華爾街的賺錢經(jīng) 第21期:美國(guó)買房正當(dāng)時(shí)(1)

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The Current Situation ofBuying a House in the US

美國(guó)買房正當(dāng)時(shí)

If you can borrow at 4.5% or 5% over 30 years, many purchases start to look appealing. Especially if we get a hefty dose of inflation down the line.

如果你能以4.5%或5%的利率獲得30年的貸款的話，那么，許多購(gòu)房計(jì)劃看上去立刻就有了吸引力。如果接下來(lái)會(huì)出現(xiàn)較高的通貨膨脹的話，就更是如此了。

If that happens, your monthly payments will be low and you'd get to repay the principal over time with devalued dollars. That's a double win.

如果發(fā)生這種情況，你的月度供款會(huì)較低，你可以在一定時(shí)間內(nèi)用貶值的美元逐漸償還掉本金。這真是兩全其美。

Inflation isn't guaranteed: The bond markets are only predicting about 1.4% inflation over the next 10 years, and BCA Research recently reminded clients that deflation, or falling prices, remains a danger. Unemployment is still rising and recent wages actually fell.

通貨膨脹不一定會(huì)發(fā)生：債券市場(chǎng)對(duì)未來(lái)10年的通貨膨脹率預(yù)期只有1.4%，而 BCA Research最近提醒客戶，通貨緊縮的危險(xiǎn)依然存在。失業(yè)率仍在上升，近期的工資水平實(shí)際在下降。

Yet if you had to bet from here, you'd bet on inflation in due course. The government is running massive deficits and has the printing presses at full throttle. That 's the classic recipe.

不過(guò)，如果你現(xiàn)在必須打個(gè)賭，你應(yīng)該預(yù)計(jì)到一定時(shí)候會(huì)發(fā)生通貨膨脹。政府現(xiàn)在有大量赤字，印鈔機(jī)正在全速運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。這是傳統(tǒng)的應(yīng)對(duì)方法。

When it comes to house prices, it's true they may not have fallen as far as you might expect.

至于說(shuō)房?jī)r(jià)，的確，它跌得可能不像你期待的那么多。

A recent analysis in the Financial Analysts Journal suggested prices nationwide still weren't cheap by historical standards in relation to household incomes.

Financial Analysts Journal最近的一個(gè)分析顯示，以房?jī)r(jià)與家庭收入比來(lái)衡量，與歷史水平相比，全美國(guó)范圍內(nèi)的房?jī)r(jià)仍不便宣。