VOA慢速英語:能源專家把油價上漲歸咎于伊拉克動蕩

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Iraq belongs to the Organization of the PetroleumExporting Countries, better known as OPEC. In fact,Iraq is OPEC’s second biggest oil producer. Itproduces more than 3 million barrels of oil every day.

That is why a militant offensive in oil-producing areas ofnorthern Iraq shocked energy markets last week. But the threat may not be as serious as some observersthink. A lot depends on how long the unrest lasts.

Andrew Ricci works for Levick Energy, a researchbusiness. He thinks Americans will see only a smallincrease in gasoline and heating oil prices.

Civilian stand next to a burnt vehicle during clashes between Iraqi security forces and Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in the northern Iraq city of Mosul, June 10, 2014.

“The real impact that it’ll have on the United States is that it’s going to empower the arguments for advocatesof energy independence, energy stability and cleanenergy sources.”

Oil prices have changed little over the past four years. One reason is lower demand for oil in developedcountries. Another is the rise in alternative fuel sources, including biofuel andethanol from plants. There is also the possibility of currently undevelopedoilfields from Libya to Iran. John Kemp writes on energy issues for the Reuters news service.

“First of all, we saw South Sudan, then Libya, then Nigeria. Iran’s oil has beenkept largely off the market by sanctions, and now, we’re seeing mountingproblems in Iraq, all of which means that you can see lots of oil in the future. But in the near term, the market remains fairly balanced.”

But Andrew Ricci says much will depend on whether Islamic militants are ableto permanently occupy Iraqi territory.

“If the whole country goes back into insurgent hands, then I think, it’s not goingto be a good thing. All bets are off. Any instability is not going to be a goodthing for hydrocarbon fuels.”

The threat of unrest has helped push prices for future oil purchases to highsnot seen since last September. But the threat of a cut in Iraqi oil exports maybe limited. Energy experts say the country’s most productive oil fields are to the south, in areas opposed to the Sunni-led militants.

I’m Mario Ritter.