美國年輕人畢業(yè)后去哪兒了?

Where Young College Graduates Are Choosing to Live

美國年輕人畢業(yè)后去哪兒了?

When young college graduates decide where to move, they are not just looking at the usual suspects, like New York, Washington and San Francisco. Other cities are increasing their share of these valuable residents at an even higher rate and have reached a high overall percentage, led by Denver, San Diego, Nashville, Salt Lake City and Portland, Ore., according to a report published Monday by City Observatory, a new think tank.

當年輕的高校畢業(yè)生們在決定搬往何處去時，他們考慮的并不僅僅是諸如紐約(New York)、華盛頓(Washington)和舊金山(San Francisco)這樣的常見地點。根據(jù)新成立的智庫City Observatory周一(指10月20日——譯注)發(fā)布的一份報告，在其它城市里，這些寶貴的居民在當?shù)厝丝谥械谋戎厣踔撂嵘酶?，目前已達到一個很高的水平。比重最大的城市包括丹佛(Denver)、圣迭戈(San Diego)、納什維爾(Nashville)、鹽湖城(Salt Lake City)和俄勒岡州波特蘭(Portland, Ore.)。

And as young people continue to spurn the suburbs for urban living, more of them are moving to the very heart of cities — even in economically troubled places like Buffalo and Cleveland. The number of college-educated people age 25 to 34 living within three miles of city centers has surged, up 37 percent since 2000, even as the total population of these neighborhoods has slightly shrunk.

此外，隨著年輕人在不斷擯棄郊區(qū)、追尋都市生活，他們當中有更多人搬到了都市的中心地帶——即使在布法羅(Buffalo)、克利夫蘭 (Cleveland)這樣經(jīng)濟低迷的地區(qū)也是如此。即使這些居住區(qū)的總?cè)丝诼杂锌s減，但就居住在距市中心3英里(約合4.8公里)范圍內(nèi)、且年齡在25 到34歲間的高學歷人士而言，其人數(shù)已經(jīng)比2000年時激增了37%。

Some cities are attracting young talent while their overall population falls, like Pittsburgh and New Orleans. And in a reversal, others that used to be magnets, like Atlanta and Charlotte, are struggling to attract them at the same rate.

有些城市的總?cè)丝跀?shù)雖然有所下滑，但同時也在吸引年輕人才的進駐，比如匹茲堡(Pittsburgh)和新奧爾良(New Orleans)。與此相反，像亞特蘭大(Atlanta)和夏洛特(Charlotte)這些一度吸引年輕人才的磁石，現(xiàn)在卻已大不如前了。

Even as Americans over all have become less likely to move, young, college-educated people continue to move at a high clip — about a million cross state lines each year, and these so-called young and the restless don’t tend to settle down until their mid-30s. Where they end up provides a map of the cities that have a chance to be the economic powerhouses of the future.

即使總體而言，美國人已經(jīng)變得不再頻繁遷居，但是年輕高學歷人群的搬家?guī)茁室廊缓芨?mdash;—每年大約有一百萬人跨越州界，而且這些所謂的“年輕而騷動不安的一代”，不到35歲左右一般是不會定居下來的。而他們最終定居的地方就構(gòu)成了一張地圖，其中的城市有望成為未來的經(jīng)濟增長引擎。

“There is a very strong track record of places that attract talent becoming places of long-term success,” said Edward Glaeser, an economist at Harvard and author of “Triumph of the City.” “The most successful economic development policy is to attract and retain smart people and then get out of their way.”

“曾通過吸引人才取得了長期成功的地方，多得不勝枚舉，”哈佛大學的經(jīng)濟學家、著有《城市的勝利》(Triumph of the City)的愛德華·格萊澤 (Edward Glaeser) 說，“最成功的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展政策，就是吸引和留住聰明人，并且不要擋住他們的路。”

The economic effects reach beyond the work the young people do, according to Enrico Moretti, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, and author of “The New Geography of Jobs.” For every college graduate who takes a job in an innovation industry, he found, five additional jobs are eventually created in that city, such as for waiters, carpenters, doctors, architects and teachers.

加州大學伯克利分校(the University of California, Berkeley)的經(jīng)濟學家恩里克·莫雷蒂(Enrico Moretti)說，年輕人造成的經(jīng)濟效應不僅局限于他們所做的工作。莫雷蒂著有《就業(yè)機會的新布局》(The New Geography of Jobs)。他發(fā)現(xiàn)，每當有一名高校畢業(yè)生進入一個創(chuàng)新行業(yè)就職，這座城市最終就能多創(chuàng)造出五個諸如服務員、木工、醫(yī)生、建筑師和教師這樣的工作崗位。

“It’s a type of growth that feeds on itself — the more young workers you have, the more companies are interested in locating their operations in that area and the more young people are going to move there,” he said.

“這種增長是自我促生的——你吸引到的年輕人才越多，那么有意入駐那個地區(qū)的公司也就越多，這反過來也會吸引更多的年輕人搬過去。”他說。

About 25 percent more young college graduates live in major metropolitan areas today than in 2000, which is double the percentage increase in cities’ total population. All the 51 biggest metros except Detroit have gained young talent, either from net migration to the cities or from residents graduating from college, according to the report. It is based on data from the federal American Community Survey and written by Joe Cortright, an economist who runs City Observatory and Impresa, a consulting firm on regional economies.

與2000年相比，現(xiàn)在居住在主要大都市區(qū)(major metropolitan)的年輕高校畢業(yè)生增加了25%，比城市總?cè)丝诘脑鲩L率高出一倍。報告顯示，除底特律(Detroit)以外，所有大都市區(qū)的年輕人才都有所增加，其來源要么是城市凈移民，要么是從高校畢業(yè)后留在本地的人群。該報告的數(shù)據(jù)源自經(jīng)濟學家喬·科特賴特(Joe Cortright)所撰寫的《美國社區(qū)調(diào)查》(American Community Survey)?？铺刭囂貫镃ity Observatory和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟咨詢公司Impresa的運營者。

Denver has become one of the most powerful magnets. Its population of the young and educated is up 47 percent since 2000, nearly double the percentage increase in the New York metro area. And 7.5 percent of Denver’s population is in this group, more than the national average of 5.2 percent and more than anywhere but Washington, the Bay Area and Boston.

丹佛已經(jīng)成為最吸引年輕人的磁石之一。與2000年相比，其年輕高學歷人口增長了47%，比紐約大都市區(qū)的增長率高出將近一倍。而且，丹佛有7.5%的人口屬于這一群體，超出了5.2%的全國平均水平，僅次于華盛頓、灣區(qū)(Bay Area)和波士頓(Boston)。

Denver has many of the tangible things young people want, economists say, including mountains, sunshine and jobs in booming industries like tech. Perhaps more important, it also has the ones that give cities the perception of cultural cool, like microbreweries and bike-sharing and an acceptance of marijuana and same-sex marriage.

經(jīng)濟學家稱，丹佛有許多實實在在的東西都是年輕人想要的，包括山地、陽光，以及科技類等朝陽產(chǎn)業(yè)里的就業(yè)崗位?；蛟S更重要的是，丹佛具備許多引領文化潮流的特質(zhì)，比如這里不僅有精釀廠、自行車共享計劃，還可以接受大麻和同性婚姻。

“With lots of cultural things to do and getting away to the mountains, you can have the work-play balance more than any place I’ve ever lived,” said Colleen Douglass, 27, a video producer at Craftsy, a start-up with online classes for crafts. “There’s this really thriving start-up scene here, and the sense we can be in a place we love and work at a cool new company but not live in Silicon Valley.”

“住在這里可以參與很多文化活動，還能去山里躲避喧囂。在我住過的其它地方，我都無法將工作和娛樂間的平衡把握得這么好。”27歲的科琳·道格拉斯 (Colleen Douglass)說。道格拉斯在一家創(chuàng)業(yè)公司Craftsy擔任視頻制作人，其業(yè)務是提供手工藝的網(wǎng)絡課程。“這里的創(chuàng)業(yè)氛圍真的很興旺，而且我們可以在自己喜歡的地方居住，在一家很酷的新公司上班，而無需住在硅谷。”

Other cities that have had significant increases in a young and educated population and that now have more than their share include San Diego, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Nashville, Salt Lake City and Portland, Ore.

還有一些早已出現(xiàn)年輕高學歷人口顯著增長趨勢的城市，如今其比重已達到了很高水平。這些城市包括：圣迭戈、巴爾的摩(Baltimore)、匹茲堡、印第安納波利斯(Indianapolis)、納什維爾、鹽湖城和俄勒岡州波特蘭。

At the other end of the spectrum are the cities where less than 4 percent of the population are young college graduates. Among those, Detroit lost about 10 percent of this group, while Providence gained just 6 percent and Memphis 10 percent.

再看看光譜的另一端。在有些城市，年輕高校畢業(yè)生在人口中的占比僅為不到4%。其中，底特律損失了大約10%的年輕高學歷人口;而在普羅維登斯(Providence)和孟菲斯(Memphis)，年輕高學歷人口的占比分別只有6%和10%。

Atlanta, one of the biggest net gainers of young graduates in the 1990s, has taken a sharp turn. Its young, educated population has increased just 2.8 percent since 2000, significantly less than its overall population. It is suffering the consequences of overenthusiasm for new houses and new jobs before the crash, economists say.

在20世紀90年代，亞特蘭大曾經(jīng)是年輕畢業(yè)生人口凈增長率最高的城市之一，而如今，情況已急轉(zhuǎn)直下。從2000年開始，當?shù)啬贻p高學歷人口只增長了2.8%，顯著低于總?cè)丝诘脑龇?。?jīng)濟學家表示，由于經(jīng)濟崩潰前，亞特蘭大過于熱衷建造新房和新增工作崗位，目前它正在吞下苦果。

The population of young, educated people in Dallas, Charlotte and Raleigh is also growing more slowly than their populations as a whole.

在達拉斯(Dallas)、夏洛特和羅利(Raleigh)，年輕高學歷人口的增長速度也低于總?cè)丝谠鏊佟?/p>

The effects of the migration of the young and the restless are most vividly seen in urban cores. In 1980, young adults were 10 percent more likely than other people to live in these areas, according to the report from City Observatory, which is sponsored by the Knight Foundation. In 2010, they were 51 percent more likely, and those with college degrees were 126 percent more likely. The trend extends to all the largest metropolitan areas except Detroit and Birmingham, Ala.

年輕而不安的一代所造成的移民效應，在都市的中心地帶最為明顯。根據(jù)奈特基金會(Knight Foundation)贊助City Observatory發(fā)布的報告，1980年，年輕成年人住在這些地帶的幾率比其他人群高出10%。2010年這一比率達到了51%，而具備高等教育學歷的人群居住在這里的幾率，比其他人群高出了126%。這一趨勢幾乎蔓延到了所有頂級規(guī)模的都市區(qū)，只有底特律和阿拉巴馬州的伯明翰 (Birmingham,Ala)除外。

Of the metropolitan areas with the most populous city centers, Washington and Philadelphia showed the largest increases of young adults living there, at 75 and 78 percent. Other cities that have made big gains in that category are Baltimore, Los Angeles, San Diego, Dallas, Miami and St. Louis. Washington also had the largest share of young college graduates over all, at 8.1 percent.

在市中心人口最稠密的大都市區(qū)當中，華盛頓和費城(Philadelphia)的年輕成年人人口增幅最大，分別為75%和78%。其它增幅較高的城市包括巴爾的摩、洛杉磯(Los Angeles)、圣迭戈、達拉斯、邁阿密(Miami)和圣路易斯(St. Louis)。同時，華盛頓還擁有全國最高的年輕高校畢業(yè)生人口占比，達到8.1%。