韓國女性平均壽命可能率先超過90歲

Life spans in the world’s wealthiest countries will continue to increase in the future, and women in South Korea may be the first to live longer than 90 years on average, a new study has found.

一項(xiàng)新研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，世界上最富有國家居民的壽命將會繼續(xù)延長，韓國婦女的平均壽命可能最先超過90歲。

The study — a mathematical model blending 21 other forecasts and published in The Lancet — gave South Korean women born in 2030 a 57 percent chance of hitting the over-90 longevity mark. The surest bet was that they would exceed age 86 on average.

這項(xiàng)研究是一個(gè)包含其他21項(xiàng)預(yù)測的數(shù)學(xué)模型，發(fā)表在《柳葉刀》雜志(The Lancet)上。該研究預(yù)測，2030年出生于韓國的女性有57%可能活過90歲。最確定的預(yù)測是她們的平均壽命會超過86歲。

Compared with women from 34 other industrialized nations the study assessed, South Korean women generally smoke less, weigh less, have lower blood pressure and see doctors more often because most have health insurance.

與該研究評估的其他34個(gè)工業(yè)化國家的女性相比，韓國女性總體來說吸煙較少，體重較輕，血壓較低，更常看醫(yī)生——因?yàn)榇蟛糠秩硕加嗅t(yī)療保險(xiǎn)。

Women in France, Japan and Spain also were expected to live longer. Currently Japanese women live the longest, but their progress will probably stagnate, the study said.

法國、日本和西班牙的女性也有望活得更久。目前，日本女性壽命最長，但該研究認(rèn)為，她們的進(jìn)步很可能會停滯。

South Korea also led the list for longevity in men, followed by Australia, Switzerland, Canada and the Netherlands; men from all of those countries were expected to live beyond 80 on average.

韓國男性也位于長壽名單的榜首，其次是澳大利亞、瑞士、加拿大和荷蘭。這些國家男性的平均壽命都有望超過80歲。

The United States, as usual, fared badly. American men and women are in 23rd and 27th place, respectively, in terms of life expectancy, and they were expected to fall farther as other countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, improve.

美國的情況像往常一樣糟糕。美國的男性和女性分別在預(yù)期壽命榜單上名列第23位和第27位。隨著其他國家，尤其是東歐國家的改善，美國的名次有可能進(jìn)一步下降。

Although the United States has advanced medicine, it has an obesity epidemic, little focus on preventive care, relatively high mortality among babies of uninsured mothers, and high male death rates from gunshot wounds and car accidents.

美國雖然醫(yī)學(xué)先進(jìn)，但居民普遍肥胖，很少關(guān)注預(yù)防保健，無保險(xiǎn)母親的嬰兒死亡率較高，男性死于槍傷和車禍的幾率較高。

American men live on average about as long as men in Slovenia and Portugal, and average longevity in other countries, including South Korea, the Czech Republic and Hungary, is improving faster.

美國男性的平均壽命與斯洛文尼亞和葡萄牙的男性相當(dāng)，而韓國、捷克共和國和匈牙利等國的男性平均壽命正在更快地提升。

The model assumes that current trends will continue. History often invalidates that assumption, however, because health is tied to political events.

該模型假設(shè)當(dāng)前的趨勢會繼續(xù)。然而，歷史往往會推翻這種假設(shè)，因?yàn)榻】蹬c政治事件關(guān)系很大。

Longevity in Africa rose rapidly in the 1950s and ’60s with the spread of antibiotics and vaccines, flattened as the collapse of colonialism bankrupted health care systems, plummeted in the 1990s with the spread of AIDS, and is now rising again as donors pay for AIDS drugs.

在20世紀(jì)五六十年代，非洲人的壽命由于抗生素和疫苗的普及而迅速增長，而隨著殖民主義的瓦解，醫(yī)療保健系統(tǒng)出現(xiàn)崩潰，這種增長逐漸放平。在20世紀(jì)90年代，隨著艾滋病的蔓延，平均壽命大幅下跌，現(xiàn)在又由于捐助者支付艾滋病藥物而有所回升。

Among wealthier nations, progress in Eastern Europe followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. South Korea’s projected gains would most likely be seriously compromised if the current tensions with North Korea were to lead to war.

在更富裕的國家里，隨著蘇聯(lián)的瓦解，東歐取得了進(jìn)步。如果目前與朝鮮的緊張局勢導(dǎo)致戰(zhàn)爭，韓國的預(yù)期增長很可能會受到嚴(yán)重影響。