劉文勇GRE寫(xiě)作Argument題庫(kù) Day 19

Day 19 Two years ago, radio station WCQP in Rockville decided to increase the number of call-in advice programs that it broadcast

Two years ago, radio station WCQP in Rockville decided to increase the number of call-in advice programs that it broadcast; since that time, its share of the radio audience in the Rockville listening area has increased significantly. Given WCQP's recent success with call-in advice programming, and citing a nationwide survey indicating that many radio listeners are quite interested in such programs, the station manager of KICK in Medway recommends that KICK include more call-in advice programs in an attempt to gain a larger audience share in its listening area.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

五問(wèn)：

（1）“Two years ago, radio station WCQP in Rockville decided to increase the number of call-in advice programs that it broadcast; since that time, its share of the radio audience in the Rockville listening area has increased significantly”和“a nationwide survey indicating that many radio listeners are quite interested in such programs”是事實(shí)， “the station manager of KICK in Medway recommends that KICK include more call-in advice programs in an attempt to gain a larger audience share in its listening area”是結(jié)論，值得反駁嗎？

（2）當(dāng)我們將兩個(gè)事物（本題為兩個(gè)不同地區(qū)的電臺(tái)）進(jìn)行類(lèi)比時(shí)，是否應(yīng)該辨認(rèn)兩者之間可能不同的特質(zhì)有哪些？例如：兩個(gè)地區(qū)的聽(tīng)眾的喜好是否一樣。這些特質(zhì)是否能夠直接用于類(lèi)比？電話咨詢(xún)節(jié)目在 Rockville受歡迎，就表明它也適用于 Medway嗎？如果 Medway的聽(tīng)眾恰好討厭電話咨詢(xún)節(jié)目呢？

（3）調(diào)查研究是可信的嗎？一個(gè)全國(guó)性的調(diào)查研究能夠用于本地的電臺(tái)決策嗎？當(dāng)?shù)氐牧?xí)俗是否可能導(dǎo)致聽(tīng)眾習(xí)慣與其他地方不同？這是一個(gè)典型的由整體特征簡(jiǎn)單地推導(dǎo)出部分特征的邏輯錯(cuò)誤。

（4）兩年前的策略現(xiàn)在還適用嗎？是否有可能電話咨詢(xún)節(jié)目現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)被新的流行取代了呢？

（5）我們能否簡(jiǎn)單地認(rèn)為，WCQP電臺(tái)的聽(tīng)眾增長(zhǎng)一定是因?yàn)槟撤N策略嗎？一定只因?yàn)槟撤N策略嗎？最重要的原因一定是某種策略嗎？有沒(méi)有可能是因?yàn)樵撾娕_(tái)加大了宣傳力度，或者換了一些更優(yōu)秀的主持人？