研究人員表示，有一種方式可以使未來的干旱減少沖突

研究人員表示，有一種方式可以使未來的干旱減少沖突

It's often assumed that as climate change worsens, so too will the world's risk of violent armed conflict. Over the years, many experts have warned that as weather becomes more extreme and crop yields shrink, we could begin fighting for resources and land with greater frequency and ferocity.

人們通常認為，隨著氣候變化加劇，世界發(fā)生暴力武裝沖突的風險也會加大。多年來，許多專家警告說，隨著天氣變得更加極端，農作物產量下降，我們可能會開始更頻繁、更激烈地爭奪資源和土地。

Still, there are those who disagree. A new paper now argues the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict is more complex than we often think, especially since humans can change their strategies based on pros and cons.

盡管如此，還是有人持反對意見。一篇新的論文認為，氣候變化和武裝沖突之間的關系比我們通常認為的要復雜得多，特別是因為人類可以根據利弊來改變自己的戰(zhàn)略。

To test these assumptions, Muller-Itten and her colleagues used an opportunity cost model created in 2009 to look at the foundations of the idea that a drier future means more conflict.

為了驗證這些假設，Muller-Itten和她的同事使用了一個2009年建立的機會成本模型，來研究一個更干燥的未來意味著更多沖突的觀點的基礎。

It's important to note that the authors make clear this should not be considered a tool for "quantitative projections" - or predictions - in any specific context. Instead, the paper is trying to investigate the benefits and risks of conflict over water.

值得注意的是，作者明確表示，在任何特定情況下，這都不應被視為“定量預測”或預測的工具。相反，這篇論文試圖調查水資源沖突的好處和風險。

Considering two groups of farmers who might fight for control over limited land and resources, the authors tested what would happen under various rainfall scenarios.

考慮到兩組可能爭奪有限土地和資源的農民，作者測試了在不同降雨情景下會發(fā)生什么。

While the findings certainly suggest that droughts can lead to human conflict, there was no support for the idea that these conflicts will always arise along with water scarcity.

雖然研究結果肯定表明干旱會導致人類沖突，但沒有證據表明這些沖突會隨著缺水而出現。

During anomalous years of low rainfall, the model predicted an increase in conflict. But when there was a systematic decrease in water availability, the model actually predicted a decrease in armed violence.

在降雨量少的反常年份，該模型預測沖突會增加。但當水供應系統(tǒng)出現下降時，該模型實際上預測了武裝暴力的減少。

In other words, climate change may come to define a new normal that we adjust to as rational agents. Farmers, for instance, may see the opportunity cost of attack as too high if another bad year of rainfall is expected.

換句話說，氣候變化可能會定義一個新的常態(tài)，我們作為理性的行動者來適應它。例如，農民可能會認為，如果下一個糟糕的降雨年即將到來，襲擊的機會成本就太高了。

The authors emphasise that this is a "strong simplification of reality", but their results do suggest a more complicated reality than the linear relationship we assume exists between drought and conflict.

作者強調，這是“對現實的強烈簡化”，但他們的研究結果確實表明，現實比我們假設的干旱與沖突之間存在的線性關系更為復雜。

If precipitation becomes more variable, as climate models predict, conflicts will not necessarily become more frequent, the team concludes.

研究小組得出結論:“如果降水像氣候模型預測的那樣變得更加多變，那么沖突不一定會變得更加頻繁。”

Rather, conflict likelihood can go either up or down, as agents adapt and adjust their response to the new income distribution.

“相反，隨著代理人適應和調整他們對新收入分配的反應，沖突的可能性可能上升或下降。”

The research itself is narrow in scope and doesn't account for all the impacts drought can have on human conflict.

這項研究本身的范圍很窄，并沒有考慮到干旱對人類沖突的所有影響。

In fact, a different study published in Environmental Research Letters this week indicates there are "robust correlations" between seasonal climate and violent crime in the US, and the country can expect up to 3.2 million additional violent crimes between 2020 and 2099, depending on whether we manage to curb our greenhouse gas emissions.

事實上,不同的研究發(fā)表在《環(huán)境研究快報》本周表示之間有相關性的季節(jié)性氣候和暴力犯罪在美國,和國家可以預期320萬額外的暴力犯罪在2020年至2099年之間,這取決于我們設法遏制溫室氣體的排放。

What's clear is that findings such as these indicate we truly live in a changing world. As global temperatures and tensions continue to heat up, the more we can predict our future, the better.

很明顯，這樣的發(fā)現表明我們確實生活在一個不斷變化的世界。隨著全球氣溫和緊張局勢持續(xù)升溫，我們對未來的預測越多越好。

The study was published in PNAS.

這項研究發(fā)表在《美國國家科學院院刊》上。