中國(guó)汽車銷量強(qiáng)勁推高橡膠價(jià)格

Expectations of robust demand from China boosted rubber to a three-year high after buoyant car sales data for November lifted expectations of higher tyre demand.

中國(guó)強(qiáng)勁需求預(yù)期推動(dòng)橡膠價(jià)格漲至三年高點(diǎn)，11月火爆的汽車銷售數(shù)據(jù)推高了輪胎需求預(yù)期。

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported vehicle sales of 2.9m in November, up 16.6 per cent year on year. Tax breaks introduced this year on small passenger cars have spurred demand and while the November figure was down from a September peak of 26.1 per cent, it marked the sixth straight double-digit rise in growth.

據(jù)中國(guó)汽車工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)(China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)報(bào)告，11月汽車銷量達(dá)290萬輛，同比增長(zhǎng)16.6%。今年出臺(tái)的小排量汽車購(gòu)置稅減免優(yōu)惠刺激了需求，盡管11月銷售增幅低于9月26.1%的峰值，但它標(biāo)志著連續(xù)第六個(gè)月實(shí)現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)。

Rubber, which is also used in condoms and gloves, closed up almost 8 per cent to $205.60 a kilogramme in Singapore, its highest level since January 2014.

橡膠價(jià)格在新加坡收漲近8%，至每公斤205.60美元，創(chuàng)2014年1月以來最高水平。橡膠還用于安全套和手套。

“If demand remains this dynamic, more rubber will be needed for manufacturing tyres,” said Commerzbank.

德國(guó)商業(yè)銀行(Commerzbank)表示：“如果需求仍然保持這種活力，將需要更多橡膠來制造輪胎。”

Chinese consumers have rushed to purchase vehicles before the tax breaks expire at the end of the year. The country’s scramble for cars has also helped palladium, which is used in catalytic converters in petrol engines, with the precious metal up more than a third this year at $727.35 a troy ounce.

中國(guó)消費(fèi)者在稅收減免于年底終止前趕著購(gòu)買汽車。這還推高了鈀的價(jià)格，這種貴金屬用于汽油發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)中的催化轉(zhuǎn)化器，其價(jià)格今年漲幅逾三分之一，至每金衡盎司727.35美元。

Nevertheless, some car executives and analysts are concerned that rise in sales could slow next year if the government fails to extend the tax break, introduced in late 2015 to support flagging consumer demand.

然而一些汽車業(yè)高管和分析師擔(dān)心，如果中國(guó)政府未能延長(zhǎng)減稅政策，明年的銷售增長(zhǎng)可能會(huì)減緩。該政策于2015年末出臺(tái)，以支持低落的消費(fèi)需求。

Analysts said rubber prices have also been supported by heavy rainfall in Thailand, the commodity’s largest producer, which led to disrupted harvesting known as “tapping”, which also added to the price increases.

分析師們表示，最大產(chǎn)膠國(guó)泰國(guó)的強(qiáng)降雨也推高了橡膠價(jià)格，因?yàn)閺?qiáng)降雨干擾了割膠作業(yè)，加劇價(jià)格上漲。

The market has been on a downward trajectory since the start of 2011 when prices almost hit $600 per kg. This year, it has surged more than 80 per cent, and is likely to leading to increased costs for leading tyremakers including Bridgestone, Goodyear and Michelin.

自2011年初橡膠價(jià)格逼近600美元/公斤以來，橡膠市場(chǎng)一直處于下滑態(tài)勢(shì)。今年，橡膠價(jià)格已上漲逾80%，這很可能導(dǎo)致普利司通(Bridgestone)、固特異(Goodyear)、米其林(Michelin)等領(lǐng)先輪胎制造商成本增加。

The China car sales data comes as industry consultants are expecting a rubber supply shortfall between 2016-2018 due to falling yields.

在中國(guó)汽車銷量數(shù)據(jù)出爐之際，行業(yè)顧問預(yù)計(jì)，由于收成下滑，2016年至2018年將出現(xiàn)橡膠供應(yīng)短缺。

The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries last week said it expected the production of its members — who account for about 90 per cent of worldwide supply — to increase only 0.1 per cent in 2016. While demand is forecast to rise 4.1 per cent from the previous year.

天然橡膠生產(chǎn)國(guó)協(xié)會(huì)(ANRPC)上周表示，預(yù)計(jì)2016年協(xié)會(huì)成員國(guó)——占全球供應(yīng)量的約90%——的橡膠產(chǎn)量?jī)H增長(zhǎng)0.1%，而預(yù)計(jì)需求與上年相比將增長(zhǎng)4.1%。

The ANRPC said: “The uptrend could be supported by favourable supply-demand fundamentals, weak Japanese yen, rebound in crude oil price and improved economic outlook in US.”

該協(xié)會(huì)稱：“推動(dòng)價(jià)格上漲的因素包括有利的供需基本面因素、日元疲軟、原油價(jià)格反彈以及美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景改善。”