在任何行業(yè)內,通過預測趨勢(spot trends)就可能掌握什么即將成為熱門(may be hot),從而指導產品研發(fā)和銷售的方向。有很多技術可以用來收集數據,這種有針對性的數據收集被稱作“數據挖掘”(data mining),在商界很盛行(take the business world by storm)。如何通過數據挖掘就能緊跟潮流(get on the bandwagon),參看如下內容:
收集信息(collect information)
要填充一個調查數據表(table of data)需要幾年內的數據。預測未來趨勢(future trend projection)不僅要參看目前的變化,還要結合長時間的數據庫(database)。總之,有關過去的信息掌握越多,了解未來的情況就越多。
⊙What have we learned from our fishing expeditions?我們通過摸底調查都獲得了哪些信息?
⊙This table highlights consumer trends over the last ten years.這個表格整體反映了最近十年來的消費走向。
⊙Here's a look at what the spending habits of our target customers have been over the last year.
看一下這兒,在過去一年里我們的目標客戶群體的消費習慣統計。
⊙Take a look at the numbers we've come up with.
看一下我們得出的數據。
⊙Take a look at the data we have coming out of the research.看一下我們通過調查得出的數據。
⊙Our projections should be accurate……they're based on twenty years worth of data.
我們的推測應當是準確的,它們建立在20年的數據之上。
分析數據
通過收集來的信息分析有意義的模式?,F代技術的使用將簡化你的工作(make this easier on yourself),通過對數據的算法(algorithms)來分析市場和銷售的變化,以及正在顯現的(currently rising)趨勢。
⊙We've determined a pattern in spending for this particular demographic.我們已經找到這個特殊消費群體的一種消費模式。
⊙Our target group has an established consumer behavior.我們的目標群體已經有了固定的消費習慣。
⊙This pattern of behavior is currently rising among our interest populations.這個行為模式正在我們的利益群體中增長。
⊙Current industry trends are……目前的行業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢是……
⊙What's hot and what's not?什么熱門?什么不熱門?
⊙It looks like it's going to be the year for……看上去……年即將到來。
⊙What are our customers doing now?That will tell us what they might be doing next.我們的消費者在做什么?那將告訴我們他們下一步將做什么。
⊙If we know which way this trend is going, we stand to earn a bundle.如果我們了解趨勢,就一定會大賺一筆。
將數據圖表化(graph data)
通過視覺圖形(visual graphing)更容易總結在一定時期內的變化。表格中可以包含你需要考慮的每種產品、每種表現和每種趨勢。通過表格,數據挖掘的結果一目了然(be clear at a glance)。
⊙This graph clearly shows the direction we should be heading.這個表格清晰地反映了我們應當走的方向。
⊙Take a look at the graph.It illustrates the trends we should be paying attention to.看一下這個表格,它說明了我們應當注意的趨勢。
判斷
將數據挖掘圖所顯示的趨勢變化,進一步評估可能延續(xù)(continuance)的走向,并撰寫報告來具體說明。在背景數據指導下,觀察變化細節(jié),總結若干可能,通過集思廣益的方式找出最佳可能性。
⊙While this might look like a rising trend among computer users, it is in fact a short term reaction to a local Internet glitch.
盡管表面上看這是電腦用戶出現增長,但事實上這是對當地互聯網故障的短期反應。
⊙The background on this explains why we don't have to take this data into consideration.
有關這個方面的背景情況解釋了我們?yōu)槭裁床槐乜紤]這個數據。
總結
誰能夠對市場的變化做到“先知先覺”,誰就能搶占先機,引領行業(yè)的發(fā)展。主觀臆斷和理性推測的區(qū)別就在于后者是建立在大量的調查數據基礎上。被挖掘的數據越多、越詳細,做出的趨勢判斷就越可靠。圖表的形式能更加清晰地體現趨勢變化。
Words 單詞表
accurate精確的,準確的
algorithm算法,計算程序
awhile一會兒,片刻
bandwagon風尚
demographic人口統計的
glitch故障
gravitation引力
guesstimate猜測,估量
highlight突出,強調
hot熱點
pattern模式,圖案
projection預測,推測
research研究,調查
spending支出,開銷,花費
spike尖頭
Phrases 短語表
based on基于,在……基礎上
come out of從……中得出
earn a bundle賺很多錢,大賺一筆
environmentally friendly環(huán)保的,對環(huán)境無害的
environmentally responsible符合環(huán)境標準,有利環(huán)境
fishing expedition試探性調查,摸底
get on the bandwagon趕時髦,跟潮流
go green綠色環(huán)保
going a direction 朝某個方向走
gravitation towards被……吸引
head a direction朝某個方向
market behavior市場行為,市場走勢
ought to be應該
purchasing pattern采購模式,采購樣式
take a look at檢查,看一下
target population目標人群,目標群體
實景對話1
A:So you've been able to determine a pattern in spending for this particular demographic?
B:Well, kind of. We have the data and I've run several algorithms on it, but it's a little hard to make sense of it all. One thing we do know, and we have known for some time is that our target group has an establishedconsumer behavior.We are just looking for changes in consumer behavior so we can stay on top of the market.
A:What are our customers doing now?That will tell us what they might be doing next.
B:Not necessarily……We've been able to track current trends, but it still takes some talent in guesstimating to know what future trends might be.
A:Take a look at the numbers we've come up with. What's this spike on the graph?It looks like an increase in purchase of computer support services over the last month. This tells us something about our target group.We can guess they are becoming more interested in technologically advanced products.This pattern of behavior is currently rising among our interest populations.
B:No. That's what I was saying about making informed conclusions……While this might look like a rising trend among computer users, it is in fact a short term reaction to a local Internet glitch.
A:那么你們已經總結出這些特別人群的消費模式了?
B:嗯,一些。我們有這些數據而且我對其反復運算,但是很難說明所有問題。
有一件事我們是知道的,而且有了一段時間,那就是我們的目標群體已經建立了消費習慣。我們正在尋找消費習慣的變化,這樣我們就能把握全局了。
A:我們的消費者現在都在做什么呢?那會告訴我們他們下一步可能做什么。
B:不見得……我們已經摸索到了市場的動向,但是還需要一些推測來知道未來的走向是什么。
A:看一下我們得到的數據,圖表中的這個尖頭是什么?看上去是上個月電腦輔助服務購買出現了增長。這就告訴我們一些有關目標群體的信息,我們可以猜測他們在高端科技產品上表現出了越來越強的興趣。這個消費模式正在我們的利益群體中增長。
B:不,那就是我所說的為什么要做一個有根據的總結的原因。盡管表面上看這是電腦用戶出現增長,但事實上這是對當地互聯網故障的短期反應。
實景對話2
A:So tell me……What's hot and what's not?
B:Take a look at the data we have coming out of the research. Based on our numbers, it looks like it's going to be the year for going green. We are looking at the purchasing patterns of our target populations.There's a gravitation towards increased spending on environmentally responsible products and services.The products we should be developing ought to be focused on this change in market behavior.
A:Are you sure your data is accurate?
B:Our projections should be accurate……they're based on twenty years worth of data. Current industry trends have been going this direction for awhile.We'd better get on the bandwagon and start marketing our products in a more environmentally friendly way.
A:Can I take a look?
B:Yeah. Here, this table highlights consumer trends over the last ten years.
And see, this graph clearly shows the direction we should be heading.
A:If we know which way this trend is going, we stand to earn a bundle.
A:那么告訴我,什么最熱門?什么不熱門?
B:看一下從調查中我們得出的數據。在這些數據看來環(huán)保年即將到來。我們觀察我們的目標群體的消費模式,他們在環(huán)保產品和服務的消費上出現了傾向性的增長。我們研發(fā)的產品應當注重這個市場走勢的變化。
A:你肯定你的數據都準確嗎?
B:我們的推測應當是準確的。它們建立在20年的數據之上。目前行業(yè)已經朝這個方向發(fā)展了一段時間。我們最好跟上潮流并且開始讓我們的產品更加環(huán)保。
A:我能看一下嗎?
B:行,給你。這份表格集中反映了最近十年來的消費趨勢??矗@個圖標清晰地顯示了我們應當朝那個方向走。
A:如果我們了解趨勢,就一定會大賺一筆。