中國(guó)“市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)”地位遇阻將引爆新貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)？

China is gearing up for a new round of trade battles with the US, EU and other leading trading powers after failing to secure widespread recognition for a bid to be viewed as a “market economy” under World Trade Organisation rules.

中國(guó)準(zhǔn)備迎來與美國(guó)、歐盟(EU)及其他主要貿(mào)易大國(guó)的新一輪貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。此前，它主張依據(jù)世貿(mào)組織(WTO)規(guī)則自己應(yīng)被視為“市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體”，但這一主張未能獲得廣泛認(rèn)可。

Beijing has been pushing for a provision that allows trading partners to use a special formula to calculate punitive tariffs for non-market economies in anti-dumping cases to expire with Sunday’s 15th anniversary of its WTO membership.

北京方面一直力主一項(xiàng)條款應(yīng)于上周日中國(guó)成為WTO成員國(guó)15年周年時(shí)終止執(zhí)行。該條款允許各貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)在反傾銷案中，使用一個(gè)特殊公式來計(jì)算針對(duì)非市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的懲罰性關(guān)稅。

But that expiry is now in dispute. A move once viewed as automatic has become increasingly contentious after cheap Chinese steel flooded on to world markets and sparked a wave of politically sensitive anti-dumping cases. As a result, China is being forced to challenge new dumping cases brought against it in the US and other jurisdictions in a process that could take years and prove a significant irritant in Beijing’s trade relations with the world.

但是，該條款的終止執(zhí)行如今卻存在爭(zhēng)議。該條款曾被認(rèn)為應(yīng)自動(dòng)終止執(zhí)行，但由于廉價(jià)中國(guó)鋼材融入世界市場(chǎng)、引發(fā)了一波具有政治敏感性的反傾銷案，這種處理已引起越來越大的爭(zhēng)議。其結(jié)果是，中國(guó)將不得不對(duì)在美國(guó)和其他司法管轄區(qū)發(fā)起的對(duì)華新反傾銷案提出抗辯，這個(gè)過程可能會(huì)持續(xù)數(shù)年，并成為中國(guó)與世界貿(mào)易關(guān)系中的一大問題源。

In a sign of the commercial stakes, the US on Friday imposed punitive anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese-made washing machines, imports into the US of which were worth more than $1.1bn last year. It also announced the launch of a new anti-dumping investigation into plywood imports from China, which were also worth more than $1bn last year.

具有重要商業(yè)意義的一個(gè)跡象是，上周五美國(guó)對(duì)輸美中國(guó)產(chǎn)洗衣機(jī)開征懲罰性關(guān)稅。去年，中國(guó)對(duì)美洗衣機(jī)出口額超過11億美元。美國(guó)還宣布，對(duì)從中國(guó)進(jìn)口的膠合板發(fā)起新的反傾銷調(diào)查。去年，中國(guó)對(duì)美膠合板出口額超過10億美元。

Those US cases and the fight over Beijing’s market economy status point to the battles over trade already being fought with China even as Donald Trump, the incoming president, promises to get tough with Beijing over trade and other issues.

美國(guó)發(fā)起的反傾銷案，以及圍繞中國(guó)“市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)”地位展開的斗爭(zhēng)，都是與中國(guó)正在打的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的例子。而就在此時(shí)，美國(guó)侯任總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)發(fā)誓要在貿(mào)易和其他問題上對(duì)中國(guó)采取強(qiáng)硬態(tài)度。

"One of the most important relations we must improve . . . is our relationship with China," Mr Trump said last week. "China is responsible for almost half of America's trade deficit [and] they haven't played by the rules."

“我們必須改進(jìn)的最重要關(guān)系之一……就是我們與中國(guó)的關(guān)系。”特朗普上周說，“中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)將近一半的貿(mào)易赤字負(fù)責(zé)，(而且)他們不按規(guī)則行事。”

China's Commerce Ministry has vowed to take "necessary measures" against any WTO member that refuses to regard it as a market economy in dumping cases. Beijing’s WTO accession agreement says that “in any event” a clause allowing other nations to use third countries to calculate prices would expire after 15 years. Sunday was the 15th anniversary of its accession.

中國(guó)商務(wù)部發(fā)誓，要對(duì)一切在反傾銷案中拒絕把中國(guó)視為市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的WTO成員國(guó)采取“必要措施”。中國(guó)的“入世”協(xié)議稱，“在任何情況下”，一項(xiàng)允許其他國(guó)家使用第三國(guó)相關(guān)價(jià)格水準(zhǔn)來計(jì)算中方成本的條款都應(yīng)在15年后終止執(zhí)行。上周日是中國(guó)“入世”15周年。

"This is a question of protecting our rights and maintaining the rules," said Xue Rongjiu, vice-president of the WTO Institute, a think-tank affiliated with the ministry of commerce. “China isn't the China of yesteryear. The reaction will be firm."

“這是一個(gè)保護(hù)我們權(quán)利和維護(hù)規(guī)則的問題，”中國(guó)商務(wù)部下屬智庫(kù)“中國(guó)世界貿(mào)易組織研究會(huì)”副會(huì)長(zhǎng)薛榮久說，“現(xiàn)在的中國(guó)已經(jīng)不是過去的中國(guó)。中國(guó)的反制將是堅(jiān)決的。”

The US and others argue that China has failed to live up to many of its WTO obligations and remains far from a market economy. In the EU, US, UK and elsewhere, the closure of steel plants after a flood of cheap Chinese steel, plus a slowing global economy, caused a collapse in global steel prices that has also driven a political backlash. Mr Trump and others have seized on the economic impact.

美國(guó)和其他國(guó)家辯稱，中國(guó)未能履行WTO下的許多義務(wù)，而且遠(yuǎn)非一個(gè)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體。在歐盟、美國(guó)、英國(guó)和其他地區(qū)，鋼鐵企業(yè)在大量廉價(jià)中國(guó)鋼材涌入后倒閉，再加上全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩，導(dǎo)致全球鋼鐵價(jià)格大幅下跌，這也引發(fā)了政治上的反彈。特朗普和其他人對(duì)這一經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊加以了利用。

“They have acted like a non-market economy in so many respects with their state-owned companies, with subsidies, with dumping. I mean there are more dumping cases brought against China than against all the other countries combined,” said Sandy Levin, the top Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee.

“考慮到他們的國(guó)有企業(yè)、補(bǔ)貼和傾銷，他們?cè)诤芏喾矫娑急憩F(xiàn)得像是一個(gè)非市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體。我的意思是，對(duì)中國(guó)發(fā)起的反傾銷案比對(duì)其他所有國(guó)家發(fā)起的反傾銷案之和還要多，”眾議院籌款委員會(huì)(House Ways and Means Committee)最資深的民主黨人桑迪•萊文(Sandy Levin)說。

The debacle has prompted calls for change in the EU in particular. Brussels is in the process of considering a fundamental shift in how it conducts anti-dumping and other trade remedy cases to allow it to impose far higher punitive tariffs than it does now.

尤其要指出的是，這種面對(duì)中國(guó)一敗涂地的局面已在歐盟內(nèi)部引發(fā)了要求改變的呼聲。布魯塞爾方面正考慮徹底改變其操作反傾銷和其他貿(mào)易補(bǔ)救案的辦法，使其能夠開征比現(xiàn)在高得多的懲罰性關(guān)稅。

Chad Bown, a former White House economist now at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said countries such as Brazil and India have also become much more aggressive in bringing anti-dumping cases against China.

曾任白宮經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、如今在彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所(PIIE)任職的查德•鮑恩(Chad Bown)表示，巴西和印度等國(guó)也在對(duì)華發(fā)起反傾銷案方面變得比以前積極得多。

“This is an issue for China and everybody in the world, not just the US and Europe,” Mr Bown said.

“這是中國(guó)同世界各國(guó)、而不只是同美、歐之間的一個(gè)問題，”鮑恩說。

The commercial fear is that China may not wait for a challenge to the refusal to grant market economy status to work through the WTO system, a process that could take years. Instead, it could respond with a wave of retaliatory anti-dumping tariffs of its own that would hurt exporters in other countries.

商業(yè)界擔(dān)心，中國(guó)可能不會(huì)等到就他國(guó)拒絕授予其“市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)”地位提起的申訴走完WTO程序再采取行動(dòng)。相反，中國(guó)可能會(huì)以它自己開征的一波報(bào)復(fù)性反傾銷關(guān)稅來反制，這將傷及其他國(guó)家的出口商。

The debate, however, also comes amid bigger systemic concerns surrounding the WTO and trade.

不過，這場(chǎng)爭(zhēng)論發(fā)生的同時(shí)，外界對(duì)WTO和貿(mào)易也產(chǎn)生了更大的系統(tǒng)性擔(dān)憂。

Mr Trump won his election on a protectionist platform and he is unlikely to usher in any change in approach on China’s market economy bid. But both his vow to pull the US out of big Pacific Rim trade negotiations and the scepticism he has expressed about the WTO mean many already see China filling a more important leadership role in global trade talks.

特朗普是靠保護(hù)主義政綱勝選的，他不大可能對(duì)美國(guó)對(duì)待中國(guó)“市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)”地位問題的立場(chǎng)作出任何改變。但是，他發(fā)誓讓美國(guó)退出大規(guī)模的環(huán)太平洋貿(mào)易談判，并表示對(duì)WTO持懷疑態(tài)度，許多人已據(jù)此認(rèn)為，中國(guó)將在全球貿(mào)易談判中扮演更重要的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)角色。

Some question how constructive that Chinese role is likely to be. Beijing’s focus on the market economy debate and other pet issues has also alienated other WTO members, who blamed China for this month’s failure to reach an agreement on the trade in environmental goods. “If that’s Chinese leadership then we are not going to be doing much in the next five years,” said one senior trade official in Geneva.

一些人懷疑中國(guó)扮演的角色到底會(huì)有多大建設(shè)性。中國(guó)對(duì)“市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)”地位和別的其所熱衷的議題的關(guān)注，也令其他WTO成員國(guó)疏遠(yuǎn)了它，這些成員國(guó)將本月未能就環(huán)境產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易達(dá)成一項(xiàng)協(xié)議歸咎于中國(guó)。“如果這就是中國(guó)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)作用，那么我們?cè)谖磥砦迥曜霾怀啥嗌偈虑椋?rdquo;日內(nèi)瓦的一位資深貿(mào)易官員表示。

The Chinese side, for its part, is frustrated with developed countries’ apparent double-standards on the market economy access and other issues important for Chinese exporters.

中國(guó)一方則對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家在“市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)”地位認(rèn)定和其他對(duì)中國(guó)出口商而言重要的問題上明顯持雙重標(biāo)準(zhǔn)感到沮喪。