FT社評：汽車業(yè)加速邁進(jìn)電動車時(shí)代

Scantily clad women are already something of an anachronism in the vast hangars of the Frankfurt Motor Show. But anyone hankering after old-style petrolhead culture would have had greater cause for nostalgia at this year’s industry gathering. Some of the cars on display had no steering wheel. A considerably larger number had no traditional engine — a sign of the arms race under way as carmakers rush to develop autonomous and electric vehicles.

在法蘭克福車展的巨大展廳里，衣著暴露的車模已顯得有些過時(shí)。而今年車展更會觸動老式汽油車擁躉們的懷舊情懷。一些展出的車型不見了方向盤。更多的展車沒有了傳統(tǒng)發(fā)動機(jī)——這預(yù)示著隨著汽車制造商們競相開發(fā)自動駕駛汽車和電動汽車，一場“軍備競賽”已上演。

The speed of the shift is remarkable. Just a couple of years ago, the biggest carmakers were talking about electrification, but would typically have just one or two models on the stands. Now Renault-Nissan is set to produce 12 all-electric cars; Mercedes will offer electrified versions of all its cars by 2022. VW, the world’s biggest carmaker, says it will build 50 all-electric models by 2025 and electrify 300 models by 2030.

這一轉(zhuǎn)變速度驚人。就在幾年前，那些汽車制造巨頭雖已開始談?wù)撾姎饣?，但一般只會推出一兩個車型。如今，雷諾-日產(chǎn)(Renault-Nissan)計(jì)劃生產(chǎn)12款純電動車;梅賽德斯(Mercedes)將在2022年前推出旗下全系車型的電動版本。全球最大的汽車制造商大眾(VW)表示，會在2025年前推出50款純電動車型，并在2030年前實(shí)現(xiàn)旗下300款車型的電動化。

There is a real sense that the industry is nearing an inflection point. This is partly due to advances in battery technology and changing public perceptions: electric cars are becoming desirable. But it is driven by policy. European regulators were previously content to set environmental standards and let manufacturers decide how to meet them. Since the emissions cheating scandal, they are quite reasonably inclined to be more prescriptive.

這讓人們真的感到汽車業(yè)正瀕臨一個拐點(diǎn)。在一定程度上這是由電池技術(shù)的進(jìn)步及公眾觀念的轉(zhuǎn)變帶來的：對電動汽車的需求正在增加。但真正的推動力量是政策。歐洲的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)以往安于制定環(huán)境標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，讓制造商們決定如何達(dá)標(biāo)。自從爆出了排放欺詐丑聞，他們理所當(dāng)然會加強(qiáng)規(guī)范。

The UK and France propose phasing out new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040. City mayors are able to act much faster: Paris, Stuttgart and Madrid are among those that will ban diesel vehicles by 2025. This is prompting a rapid change in consumer behaviour: few people will risk buying a car that may be of limited use within a decade. Chinese authorities are now considering whether to impose similar restrictions: if they do, there will probably be a long period in which hybrid vehicles outnumber all-electric models, but there will be little future for petrol and diesel in either Asian or European markets.

英國和法國提出在2040年前逐步停售汽油和柴油汽車。市長們的行動要快得多：巴黎、斯圖加特和馬德里等城市將在2025年前禁止柴油汽車。這正促使消費(fèi)者們的行為發(fā)生一個迅速的轉(zhuǎn)變：很少有人會冒險(xiǎn)買一輛在十年之內(nèi)使用有可能受限的車。中國當(dāng)局正在考慮是否實(shí)施類似的限制：如果他們也出臺了限制措施，可能很長一段時(shí)間內(nèi)混合動力汽車的數(shù)量仍會比純電動車型多，但無論是亞洲還是歐洲市場，汽油和柴油汽車都幾乎不再有未來可言。

Such a radical change brings challenges, ranging from the need to set up charging infrastructure, to the problems of managing new demands on power grids. And electric cars will of course only be as clean as the source from which electricity is generated. For car industry executives, though, there is a more pressing question: can they continue to make money?

這一巨變帶來了不少挑戰(zhàn)，從需要設(shè)立充電基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，到管理對電力系統(tǒng)的新需求等問題。此外，電動汽車的清潔程度當(dāng)然完全取決于電力的來源。然而，對汽車行業(yè)的高管們來說，有一個更加迫切的問題：他們還能不能繼續(xù)賺錢?

Carmakers’ margins are already stretched. The switch to electric vehicles will erode profitability further, since they will, at least initially, face higher component costs and lower sales volumes, while investing large sums in research and development.

汽車制造商們的利潤已經(jīng)非常薄。轉(zhuǎn)向生產(chǎn)電動汽車將進(jìn)一步削弱其盈利能力，因?yàn)樗麄儗?mdash;—至少在最初階段——面臨較高的零部件成本和較低的銷量，同時(shí)又要在研發(fā)上投入大量資金。

This should change over time as battery costs come down — even if the improvement is not as startling as it has proved to be for renewable energy. The bigger challenge is that electric vehicles could fundamentally change carmakers’ business model. At present, the manufacturers control design, branding and the most important aspects of production. In future, up to 50 per cent of the value of the car could lie in electrical systems and electronics, rather than mechanical systems.

隨著電池成本的降低，這一點(diǎn)應(yīng)該會逐漸好轉(zhuǎn)——即使這種改進(jìn)并不如可再生資源那樣顯著。更大的挑戰(zhàn)是電動汽車可能從根本上改變汽車制造商的商業(yè)模式。目前，制造商們控制著設(shè)計(jì)、品牌以及生產(chǎn)中最重要的方方面面。未來，汽車價(jià)值的50%可能在于電力系統(tǒng)和電子設(shè)備，而不是機(jī)械系統(tǒng)。

This is a huge opportunity for suppliers such as Delphi, which hopes to sell millions of the small electric motors used in hybrid vehicles; and for consumer electronics companies that can supply the software services required.

對于像德爾福(Delphi)這樣的供應(yīng)商來說，這是一個巨大的機(jī)遇。德爾福希望賣出數(shù)百萬臺用于混合動力汽車的小型電動機(jī)。此外，那些能夠提供必要軟件服務(wù)的消費(fèi)電子企業(yè)也同樣面臨機(jī)遇。

If carmakers suffer from the transition, they deserve limited sympathy, given the industry-wide failings that led to the clampdown on diesel. But this disruption could also carry a cost to society, if it both cuts the overall number of jobs available and requires very different skills of employees. This transition may happen faster than anyone has been expecting. Policymakers must be alert and ready to respond.

如果這一轉(zhuǎn)變讓汽車制造商們叫苦，那鑒于這個行業(yè)普遍存在的缺陷導(dǎo)致了對柴油的禁止，他們也不值得太多同情。但這一巨變也會讓社會付出代價(jià)——倘若它一方面減少了總的就業(yè)機(jī)會，另一方面又需要員工掌握截然不同的技能。這一轉(zhuǎn)變的發(fā)生可能會比任何人預(yù)想得都快。政策制定者們必須嚴(yán)陣以待，隨機(jī)應(yīng)變。