來說是新聞，對(duì)他們而言，房子已經(jīng)不僅是容身之所，還是投資，是養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)，是地位象征，還常常是結(jié)婚的先決條件。
The housing market is just one of many speculative investment routes for Chinese households seeking quick returns on investment. Over the past few years, amateur investors have piled in and out of a variety of the country’s nascent financial markets, buying up everything from company stocks to garlic futures.
住房市場(chǎng)只是中國(guó)家庭尋求快速投資回報(bào)的諸多投機(jī)性投資渠道之一。過去幾年，業(yè)余投資者涌進(jìn)和涌出了國(guó)內(nèi)各種新興金融市場(chǎng)，大舉購(gòu)入從股票到大蒜期貨的一切金融產(chǎn)品。
After the stock market crashed in 2015, however, many retail investors turned back to housing. Unlike less tangible financial instruments, housing is a known asset, which has cultural significance as well as offering a predicable long-term return. Many see it as the obvious target to save towards.
但在2015年中國(guó)A股市場(chǎng)崩潰后，許多散戶投資者回歸住宅市場(chǎng)。與虛擬的金融工具不同，住房是人們熟悉的一種資產(chǎn)，除了能提供可預(yù)見的長(zhǎng)期回報(bào)，還受到社會(huì)文化的看重。很多人將房子視作顯而易見的存錢目標(biāo)。
“There’s a strong feeling of needing a lot of savings for a potential period of real need,” explains one local newspaper editor who wishes to remain anonymous. “For example, what happens if my son says: ‘I need to buy a house, or my girlfriend’s not going to agree to marry me’? What would you do as a father then? You have to find a downpayment.”
一位要求匿名的地方報(bào)紙編輯表示：“人們有種強(qiáng)烈的感覺——需要存很多錢，以備有一天真的需要。比如，如果我兒子說，‘我要買房子，不然我女朋友不同意嫁給我’。作為一個(gè)父親，你這時(shí)候該怎么辦?你必須得拿得出首付。”
The commonly held view of housing as an essential investment has helped house prices in big cities such as Beijing and Shanghai to rise by 20-30 per cent last year. But this period of breakneck rises has been brought to an abrupt halt by the government’s decision to stamp out a possible property bubble.
人們普遍將住房視作一項(xiàng)基本投資，在這一共識(shí)助推下，北京、上海等大城市的房?jī)r(jià)去年上漲了20%至30%。但政府決定消除可能的房地產(chǎn)泡沫，這一決定讓這一飛速上漲時(shí)期戛然而止。
The clampdown started with concerted policies from more than 20 city governments to decrease demand for house purchasing. They have raised the minimum deposit required for taking out a mortgage and made it more difficult to buy extra homes. In addition, financial regulators have rolled out nationwide measures to restrict developers’ access to financing through the state banks and via the stock and bond markets.
中國(guó)20多個(gè)城市政府同時(shí)出臺(tái)旨在減少購(gòu)房需求的政策，宣告打壓房?jī)r(jià)行動(dòng)的開始。這些城市提高了首付成數(shù)要求，并加大購(gòu)買第二套(及以上)住房的難度。此外，金融監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)還出臺(tái)全國(guó)性措施，限制開發(fā)商通過國(guó)有銀行、股市和債券市場(chǎng)獲得融資。
The effect has been a sudden halt in house price growth in the cities designated as “hotspots” by regulators. The latest official data show that in January, prices for newly built housing sold on the commercial market, excluding government-subsidised housing, stayed largely flat from the previous month. Prices in the port cities of Shenzhen and Shanghai even came down by a fraction of a percentage point.
在被監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)標(biāo)為“熱點(diǎn)”的城市，以上措施令房?jī)r(jià)增長(zhǎng)突然停止。據(jù)最新官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，1月份新建商品住宅價(jià)格(不含保障性住房)環(huán)比基本持平。深圳、上海等港口城市的房?jī)r(jià)環(huán)比甚至略微下降，降幅為零點(diǎn)幾個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
The collapse in price growth is in stark contrast to month-on-month increases — as high as 7 per cent — registered in Shenzhen in 2015. In spring last year, prices were rising at an annualised rate of more than 60 per cent. By January of this year, prices had increased by just 18 per cent over the previous 12 months. as investor interest waned.
價(jià)格增長(zhǎng)的大幅萎縮與2015年深圳房?jī)r(jià)環(huán)比漲幅(最高達(dá)7%)形成明顯對(duì)比。去年春季，房?jī)r(jià)還在以逾60%的同比增速上漲。到今年1月份，隨著投資者興趣降低，房?jī)r(jià)在過去12個(gè)月僅上漲了18%。
Transaction volumes have fallen sharply as price growth as slackened. The number of buildings traded in 10 major cities fell by 30 per cent year-on-year in November, December and January, according to data compiled from the Wind Information service.
隨著房?jī)r(jià)上漲勢(shì)頭減緩，交易量大幅下降。據(jù)萬得資訊(Wind Information)編制的數(shù)據(jù)，去年11月、12月和今年1月，10個(gè)主要城市房屋交易量同比下降30%。
Despite the abrupt turnround in China’s house market boom, analysts say most investors will not be worried. “The Chinese property market is dominated by households, rather than institutional investors,” says Nicole Wong, head of China and Hong Kong property research at CLSA, a consultancy.
盡管中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)繁榮陡轉(zhuǎn)急下，分析師們表示大多數(shù)投資者不會(huì)擔(dān)心。里昂證券(CLSA)中國(guó)及香港房地產(chǎn)研究負(fù)責(zé)人王艷(Nicole Wong)表示：“中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)是由家庭、而不是機(jī)構(gòu)投資者主導(dǎo)的。”
Jonas Short, head of China research at NSBO, an investment bank, agrees that such households are often buying for the longer term and are optimistic about future price rises beyond the end of this regulatory tightening. “Speculators we’ve spoken to see it as a minor blip. A lot of developers think this is a regulatory down cycle and will back up again,” says Mr Short. “The large majority of homebuyers in China buy and hold for more than two years, for example to pass on homes to children,” he adds.
投資銀行藍(lán)橡資本(NSBO)中國(guó)問題研究主任喬納斯•肖特(Jonas Short)也認(rèn)為，這些家庭購(gòu)房通常是為了長(zhǎng)期持有，他們對(duì)監(jiān)管收緊期結(jié)束后價(jià)格繼續(xù)上漲表示樂觀。肖特說：“與我們交流過的投機(jī)者們視此為一段小插曲。很多開發(fā)商認(rèn)為，這是監(jiān)管部門態(tài)度的降溫期，將來監(jiān)管部門的態(tài)度還會(huì)再次升溫。出于要將房子傳給孩子等原因，中國(guó)絕大多數(shù)購(gòu)房者買房后持有時(shí)間都超過兩年。”
There is also little fear that house price falls will lead to knock-on effects for the financial system prompted by US-style foreclosures. The level of mortgage borrowing in the country is low compared to global peers: the average household’s mortgage loans make up only 10 per cent of the value of their housing, compared to almost 40 per cent for the US, according to China International Capital Corporation, an investment bank.
也沒有多少人擔(dān)心，房?jī)r(jià)下跌將導(dǎo)致出現(xiàn)美國(guó)當(dāng)年那種止贖潮，并由此引發(fā)金融系統(tǒng)的連鎖反應(yīng)。中國(guó)購(gòu)房者的按揭成數(shù)與全球水平相比較低：據(jù)投資銀行中金公司(CICC)的數(shù)據(jù)，平均而言，家庭的按揭貸款額只占其房屋估值的10%，而美國(guó)的這一比例將近40%。
Just as stalling prices have been brought about by policy tightening, some argue the government can easily stoke demand. “You won’t see people marching on the street and complaining unless there’s a huge correction — and the government wouldn’t let that happen,” says Mr Short.
有人說，就像政策收緊實(shí)現(xiàn)了房?jī)r(jià)停滯，政府也能輕易地刺激需求。肖特表示：“你不會(huì)看到人們上街游行和抱怨，除非房?jī)r(jià)出現(xiàn)大幅回調(diào)——而政府是不會(huì)讓這種事發(fā)生的。”
Policies to curb the house price boom have helped push investors into the resurging Hong Kong market. “One of the reasons prices started coming up again last year was an inflow of investment from China,” explains Ms Wong at CLSA. “With the US beginning to raise interest rates, mainlanders think there could be a prolonged loss of purchasing power in renminbi, so they start to allocate their assets overseas — and Hong Kong is a key receiving end.”
遏制此輪房?jī)r(jià)上漲的政策幫助推動(dòng)了投資者進(jìn)入復(fù)蘇的香港市場(chǎng)。王艷表示：“去年價(jià)格開始回升的原因之一是中國(guó)投資流入。隨著美國(guó)開始加息，內(nèi)地人覺得人民幣購(gòu)買力可能出現(xiàn)長(zhǎng)期下降，因此他們開始將資產(chǎn)配置到海外，而香港是一個(gè)重要的接收地。”
Nick Holt, Asia-Pacific head of research at consultancy Knight Frank, says investors including mainland developers and rich individuals are buying in Hong Kong. “There’s lots of money looking to leave. But the capital controls have made it harder,” he says.
咨詢公司萊坊(Knight Frank)亞太地區(qū)研究負(fù)責(zé)人尼古拉斯•霍爾特(Nicholas Holt)表示，包括內(nèi)地開發(fā)商和富人在內(nèi)的投資者正在香港買房。“有大量資金想要離開，但資本管制加大了這樣做的難度。”
