特朗普盯上美國(guó)汽車業(yè)，悄然舉起大棒

面對(duì)特朗普征收高額關(guān)稅的威脅，美國(guó)汽車制造商紛紛表示將減少在墨西哥的投資，把工作崗位送回美國(guó)。它們真會(huì)如此妥協(xié)嗎？

以下為本視頻中英文文本。

It's the best of times and the worst of times.

這是最好的時(shí)代，也是最壞的時(shí)代。

In the U.S.auto industry, sales are at an all-time high, but so is nervousness over what president-elect Donald Trump may do to punish carmakers for trying to make cars cheaply in Mexico and sell them in the United States.

美國(guó)汽車制造業(yè)眼下就是如此。汽車銷售前所未有的強(qiáng)勁，但車企的緊張情緒也達(dá)到了頂點(diǎn)，因?yàn)楫?dāng)選總統(tǒng)特朗普威脅要懲罰這個(gè)行業(yè)，指責(zé)他們?cè)谀鞲绫阋说卦燔嚕缓筚u回給美國(guó)人。

Here at the Detroit Auto Show, car makers are tiptoeing through a minefield.No one wants to say anything that will set off yet another tweet storm from Mr.Trump, who has threatened one carmaker after another with punitive tariffs on cars made in Mexico and imported to the US.

在底特律車展上，參展商都在小心翼翼地繞過(guò)雷區(qū)，沒(méi)人敢多說(shuō)一句，生怕會(huì)觸發(fā)特朗普又一場(chǎng)“推文風(fēng)暴”。特朗普已經(jīng)威脅了一家又一家美國(guó)車企，要向它們?cè)谀鞲缟a(chǎn)、再出口至美國(guó)的車征收懲罰性關(guān)稅。

Some like Ford have already caved in to the pressure and cancelled Mexican factories.Others are rushing to repackage old investment as new U.S.expenditure, anything to shield themselves from that tweet that torpedoes their share price.

一些車企已經(jīng)在壓力下妥協(xié)，例如福特已經(jīng)取消了在墨西哥建立工廠的計(jì)劃。其它車企急急忙忙把過(guò)去的投資計(jì)劃重新打包成在美國(guó)的支出項(xiàng)目。大家使出渾身解數(shù)，只為了讓特朗普不再發(fā)推特，打擊它們的股價(jià)。

行業(yè)分析師Michelle Krebs：

Automakers are on pins and needles because this industry really doesn't like uncertainty, especially in an industry where you have to plan your products 4 years 8 years from now.It's already hard enough to figure out what consumers want, then add a layer of politics and it is challenging.

美國(guó)汽車制造業(yè)現(xiàn)在膽戰(zhàn)心驚，這個(gè)行業(yè)憎恨不確定性。尤其是因?yàn)?，它需要在四年前、八年前就制定造車?jì)劃。要搞清楚消費(fèi)者的口味已經(jīng)夠難了，現(xiàn)在還要增加上政治因素——這太具有挑戰(zhàn)性了。

If President Trump does put in tariffs which is going to be quite difficult to do, we could see the cost of vehicles go up because a lot of parts come across the border, a car company might decide, I'm not going to sell that vehicle that I make in Mexico in the U.S., eliminating a choice for a consumer.

如果特朗普總統(tǒng)真的要施加懲罰性關(guān)稅——當(dāng)然這比較難以施行——汽車價(jià)格將會(huì)上漲。因?yàn)楹芏嗥嚵闩浼窃诤Ｍ馍a(chǎn)的。車企可能會(huì)決定不再把墨西哥制造的汽車賣回美國(guó)，這會(huì)減少美國(guó)消費(fèi)者的選擇。

Fiat-Chrysler found a clever way to preempt a Trump tweet attack.On the eve of the Auto Show here in Detroit, a city whose fortunes rise and fall with those of the car industry, Fiat-Chrysler announced 1 billion dollars in new investment and 2,000 new U.S.jobs, cleverly timed to placate Mr.Trump.The president-elect responded with a celebratory tweet.But CEO Sergio Marchionne says the industry still needs much more clarity.

菲亞特-克萊斯勒找到了一個(gè)聰明的辦法來(lái)躲避特朗普的“推文風(fēng)暴”。就在底特律車展的前夜，這座城市的命運(yùn)起伏都和汽車業(yè)休戚相關(guān)，菲亞特-克萊斯勒宣布將在美國(guó)投資10億美元建廠，新增2000個(gè)工作崗位。這家公司掐準(zhǔn)時(shí)間公布這一計(jì)劃，以博得特朗普歡心。這位當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)果然發(fā)了一條贊賞口吻的帖子以示回應(yīng)。但菲亞特-克萊斯勒CEO Sergio Marconi仍然表示，汽車業(yè)需要更多政策確定性。

美國(guó)總統(tǒng)特朗普于2017年1月會(huì)見(jiàn)了菲亞特-克萊斯勒CEO Sergio Marchionne（右二）等人。

菲亞特-克萊斯勒CEO Sergio Marchionne：

I think it would be unwise that tariffs would be imposed on Mexico production without two things.One, without a very clear recognition of a grandfathering system that says anything that has been invested before this next date needs to be protected, because the downside of that choice is a substantial economic damage to the organizations that have done investments there.

如果缺少以下兩個(gè)前提的話，向墨西哥生產(chǎn)的汽車征收關(guān)稅將會(huì)是不明智的。第一是要明確一個(gè)日期，在此日期之前在墨西哥所做的投資應(yīng)當(dāng)受到保護(hù)，否則對(duì)在墨西哥投資建廠的企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，這個(gè)決定意味著巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。

The other one, as a minimum, is a phase-out program where effectively you introduce tariffs over a period of time to disincentivize Mexican production.But both of these things require a runway that's long enough to allow for the reversal of the delocalization exercise to be carried out.You don't impose them overnight.

第二是起碼要設(shè)置一個(gè)過(guò)渡期，就是說(shuō)在一個(gè)時(shí)間段里逐漸加征關(guān)稅，好讓車企逐漸減少在墨西哥的投資興趣。這兩樣事情都需要足夠長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間，來(lái)讓造車廠重新回到美國(guó)本土。這不是一夜之間就能發(fā)生的事情。

But privately, many of the world's biggest carmakers seem to be adjusting to the new normal, a world where years of investment planning can be undone by a sudden tweet.They are persuading themselves that no matter what Mr.Trump does, his promised act swiftly to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement and impose tariffs on Mexican production, they will still be able to adjust to it.

但私底下，許多大型汽車制造商都已經(jīng)開(kāi)始努力適應(yīng)一種“新常態(tài)”。這種“新常態(tài)”下，他們多年的投資計(jì)劃可能因?yàn)橐粭l推文就統(tǒng)統(tǒng)作廢。他們說(shuō)服自己，無(wú)論特朗普做什么——比如他許諾的重新協(xié)商北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定，再比如他要向墨西哥產(chǎn)汽車增加關(guān)稅——他們都有能力一一應(yīng)對(duì)。

雷諾-日產(chǎn)-三菱CEO Carlos Ghosn

雷諾-日產(chǎn)-三菱CEO Carlos Ghosn認(rèn)為：

For the moment I think the only thing we can do is wait to see what are going to be these policies, what are going to be the decisions and in function of this adapt our strategy if necessary.I don't think there is a reason...（There is） No reason to adjust anything for the moment.

眼下我們唯一能做的事情就是等待，看看政策到底會(huì)是什么樣的，然后如果需要的話調(diào)整我們的策略來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)。我認(rèn)為目前還不需要做出什么調(diào)整。

Carmakers understand that the new president has a political base to satisfy, a base that wants more American jobs.And they are rapidly thinking of ways to help him reach that goal.

汽車制造商們明白，新任總統(tǒng)需要讓選民們滿意，而選民希望看見(jiàn)美國(guó)提供更多的工作崗位。他們也在迅速行動(dòng)，來(lái)幫助他達(dá)到這個(gè)目標(biāo)。

For the world's automakers, politics is always a factor, no matter where they do business.And they're ready to do what they can to help Mr.Trump satisfy his voters, many of whom are their own auto workers.

對(duì)全球的汽車制造商而言，政治永遠(yuǎn)是一個(gè)影響因素。不論他們?cè)谀睦镒錾猓麄儨?zhǔn)備各盡所能，來(lái)幫助特朗普迎合他的選民。而這些選民中，很多就是他們旗下車廠的工人。

福特汽車工人、特朗普支持者Brian Pannebecker：

Even though the labor costs might be slightly higher, businesses are going to see a savings in the reduced corporate tax rate and the reduction in regulations.It's going to allow a lower-cost product and I think it's going to balance out.So I think all in all it's going to be great, everything Donald Trump has suggested and intends to do is going to be positive for the auto industry and manufacturing industry in general.

雖然美國(guó)的勞動(dòng)力成本稍稍高一些，但車廠在這里可以享受更低的企業(yè)稅和更寬松的監(jiān)管。這可以幫助它們節(jié)省成本，抵消勞動(dòng)成本的增加。所以整體而言，效果會(huì)非常好。特朗普想做的一切都將有利于美國(guó)汽車業(yè)，也會(huì)有利于美國(guó)制造業(yè)整體。

These are the people who helped put Mr.Trump in office against all the odds and they're counting on him to make the American auto industry great again.The world's carmakers won't want to get on the wrong side of America's new president on this one.

正是這樣一些選民打破各種政治預(yù)期，將特朗普送入白宮。他們也指望他來(lái)讓美國(guó)汽車業(yè)重振雄風(fēng)。全世界的汽車制造商都不希望在這件事上站在這位美國(guó)新任總統(tǒng)的對(duì)立面上。

詞匯總結(jié)

tiptoe['t?pt??]

v.踮著腳尖走

Here at the Detroit Auto Show, car makers are tiptoeing through a minefield.

在底特律車展上，參展商都在小心翼翼地繞過(guò)雷區(qū)。

caved in to 妥協(xié)于，屈服于

Some like Ford have already caved in to the pressure and cancelled Mexican factories.

一些車企已經(jīng)在壓力下妥協(xié)，例如福特已經(jīng)取消了在墨西哥建立工廠的計(jì)劃。

torpedo[t??'pi?d??]

v.破壞

n.魚(yú)雷

These attacks are seen as an effort to torpedo the talks.

人們認(rèn)為這些襲擊是為了故意破壞會(huì)談。

on pins and needles 膽戰(zhàn)心驚，坐立不安，如坐針氈

Many famous actors are on pins and needles before the curtain opens for a play.

在帷幕拉開(kāi)前，許多著名的演員感到坐立不安。

placate['pleket]

v.安撫，撫慰，使平靜

He smiled, trying to placate me.

他微笑著，想要安撫我。

phase-out 過(guò)渡期，逐步淘汰計(jì)劃

The other one, as a minimum, is a phase-out program where effectively you introduce tariffs over a period of time to disincentivize Mexican production.

第二是起碼要設(shè)置一個(gè)過(guò)渡期，就是說(shuō)在一個(gè)時(shí)間段里逐漸加征關(guān)稅，好讓車企逐漸減少在墨西哥的投資興趣。

balance out 相抵，平衡；抵消

Outgoings and revenues balanced out.

收支相抵。

count on 指望，期待

The government thought it could count on the support of the trades unions.

政府認(rèn)為可以指望獲得工會(huì)的支持。