如何減少未來疾病大流行的風險

如何減少未來疾病大流行的風險

There has been plenty of ink spilled about how life will look after the COVID-19 pandemic, from open-air schools to scattered desks in offices – but we don't hear much beyond that. Sure, we are still in the thick of it, but really there's no time like the present to start thinking about how to prevent the next outbreak of zoonotic disease. (Zoonotic diseases are those that "jump" from animals to humans, like the new coronavirus, as well as SARS, ebola, and MERS.)

從露天的學校到辦公室里分散的辦公桌，關(guān)于如何應(yīng)對COVID-19大流行的討論已經(jīng)有了很多筆墨，但除此之外，我們沒有聽到太多。當然，我們還處在疫情的最嚴重階段，但現(xiàn)在是時候開始考慮如何防止下一次人畜共患疾病的爆發(fā)了。(人畜共患疾病是指那些從動物“跳躍”到人類的疾病，如新型冠狀病毒，以及SARS、埃博拉和中東呼吸綜合征。)

Previously, Treehugger reported on the Wildlife Conservation Society's strategy to reduce the risk of future pandemics in three steps; stop wildlife trade, stop wildlife consumption, and stop destroying nature.

此前，環(huán)保人士Treehugger報道了野生動物保護協(xié)會的策略，以三步走的方式降低未來流行病的風險;停止野生動物貿(mào)易，停止野生動物消費，停止破壞自然。

Deforestation in the Amazon. luoman / Getty Images

Now researchers from University College London (UCL) have dug deeper and conclude that:

現(xiàn)在，來自倫敦大學學院(UCL)的研究人員進行了更深入的研究，并得出結(jié)論:

We may need to alter how we use land across the world to reduce the risk of future spillovers of infectious diseases.

我們可能需要改變世界各地的土地利用方式，以減少未來傳染病蔓延的風險。

"Global changes in land use are disrupting the balance of wild animal communities in our environment, and species that carry diseases known to infect humans appear to be benefiting."

“全球土地利用的變化正在破壞我們環(huán)境中野生動物群落的平衡，而那些攜帶已知會感染人類疾病的物種似乎從中受益。”

The research, which has been published in the journal Nature, may provide insight into future spillovers of diseases originating in animals.

這項發(fā)表在《自然》雜志上的研究，可能會對源自動物的疾病的未來溢出效應(yīng)提供見解。

The team, led by the UCL Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, looked at data from 6,801 ecological communities from six continents, and found that animals that carry human-disease-causing microorganisms were more common in landscapes intensively used by people, explains UCL. All told, they examined evidence that included around 7,000 species, 376 of which are known to carry human-shared pathogens.

倫敦大學學院解釋說，這個由倫敦大學學院生物多樣性和環(huán)境研究中心領(lǐng)導的團隊觀察了來自六大洲的6801個生態(tài)群落的數(shù)據(jù)，發(fā)現(xiàn)攜帶人類致病微生物的動物在人類密集使用的景觀中更為常見?？偟膩碚f，他們檢查了大約7000個物種的證據(jù)，其中376個已知攜帶人類共有的病原體。

As examples of land-use change, the authors cite the conversion of natural habitats to agricultural or urban ecosystems.

作為土地使用變化的例子，作者列舉了自然棲息地向農(nóng)業(yè)或城市生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的轉(zhuǎn)變。

Lead author Rory Gibb says, "The way humans change landscapes across the world, from natural forest to farmland for example, has consistent impacts on many wild animal species, causing some to decline while some others persist or increase." He adds:

該研究的第一作者Rory Gibb說:“人類改變世界各地景觀的方式，例如從天然林到農(nóng)田，對許多野生動物物種產(chǎn)生了持續(xù)的影響，導致一些物種減少，而另一些則持續(xù)或增加。”他補充說:

Our findings show that the animals that remain in more human-dominated environments are those that are more likely to carry infectious diseases that can make people sick.

我們的研究結(jié)果表明，生活在人類主導環(huán)境中的動物更容易攜帶傳染病，從而使人類患病。

"Other studies have found that outbreaks of emerging zoonotic infectious diseases appear to be increasingly common," says author Doctor David Redding. "Our findings may help to explain that pattern, by clarifying the underlying ecological change processes that are interacting to drive infection risks."

“其他研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，新出現(xiàn)的人畜共患傳染病的爆發(fā)似乎越來越常見，”作者大衛(wèi)·雷丁博士說。“我們的發(fā)現(xiàn)可能有助于解釋這種模式，通過闡明潛在的生態(tài)變化過程，說明相互作用導致感染風險。”

According to research by Navin Ramankutty, an agricultural geographer at the University of British Columbia (and not involved in the UCL study), only 23% of Earth's land remains wild. Farmland and human settlement are taking over, pushing out native species and creating dangerous opportunities for pathogens to find their way into human populations.

根據(jù)英屬哥倫比亞大學的農(nóng)業(yè)地理學家Navin Ramankutty(沒有參與倫敦大學學院的研究)的研究，地球上只有23%的土地仍然是野生的。農(nóng)田和人類定居點正在占據(jù)上風，趕走了本土物種，并為病原體進入人類創(chuàng)造了危險的機會。

The UCL study concludes that "global changes in the mode and the intensity of land use are creating expanding hazardous interfaces between people, livestock and wildlife reservoirs of zoonotic disease."

倫敦大學學院的研究得出的結(jié)論是:“土地利用方式和強度的全球變化，正在擴大人畜共患傳染病的宿主、人類、牲畜和野生動物之間的危險界面。”

"Our findings provide a context for thinking about how to manage land use changes more sustainably in ways that take into account potential risks not only to biodiversity," says Redding, "but also to human health."

“我們的發(fā)現(xiàn)為思考如何以更可持續(xù)的方式管理土地利用變化提供了一個背景，這種方式不僅考慮了對生物多樣性的潛在風險，也考慮了對人類健康的潛在風險，”Redding說。