英語(yǔ)美文:總結(jié)創(chuàng)業(yè)者們的十大迷思中英雙語(yǔ)

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Since I've started my new career as a venture capitalist I have become keenly aware of some of the classic mistakes that geeks make when trying to raise money for a new business. Instead of writing the same comments over and over again I thought I'd try to summarize some of the mistakes that people -- especially smart people -- make when they decide to try to turn their bright ideas into money. Here then is my top-ten list of geek business myths:

Myth #1: A brilliant idea will make you rich.

Reality: A brilliant idea is neither necessary nor sufficient for a successful business, although all else being equal it can't hurt. Microsoft is probably the canonical example of a successful business, and it has never had a single brilliant idea in its entire history. (To the contrary, Microsoft has achieved success largely by seeking out and destroying other people's brilliant ideas.) Google was based on a couple of brilliant ideas (Page rank, text-only ads, massive parallel implementation on cheap hardware) but none of those ideas were original with Larry or Sergey. This is not to say that Larry, Sergey and Bill are not bright guys -- all three of them are sharper than I can ever hope to be. But the idea that any of them woke up one day with an inspiration and coasted the rest of the way to riches is a myth.

Myth #2: If you build it they will come.

There is a grain of truth to this myth. There have been examples of businesses that just built a product, cast it upon the ether(net), and achieved success. (Google is the canonical example.) But for every Google there are ten examples of companies that had killer products that didn't sell for one reason or another. My favorite example of this is the first company I tried to start back in 1993. It was called FlowNet, and it was a new design for a high speed local area network. It ran at 500Mb/s in a time when 10 Mb/s ethernet was the norm. For more than five years, FlowNet had the best price/performance ratio of any available network. On top of that, FlowNet had built-in quality-of-service guarantees for streaming video. If FlowNet had taken over the world your streaming video would be working a lot better today than it does.

But despite the fact that on a technical level FlowNet blew everything else out of the water it was an abysmal failure as a business. We never sold a single unit. The full story of why FlowNet failed would take me far afield, but if I had to sum it up in a nutshell the reason it didn't sell was very simple: it wasn't Ethernet. And if we'd done our homework and market research we could have known that this would be, if not a show-stopper at least a significant obstacle. And we would have known it before we spent tens of thousands of dollars of our own money on patent attorneys and prototypes.

Myth #3: Someone will steal your idea if you don't protect it.

Reality: No one gives a damn about your idea until you actually succeed and by then it's too late. Even on the off chance that you do manage to stumble across someone who is as excited about your idea as you are, if they have any brains they will join you rather than try to beat you. (And if they don't have any brains then it doesn't matter what they do.)

Patent protection does serve one useful purpose: it can make investors feel warm and fuzzy, especially naive investors. But I strongly recommend that you do your own patent filings. It's not hard to do once you learn how (get the Nolo Press book "Patent it Yourself"). You'll do a better job than most patent attorneys and save yourself a lot of money.

Myth #4: What you think matters.

Reality: It matters not one whit that you and all your buddies think that your idea is the greatest thing since sliced pizza (unless, of course, your buddies are rich enough to be the customer base for your business). What matters is what your customers think. It is natural to assume that if you and your buddies think your idea is cool that millions of other people out there will think it's cool too, and sometimes it works out that way, but usually not. The reason is that if you are smart enough to have a brilliant idea then you (and most likely your buddies) are different from everyone else. I don't mean to sound condescending here, but the sad fact of the matter is that compared to you, most people are pretty dumb (look at how many people vote Republican ;-) and they care about dumb things. (I just heard about a new clothing store in Pasadena that has lines around the block. A clothing store!) If you cater only to people who care about the things that you care about then your customer base will be pretty small.

Myth #5: Financial models are bogus.

As with myth #2 there is a grain of truth here. As Carl Sagan was fond of saying, prophecy is a lost art. There is no way to know for sure how much money your business is going to make, or how much it will cost to get to market. The reason for doing financial models is to do a reality check and convince yourself that making a return on investment is even a plausible possibility. If you run the numbers and find out that in order to reach break-even you need a customer base that is ten times larger than the currently known market for your product then you should probably rethink things. As Dwight Eisenhower said: plans are useless, but planning is indispensible.

This myth is the basis for one of the most classic mistakes that geeks make when pitching their ideas. They will say things like "Even if we only capture 1% of the market we'll make big bucks." Statements like that are a dead giveaway that you haven't done your homework to find out what your customers actually want. You may as well say: there's a good chance that only 1 customer in 100 will buy our product (and frankly, we're not even sure about that). Doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

Myth #6: What you know matters more than who you know.

Reality: You've been in denial about this your whole life. You were either brought up to believe that being smart mattered, or you just didn't believe your mother when she told you that getting along with the other kids was more important than getting straight A's.

The truth is, who you know matters more than what you know. This is not to say that being smart and knowledgable is useless. Knowing "what" is often an effective means of getting introduced to the right "whos". But ultimately, the people you know and trust (and more importantly who trust you) matter more than the factual knowledge you may have at your immediate disposal. And there is a sound reason for this: business decisions are horrifically complicated. No one person can possibly amass all the knowledge and experience required to make a broad range of such decisions on their own, so effective business people delegate much of their decision-making to other people. And when they choose who to delegate to, their first pick is always people they know and trust.

Myth #7: A Ph.D. means something.

Reality: The only thing a Ph.D. means is that you're not a moron, and you're willing to put up with the bullshit it takes to slog your way through a Ph.D. program somewhere. Empirically, having a Ph.D. is negatively correlated with business success. This is because the reward structure in academia is almost the exact opposite of what it is in business. In academia, what your peers think matters. In business, it's what your customers think that matters, and your customers are (almost certainly) not your peers.

Myth #8: I need $5 million to start my business

Reality: Unless you're building hardware (in which case you should definitely rethink what you're doing) you most likely don't need any startup capital at all. Paul Graham has written extensively about this so I won't belabor it too much, except to say this: you don't need much startup capital, but what you do need is a willingness to work your buns off. You have to bring your brilliant idea to fruition yourself; no one else will do it for you, and no one will give you the money to hire someone to do it for you. The reason is very simple: if you don't believe in the commercial potential of your idea enough to give up your evenings and weekends to own a bigger chunk of it, why should anyone else believe in it enough to put their hard-earned money at risk?

Myth #9: The idea is the most important part of my business plan.

Reality: The idea is very nearly irrelevant. What matters is 1) who are your customers? 2) Why will they buy what you're selling? (Note that the reason for this could very well be something like, "Because I'm famous and I have a huge fan base and they will buy sacks of stale dog shit if it has my name on it." But in your case it will more likely be, "Because we have a great product that blows the competition out of the water.") 3) Who is on your team? and 4) What are the risks?

Myth #10: Having no competition is a good thing.

Reality: If you have no competition the most likely reason for that is that there's no money to be made. There are six billion people on this planet, and it's very unlikely that every last of them will have left a lucrative market niche completely unexploited.

The good news is that it is very likely that your competition sucks. The vast majority of businesses are not run very well. They make shoddy products. They treat their customers and their employees like shit. It's not hard to find market opportunities where you can go in and kick the competition's ass. You don't want no competition, what you want is bad competition. And there's plenty of that out there.

 

我最近成了一名風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資人，所以經(jīng)常可以遇到一些創(chuàng)業(yè)者在創(chuàng)業(yè)時(shí)常犯的錯(cuò)誤。為了避免一遍又一遍的重復(fù)說(shuō)教，我想把這些錯(cuò)誤在這里做一個(gè)總結(jié)：

迷思一：一個(gè)好想法就可以讓你賺大錢(qián)

事實(shí)是好想法對(duì)于商業(yè)成功既不是充分條件也不是必要條件。微軟應(yīng)該算是獲得商業(yè)成功的典型，但是在它的整個(gè)發(fā)家史上卻找不到一個(gè)完全獨(dú)創(chuàng)的“好想法”。事實(shí)上微軟正式通過(guò)模仿對(duì)手的想法并在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中打敗對(duì)手而一步步發(fā)展壯大的。Google確實(shí)有一些獨(dú)創(chuàng)的，像Page Rank，Ad-words，廉價(jià)機(jī)器集群等。但是這些沒(méi)有一個(gè)是由Larry和Sergey想出來(lái)的。這并不是說(shuō)Larry、Sergey和Bill不夠聰明，實(shí)際上他們?nèi)齻€(gè)比任何人都要犀利。但如果你認(rèn)為他們只是有一天突然有了一個(gè)靈感接著就發(fā)財(cái)了，那只能說(shuō)你是癡人說(shuō)夢(mèng)。

迷思二：東西做出來(lái)自然會(huì)有人用

有時(shí)候事實(shí)確實(shí)如此。Google就是個(gè)好例子。但是像Google這樣的公司只是鳳毛麟角，更多的公司生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品因?yàn)檫@樣或者那樣的原因賣(mài)不出去。我自己就有這樣的慘痛經(jīng)歷。那是我在1993年創(chuàng)建的第一家公司，名字叫FlowNet。它同時(shí)也是一種新的高速局域網(wǎng)通訊設(shè)備的名字。10M的傳輸速度是當(dāng)時(shí)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，但FlowNet提供高達(dá)500M的傳輸速度。在后來(lái)的五年中FlowNet一直都是擁有最佳性?xún)r(jià)比的網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)備。它甚至提供了一個(gè)內(nèi)建的可保證畫(huà)面質(zhì)量的視頻流媒體服務(wù)。如果FlowNet能夠得以流行全世界，今天的視頻流媒體將比現(xiàn)在的狀況要好得多。

但是盡管FlowNet在技術(shù)層面上可以打敗任何競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者，它卻在商業(yè)上遭受了巨大的失敗。我們連一塊也沒(méi)有賣(mài)出去。原因很簡(jiǎn)單：它與局域網(wǎng)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)不兼容。如果當(dāng)時(shí)我們做足功課，做些市場(chǎng)調(diào)查，我們就會(huì)知道兼容性即使不是致命的也將會(huì)是個(gè)大問(wèn)題。那樣我們就不會(huì)把自己數(shù)以萬(wàn)計(jì)的美元浪費(fèi)在專(zhuān)利申請(qǐng)和樣片生產(chǎn)上了。

迷思三：如果你不申請(qǐng)專(zhuān)利，別人會(huì)偷走你的想法

事實(shí)上沒(méi)有人會(huì)對(duì)你的想法有興趣，除非你的想法被證明是成功的，但那時(shí)對(duì)于偷學(xué)者為時(shí)已晚。即是說(shuō)真的有人對(duì)你的想法非常認(rèn)同，但是他聰明的話(huà)自然會(huì)選擇跟你合作，如果不是，他做什么都是威脅不到你的。

有時(shí)候?qū)＠€是有點(diǎn)用的：它會(huì)讓投資人感覺(jué)很保險(xiǎn)。但我強(qiáng)烈建議你自己來(lái)處理專(zhuān)利申請(qǐng)，通過(guò)一些學(xué)習(xí)你可以做得比專(zhuān)利申請(qǐng)代理商做得更好，而且可以節(jié)省一大筆錢(qián)。

迷思四：你的看法很重要

事實(shí)上你和你的合伙人對(duì)你們產(chǎn)品的看法沒(méi)有任何意義，重要的是客戶(hù)會(huì)怎么看待你們的產(chǎn)品。我們很自然的會(huì)假設(shè)，如果你和你的伙計(jì)們都認(rèn)為你們的產(chǎn)品很好，那么其他成千上萬(wàn)的人們也會(huì)這樣認(rèn)為，事情有的時(shí)候是這樣，但大多數(shù)的時(shí)候不是。原因是你是如此的聰明可以設(shè)計(jì)出這么好的產(chǎn)品，那么你跟那些產(chǎn)品的使用者是不一樣的。相對(duì)于你，你的客戶(hù)們要更為平庸一些，他們的口味也會(huì)更為平庸一些。如果你的產(chǎn)品是為了迎合那些會(huì)在乎你自己在乎的那些東西的人的話(huà)，你的用戶(hù)群將會(huì)非常小。

迷思五：盈利模式都是假的

就像迷思二一樣，有時(shí)候這也是事實(shí)。像Carl Sagan常說(shuō)的“預(yù)言是失敗的藝術(shù)”。你永遠(yuǎn)也無(wú)法知道你的生意會(huì)賺多少錢(qián)，也無(wú)法知道要花多少錢(qián)去占領(lǐng)市場(chǎng)。需要盈利模式的理由是讓你自己做一個(gè)全面的思考，并讓自己確信投資將會(huì)得到回報(bào)。如果你經(jīng)過(guò)計(jì)算發(fā)現(xiàn)，即使只是要保持不虧損你的用戶(hù)群也必須比現(xiàn)在的市場(chǎng)大十倍，那么你也許就需要重新考慮了。就像艾森豪威爾說(shuō)的，計(jì)劃一無(wú)是處，但作計(jì)劃卻不可或缺。

以此為基礎(chǔ)，很多創(chuàng)業(yè)者們都會(huì)犯一個(gè)典型的錯(cuò)誤。他們常這樣說(shuō)“只要我們占有哪怕是1%的市場(chǎng)份額，我們也會(huì)賺大錢(qián)”。這樣的說(shuō)法直接暴露出你沒(méi)有仔細(xì)的分析過(guò)用戶(hù)的需求。你也許同樣會(huì)說(shuō)“100個(gè)客戶(hù)中至少會(huì)有一個(gè)客戶(hù)買(mǎi)我們的東西吧（或者坦白地說(shuō)，這一點(diǎn)也不能肯定）”。這樣想根本無(wú)法增強(qiáng)自信心。

迷思六：懂得的知識(shí)比認(rèn)識(shí)的人重要

你一直都拒絕否認(rèn)這一點(diǎn)。從小到大，你都相信聰明比什么都重要，你也不會(huì)相信媽媽所說(shuō)的“學(xué)會(huì)與他人相處比學(xué)習(xí)成績(jī)更重要”。

事實(shí)是-人際關(guān)系比知識(shí)要來(lái)的重要。這并不是說(shuō)聰明、有學(xué)問(wèn)沒(méi)有用。你的學(xué)識(shí)一定程度上決定了你會(huì)被推薦給“誰(shuí)”。但最終，你認(rèn)識(shí)并信任，更重要的是信任你，的人會(huì)比你的學(xué)識(shí)對(duì)你的前程有更大的決定性作用。商業(yè)活動(dòng)是異常復(fù)雜的。沒(méi)有任何一個(gè)人有可能具有完成一個(gè)商業(yè)決定所需要的所有知識(shí)和經(jīng)驗(yàn)，所以精明的人們會(huì)把他們的權(quán)力下放給其他人。而當(dāng)他們選擇下放的對(duì)象是，首先想到的就是他們認(rèn)識(shí)并信任的人。

迷思七：博士頭銜很有用

實(shí)際上擁有博士頭銜只能證明你不是低能兒。從我的經(jīng)驗(yàn)看來(lái)，擁有博士頭銜只會(huì)對(duì)獲得商業(yè)成功產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。因?yàn)樵趯W(xué)業(yè)上獲得成功的方式與在商業(yè)上獲得成功的方式恰好相反。在學(xué)業(yè)上，你的同僚決定你的成功，在商業(yè)上，你的顧客決定你的成功，而你的顧客，基本上可以肯定的說(shuō)，不會(huì)是你的同僚。

迷思八：我需要500萬(wàn)作為啟動(dòng)資金

事實(shí)上除非你是做硬件的，否則你根本就不需要任何的啟動(dòng)資金。Paul Graham 說(shuō)過(guò)很多關(guān)于這方面的內(nèi)容，我就不展開(kāi)了，之說(shuō)幾句：你不需要啟動(dòng)資金，但你必須愿意自己做。你必須自己實(shí)現(xiàn)自己的想法，沒(méi)有人會(huì)為你去做，也沒(méi)有人會(huì)出錢(qián)雇人為你去做。原因很簡(jiǎn)單：如果你都不愿意為你想法的商業(yè)潛能而放棄你的休息時(shí)間，為什么別人要用他們辛苦賺來(lái)的錢(qián)為此冒險(xiǎn)。

迷思九：有好的想法是我的計(jì)劃中最重要的部分

事實(shí)上好想法基本上沒(méi)有任何意義，重要的是：“誰(shuí)是你的顧客？” ；“他們?yōu)槭裁匆I(mǎi)你的產(chǎn)品?” ；“你的團(tuán)隊(duì)有些什么人？”；“有哪些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)？”。

迷思十：沒(méi)有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手再好不過(guò)

如果你所處的行業(yè)沒(méi)有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，最有可能的理由是，它根本就不能賺錢(qián)。這個(gè)世界上有60億人口，幾乎完全沒(méi)有可能還存在一個(gè)沒(méi)有任何人發(fā)覺(jué)的有利可圖的市場(chǎng)。

最好的消息莫過(guò)于你的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手都很菜。絕大部分的公司都運(yùn)作的不是特別好。他們制作贗品、欺騙顧客、他們的員工都很傻冒。你總是可以很容易的找到市場(chǎng)機(jī)會(huì)，進(jìn)入，然后打敗競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者。你并不想要沒(méi)有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，你想要的是差的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，放心，他們多得是。