研究：英國將躲過衰退，但退歐仍損害經(jīng)濟(jì)

Two leading City institutions have cancelled predictions of an EU referendum recession and revised their economic forecasts higher in response to better than expected surveys.

面對好于預(yù)期的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)，倫敦金融城兩家頂級機構(gòu)撤銷了退歐公投會導(dǎo)致英國經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的預(yù)測，并調(diào)高了英國增長前景。

Economists from Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley lifted growth predictions for 2016 and 2017, removing the expectation of a recession, but they said the Brexit vote would still slow growth.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家調(diào)高了英國2016年和2017年的增長預(yù)測，撤銷了衰退預(yù)測，但他們表示，退歐公投結(jié)果仍將壓低增長率。

The upward revisions followed good August results in the three main purchasing managers’ surveys — for the services, manufacturing and construction sectors.

此次上調(diào)增長預(yù)期之前，8月的三項主要采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)(服務(wù)業(yè)、制造業(yè)和建筑業(yè))均表現(xiàn)喜人。

Credit Suisse increased its forecast for 2016 growth from 1 per cent to 1.9 per cent and its 2017 forecast from a contraction of 1 per cent to growth of 0.5 per cent.

瑞信把2016年的增長預(yù)測從1%上調(diào)至1.9%，把2017年的預(yù)測從收縮1%，修訂為增長0.5%。

Morgan Stanley said it had changed its forecast because of the latest data “from a sharp slowdown and Brecession, to a lesser slowdown, which narrowly avoids a technical recession”.

摩根士丹利表示，最新數(shù)據(jù)的公布導(dǎo)致其調(diào)整了英國增長預(yù)期，“從大幅放緩和退歐導(dǎo)致的衰退，調(diào)整為更輕微的放緩，避免一場技術(shù)性衰退”。

Both banks expected Brexit would harm the UK economy and both expected the shock would be felt after the Article 50 leaving process was triggered rather than the result itself.

這兩家銀行預(yù)測退歐將損害英國經(jīng)濟(jì)，并都預(yù)計，在英國依照里斯本條約第50條(Article 50)啟動退歐進(jìn)程(而非退歐公投結(jié)果出來)之后，英國經(jīng)濟(jì)將感受到?jīng)_擊。

Melanie Baker of Morgan Stanley said when households notice changes to the economy, they are likely to become more reluctant to spend. “We expect current resilience will be undermined over time by firms holding back on investment and hiring, and an erosion of purchasing power, as the weaker GBP drives a pick-up in inflation,” she said.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的梅拉妮•貝克(Melanie Baker)稱，當(dāng)家家戶戶注意到經(jīng)濟(jì)上的變化時，他們可能會變得更不愿意支出。“我們預(yù)計，隨著時間的推移，企業(yè)不愿投資和招聘將削弱當(dāng)前的韌性，而隨著英鎊疲軟推高通脹，購買力會受到侵蝕。”

Morgan Stanley revised its forecasts up from 1.2 to 1.9 per cent for 2016 and in 2017 from 0.5 to 0.6 per cent.

摩根士丹利將2016年英國增長預(yù)測由1.2%上調(diào)至1.9%，2017年增長預(yù)測由0.5%上調(diào)至0.6%。

Many economists have been revising their forecasts up in response to the latest data, but almost all still expect the UK economy to perform worse after Brexit.

很多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都在根據(jù)最新數(shù)據(jù)上調(diào)英國增長預(yù)期，但是幾乎所有人都仍然預(yù)期，英國經(jīng)濟(jì)在退歐后表現(xiàn)更糟。