A股何時“入指”？

Days before the world’s largest index provider, MSCI, blocked China from joining its emerging market index for the third year in a row, a senior official at the country’s regulatory commission asserted that inclusion in the important benchmark was a “historical certainty”.

在世界最大指數(shù)提供商MSCI明晟連續(xù)第三年拒絕將中國納入其新興市場指數(shù)之前數(shù)天，中國證監(jiān)會的一名高級官員斷言，中國股市被納入這個重要的基準指數(shù)是一個“歷史必然”。

“It will happen eventually,” Qi Bin told a conference in Shanghai’s financial district. “You don’t want to wait too long.”

“早晚會發(fā)生，”祁斌在上海陸家嘴金融區(qū)舉行的一個論壇上說：“(當你參與一個市場時)最好不要等太久。”

The rejection by MSCI a few days later was an embarrassing blow to Beijing, which has attempted to win a place on the index by reforming its capital markets.

數(shù)天后，MSCI的拒絕給了北京一次尷尬的打擊，北京一直試圖通過改革資本市場在MSCI的指數(shù)中贏得一席之地。

Much is at stake: inclusion would boost China’s ability to attract foreign investment as it struggles with slowing growth. $1.5tn of assets track MSCI’s emerging markets index and membership of it boosts a country’s legitimacy to investors around the world. Repeated denial by some of the largest index providers — China has also been locked out of the main emerging markets indices by S&P and FTSE Russell — has restricted the amount of foreign investment flowing into the country of 1.4bn people.

是否被納入事關(guān)重大：在中國努力應對增長放緩之際，被納入MSCI指數(shù)將提升中國吸引外國投資的能力。全球有1.5萬億美元的資產(chǎn)追蹤MSCI明晟新興市場指數(shù)(MSCI Emerging Markets index)，被納入該指數(shù)將使一個國家在全球投資者眼中地位上升。中國一再被一些最大的指數(shù)提供商拒之門外——中國也未能被納入標準普爾(S&P)和富時羅素(FTSE Russell)的主要新興市場指數(shù)——限制了流入這個擁有14億人口的國家的境外投資。

The question now for Mr Qi and reformers in Beijing is when — if ever — will the world’s second-largest economy win a place on such benchmarks, helping propel it to its next stage of liberalisation.

對祁斌和北京方面的其他改革者而言，現(xiàn)在的問題是世界第二大經(jīng)濟體何時(如果最終被納入的話)能夠在這類基準指數(shù)中贏得一席之地，助推其進入開放的下一個階段。

“It is a certainty that China will be added,” says Danny Dolan, managing director at China Post Global, the international asset management arm of the domestic investment house China Post Fund.

“中國被納入是必然的，”中國投資機構(gòu)中郵基金(China Post Fund)旗下的國際資產(chǎn)管理部門中郵國際(China Post Global)的董事總經(jīng)理丹尼•多蘭(Danny Dolan)說。

The group is betting that international investment into China will rise after inclusion. It is planning to launch two smart beta exchange traded funds early next year. “[Inclusion] is likely to happen in 2017,” says Mr Dolan. “There is a huge incentive for MSCI to add China to their indices. From a performance point of view these indices are suffering due to the exclusion of China. It’s a huge growth engine.”

該集團正在押注，在被納入基準指數(shù)之后，流入中國的國際投資將會增加。該集團計劃在明年初推出兩個采用Smart Beta策略的交易所交易基金(ETF)。“(納入)很可能會在2017年發(fā)生，”多蘭說：“MSCI有巨大的動機將中國納入其指數(shù)。從表現(xiàn)視角看，這些指數(shù)正因為把中國擋在門外而吃虧。中國是一個巨大的增長引擎。”

China accounts for 13 per cent of the world’s GDP and its local A-shares equity market represents a tenth of global market capitalisation, according to Credit Suisse. The Swiss financial services company has launched an onshore brokerage business in China in anticipation of the new capital flows.

根據(jù)瑞信(Credit Suisse)的數(shù)據(jù)，中國占世界國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的13%，其A股市場占全球總市值的十分之一。因為預測中國將迎來新的資本流動，這家瑞士金融服務公司已經(jīng)在中國推出國內(nèi)證券經(jīng)紀業(yè)務。

However, three features of the Chinese market worry index providers: restrictions on the amount of capital that foreign investors can take out of the country; requirements that any new products linked to A-shares are approved by Beijing; and the potential for share suspensions similar to those that roiled the country’s stock market last summer. Restrictions on outflows are the most problematic of the three, according to index providers. “If a fund manager has to meet redemptions and there’s hard limits on the amount of currency that can be repatriated then that poses a problem,” says Michael Orzano, director of global equity indices at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

然而，中國市場的三個特點讓指數(shù)提供商感到憂慮：對外國投資者匯出資金的限制;任何與A股掛鉤的新金融產(chǎn)品都需要得到中國批準這個要求;以及類似去年夏天攪亂中國股市的股票停牌再度發(fā)生的可能。據(jù)指數(shù)提供商表示，對匯出資金的限制是最大的問題。“如果一家基金管理公司不得不應對贖回請求，而能夠匯回本國的資金額度又有硬性限制的話，這就會造成問題，”標普道瓊斯指數(shù)公司(S&P Dow Jones Indices)的全球股指總監(jiān)邁克爾•奧爾扎諾(Michael Orzano)說。

Mark Makepeace, chief executive of the FTSE Russell, adds that quotas for inflows awarded under programmes that open Chinese markets up to foreign investors favour larger asset managers. “Only if you’re a big fund can you get a quota and then you can buy quite easily but you still can’t sell as easily,” he says.

富時羅素首席執(zhí)行官麥思平(Mark Makepeace)補充道，向外國投資者開放中國市場的合格境外機構(gòu)投資者(QFII)制度，在授予投資額度方面青睞較大的資產(chǎn)管理公司。“只有在你是一家大型基金的情況下，你才能獲得額度，而且，你可以相當容易地買入，但你不能同樣容易地賣出，”他說。

“We’re looking for those restrictions to be removed. We can estimate [when that will happen] but we don’t know until those restrictions are removed. That’s the major hurdle.”

“我們期盼這些限制會被解除。我們可以估計(解除限制的時間)，但在限制解除之前，我們無從得知。這就是主要的障礙。”

Active investors are more optimistic. They argue that Shenzhen Connect, a programme launched this month to link the country’s large technology-focused Shenzhen Stock Exchange with Hong Kong, will drive the case for inclusion by encouraging more foreign investment.

活躍型投資者更加樂觀。他們主張，本月啟動的深港通(Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect)將鼓勵更多境外投資，增強中國股市被納入基準指數(shù)的理由。深港通項目將中國規(guī)模龐大、以科技股為主的深交所(Shenzhen Stock Exchange)與香港對接。

“MSCI is sending mixed signals [by not including China in its index], however it is worth noting the improvements made since [MSCI’s] last review,” says Karine Hirn, partner at East Capital, an emerging market-focused asset manager.

“(拒絕把中國納入其指數(shù))意味著MSCI正在發(fā)出矛盾的信號，然而值得指出的是，在(MSCI的)上一次審核后，有關(guān)方面做出了一些改善，”專注于新興市場的資產(chǎn)管理公司East Capital的合伙人習卡琳(Karine Hirn)說。

Ms Hirn believes that Shenzhen Connect will build on other reforms, including an increase in overall foreign investment quotas, the relaxing of quota rules for both Shenzhen Connect and Shanghai Connect — which also links with Hong Kong — and greater restrictions on share suspensions. This will make the situation in China more favourable, she argues. “This is going in the right direction, the question is not whether it will be included, it is only when it will be included.”

習卡琳相信，深港通將深化其他改革，包括提高境外總投資額度，對深港通和滬港通放松額度規(guī)則，對停牌采取更嚴的限制。她主張，這將改善中國的投資環(huán)境。“事情正朝著正確的方向發(fā)展，問題不是中國是否會被納入，而是何時會被納入。”

Josh Crabb, head of Asian equities at Old Mutual Global Investors, says that the Shenzhen stock market tie-up will introduce foreign investors to the high returns available in China’s market. “The Connect means that people can buy and sell more easily and as they slowly open up they’ll see relative performance [improve],” he says. Old Mutual Global

Investors的亞洲股票業(yè)務主管喬希•克拉布(Josh Crabb)表示，深港通將讓外國投資者了解中國市場提供的高回報。“這一連通機制意味著人們能夠更容易地買入和賣出，隨著它們慢慢開放，它們會看到相對業(yè)績(改善)，”他說。

Mr Crabb points to the gradual inclusion of South Korea and Taiwan in global equity benchmarks as an example of how initial inflows generate investor confidence.

克拉布舉出韓國和臺灣逐漸被納入全球股票基準的例子，來說明最初的資本流入如何讓投資者萌生信心。

Index providers, however, point out that Shenzhen Connect still does not cover the entire A-shares market. “The Shenzhen-Hong Kong link will improve things but there is a limited amount of stocks that it includes,” Mr Makepeace says.

然而，指數(shù)提供商指出，深港通依然沒有覆蓋全部A股市場。“深港通改善了局面，但其包含的股票數(shù)量依然有限，”富時羅素的麥思平說。

MSCI declined to comment.

MSCI拒絕置評。