金融英語泛讀:如何從通貨再膨脹中獲利

Reflation and How to Exploit It如何從通貨再膨脹中獲利

The most talked-about investing strategy these days isn't stuffing money in a mattress, it's the reflation trade-the bet that the world economy will rebound, driving up interest rates and commodities prices.

Even though the economy continues to struggle, investors are looking ahead to the time when the massive rescue efforts by central banks and governments gain traction.

They are focused on raw materials and commodity-related stocks that would benefit from the surge in infrastructure spending. They are looking to exploit potential bottlenecks in production that could lift prices and corporate earnings.

“Between the bailouts and the stimulus, it's pretty clear that we're going to have some inflation when we get out of this mess，”says Roger lbbotson, founder of lbbotson Associates and chairman of hedge-fund manager Zebra Capital Management. He says，“It may not show up for another two years, after that I think it's quite likely and I think you should be positioning a portfolio against that.”

Shawn Rubin, an adviser at Smith Barney in New York, has moved some clients partly into natural-resources stocks while using strategies to protect against a spike in inflation.

One way is to use options, where an investor is able to use relatively small amounts of money and take positions that would profit from a massive drop in Treasury prices or a near doubling in gold prices.“While in the short run such trades may not work, it's a long-term move，”Mr. Rubin says.“You should buy insurance when it's cheap.”

And despite the recentl altirity that lifted stocks 20%from their lows as of Thursday-the common definition of the return to a bull market, though they promptly fell again Friday-most investors expect a challenging environment well into next year.

But the Federal Reserve has taken dramatic steps to revive the economy and stabilize the financial system. It has lowered interest rates essentially to zero and is on track to pump more than$2 trillion into the credit markets.

On top of that, there is the$787 billion federal stimulus program coupled with a growing budget deficit. Around the globe central banks and governments are making similar moves.

Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at Northern Trust, says，“the Fed will likely err on the side of ensuring that the recovery is sustained and usually that means they will be late in turning against inflation. The political sentiment will be toward inflation and in preventing deflation，”he adds.

Mr. Liinamaa suggests investors keep a“survivor bias.”That means“l(fā)ooking for names that have low cost structures and balance-sheet capacity to still be standing”even if demand doesn't recover soon.He cites steel producer Nucor as one example.

Already there are signs that the market is less worried about deflation. That's clearest in the market for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.Back in February, five-year TIPS were priced for a 0.5%drop in consumer prices, now that's swung around to a 1.35%increase.

“The magnitude of the expected inflation rise predicted by TIPS may be small, but the direction tells the tale，”says John Hollyer, a co-manager of Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund.

“The fiscal and monetary stimulus are causing investors to say there's a decent chance the Fed will be successful and there will be an increase in inflation，”he says.

就市場而言，最近談得最多的投資策略并不是尋求避險，而是通貨再膨脹交易——全球經(jīng)濟將復(fù)蘇，從而提升利率水平和大宗商品價格的可能性。

即便目前經(jīng)濟仍然走勢蹣跚，投資者卻具有前瞻性地看到了各國央行和政府的大規(guī)模救助舉措發(fā)揮作用的時刻。

他們重點關(guān)注原材料和大宗商品相關(guān)類股，這些類股可能會從基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出的飆升中受益。他們還期望從生產(chǎn)瓶頸中獲利，生產(chǎn)瓶頸會推高價格和企業(yè)利潤。

伊博森伙伴咨詢公司創(chuàng)始人、對沖基金公司斑馬資本管理有限公司董事長伊博森說：“在諸多救助計劃和刺激計劃中，很明顯我們走出經(jīng)濟危機的時候會出現(xiàn)一些通貨膨脹。”他說，“或許這種情況兩年之內(nèi)不會出現(xiàn)，但我認為在兩年之后，很有可能出現(xiàn)，我覺得你們應(yīng)該針對這種情況設(shè)置一個投資組合?！笔访芩埂ぐ钅峁抉v紐約顧問肖恩·魯賓已經(jīng)將一些客戶的部分投資轉(zhuǎn)移至自然資源類股，同時使用策略應(yīng)對通貨膨脹上升的風(fēng)險。

期權(quán)是一種手段，投資者可以使用相對較少的資金，建立頭寸應(yīng)對國債價格大幅下挫或金價上漲將近一倍的情況。如果出現(xiàn)這種情況，他們就能從中獲利。魯賓說：“盡管此類交易短期可能不會奏效，但這是一個長期性舉措，你得趁成本低廉的時候就采取防范性措施?！?/p>

盡管在近期漲勢的推動下，截至上周四美國股市較低點回升了20%——達到了通常的牛市回歸標準，不過上周五再次急劇下滑——但多數(shù)投資者仍認為明年會遭遇更為困難的環(huán)境。不過，美國聯(lián)邦儲備系統(tǒng)（Fed，簡稱：美聯(lián)儲）已經(jīng)采取許多重大舉措重振經(jīng)濟，穩(wěn)定金融體系。美聯(lián)儲已經(jīng)將利率下調(diào)到實際為零的水平，并正在逐步向信貸市場注入超過2萬億美元。

除此之外，聯(lián)邦政府還有7870億美元的刺激計劃以及不斷擴大的預(yù)算赤字。全球主要央行和政府都在采取類似舉措。

北美信托銀行有限公司經(jīng)濟研究主管保羅·卡斯里爾表示：“美聯(lián)儲在確保經(jīng)濟持續(xù)復(fù)蘇時可能會出現(xiàn)錯誤，這通常意味著他們在遏制通貨膨脹方面的行動可能會遲緩?！彼a充說，“政治輿論將會傾向于刺激通脹和防止通縮?！?/p>

利納馬建議投資者考慮那些能夠生存下來的公司。這意味著尋找那些成本結(jié)構(gòu)較低、資產(chǎn)負債能力強勁的公司，即便需求短期難以復(fù)蘇，它們?nèi)匀粫嫦聛?。他說紐科鋼鐵公司就是這樣一個例子。

已經(jīng)有跡象顯示市場并不是那么擔(dān)憂通貨緊縮。這點在美國財政部通貨膨脹保值債券（TIPS）的市場上表現(xiàn)最為明顯。今年2月，5年期通貨膨脹保值債券的走勢顯示，市場預(yù)計美國消費者價格會下跌0.5%，但目前的走勢已經(jīng)逆轉(zhuǎn)，市場認為消費者價格會上升大約1.35%。

先鋒抗通脹債券基金的聯(lián)席經(jīng)理霍爾耶說：“通貨膨脹保值債券走勢所預(yù)計的通貨膨脹率幅度或許不大，但方向說明了一切。”

他說：“財政和貨幣刺激舉措正促使投資者相信美聯(lián)儲很可能會取得成功，通貨膨脹也很有可能上升?！?/p>

實戰(zhàn)提升

核心單詞

rebound[ri'baund]v.重新振作；回升

surge[s?：d?]n.激增

infrastructure['infr?'str?kt??]n.基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施；基本建設(shè)

promptly['pr?mptli]adv.敏捷地；迅速地

magnitude['m?gnitju:d]n.量；大?。粡姸?/p>

財經(jīng)知識一點通

基金（fund）

從廣義上講，基金是機構(gòu)投資者的統(tǒng)稱，包括信托投資基金、單位信托基金、公積金、保險基金、退休基金以及各種基金會的基金?，F(xiàn)有證券市場上的基金，包括封閉式基金和開放式基金，具有收益性功能和增值潛能的特點。從會計角度透析，基金是一個狹義的概念，意指具有特定目的和用途的資金。因為政府和事業(yè)單位的出資者不要求投資回報和投資收回，但要求按法律規(guī)定或出資者的意愿把資金用在指定的用途上，從而形成了基金。

期權(quán)（option）

它是在期貨的基礎(chǔ)上產(chǎn)生的一種金融工具。從其本質(zhì)上講，期權(quán)實質(zhì)上是將在金融領(lǐng)域中的權(quán)利和義務(wù)分開進行定價，使得權(quán)利的受讓人在規(guī)定時間內(nèi)對于是否進行交易而行使其權(quán)利，而義務(wù)方則必須履行。在期權(quán)的交易中，購買期權(quán)的合約方稱作買方，而出售合約的一方則叫作賣方。期權(quán)分為看漲期權(quán)和看跌期權(quán)。

翻譯練習(xí)

They are focused on raw materials and commodity-related stocks that would benefit from the surge in infrastructure spending.

But the Federal Reserve has taken dramatic steps to revive the economy and stabilize the financial system.

Already there are signs that the market is less worried about deflation.