現代企業(yè)管理有多“科學”？

Congratulations, then, to evolutionary biologist Sally Le Page for triggering just such a charge last week. 那么，恭喜進化生物學家薩麗•勒佩奇(Sally Le Page)上周觸發(fā)了這樣的一個指控。

She blogged her astonishment that many of the country’s biggest water companies had blithely admitted to using dowsing rods to help locate pipes and leaks. Another scientist has dismissed the technique as witchcraft. 勒佩奇在一篇博文中表達了她的震驚：英國很多大型水務公司若無其事地承認借助占卜棒來定位管道和泄漏點。另一位科學家則把這種方法視為巫術。

The water suppliers themselves have been rowing back fast. Some engineers were part-time diviners, apparently, but the real hard work of leak detection was backed by drones, robots and lots and lots of science. 相關供水公司很快改口。顯然，一些工程技術人員是兼職的占卜者，但真正艱巨的檢漏工作是由無人飛機、機器人和大量科技手段支持的。

I say let us allow the water industry’s warlocks to indulge their medieval pastimes. After all, there are plenty of examples of modern management and leadership based on superstition, credulity and blind faith. Here are just a few: 要我說，就讓水務行業(yè)的術士們沉迷于這種中世紀的消遣吧。畢竟，有很多現代的管理和領導方式建立在迷信、輕信和盲從之上。以下是其中一小部分：

Numerology. In China, mumbo-jumbo about feng shui and ominous or propitious flotation dates, trading symbols and stock codes often influences how supposedly sophisticated companies arrange their affairs. Elements of Alibaba’s 2014 listing appeared to revolve around the “lucky” number eight, for example. 數字命理學。在中國，有關風水的煞有介事的理論，以及上市日期、商標和股票代碼的吉兇，往往影響著理應現代化的企業(yè)安排事務的方式。例如，2014年阿里巴巴(Alibaba)上市的某些元素似乎圍繞著8這個“吉祥”數字。

But before western chief executives scoff, they should consider how much they are still in thrall to the cult described in Alex Berenson’s 2003 book The Number — the quarterly earnings consensus they conspire with analysts and investors to hit, or better still, to beat. Regular evidence — recently, for instance, from Campbell Soup (a miss), and Home Depot (a “beat”) — suggests the cult is thriving. 但西方的首席執(zhí)行官們也別忙著嗤之以鼻，他們應當先想想自己有多受制于亞歷克斯•貝倫森(Alex Berenson)在2003年出版的《數字》(The Number)一書中描述的癡迷，那就是他們與分析師和投資者合謀要達到、或最好超出的季度盈利共識預測。時常有證據表明這種癡迷仍在大行其道，如最近的金寶湯公司(Campbell Soup)(遜于預期)和家得寶(Home Depot)(超出預期)。

Indeed, the availability and crunchability of Big Data have broadened disciples of the number. They now include company bosses who worship near-term, data-driven answers, rather than holding out for better, if messier, longer-term solutions that take account of human intuition. 的確，大數據的可獲得和可分析特性拓寬了數字癡迷者群體?，F在這個群體包括一些企業(yè)老板，他們崇拜短期的、數據驅動的答案，而不是等待更好的(即便更亂糟糟的)、考慮人類直覺的較長期解決方案。

As the veteran management thinker Charles Handy pointed out in a rousing closing address to the recent Drucker Forum, “if the organisation were purely digitised . . . it would be a very dreary place, a prison for the human soul”. 元老級管理學思想家查爾斯•漢迪(Charles Handy)最近在德魯克論壇(Drucker Forum)上發(fā)表激動人心的閉幕演講，正如他在其中指出的那樣，“如果組織純粹是數字化的……它將沉悶至極，禁錮人類的靈魂”。

Leaps of faith. Any chief executive who has ever announced a corporate vision without a clear idea of the kinds of steps needed to achieve the goal is at least partly guilty of magical thinking. 信仰飛躍。任何首席執(zhí)行官如果宣布了公司愿景，卻對實現目標所需的步驟不甚了了，都至少抱有一部分魔幻思維。

Richard Rumelt wrote in Good Strategy/Bad Strategy 理查德•魯梅爾特(Richard Rumelt)在《好戰(zhàn)略，壞戰(zhàn)略》(Good Strategy/Bad Strategy)中論述了這樣一種危險錯覺，即追求成功也許會帶來成功：“我不會愿意搭乘由那些只關注飛機飛行時的畫面、而從不考慮故障模式的人設計的飛機。”

about the dangerous delusion that aiming for success can lead to success: “I would not care to fly in an aircraft designed by people who focused only on an image of a flying aeroplane and never considered modes of failure.” 拋枚硬幣許個愿。證據顯示，獎金往好了說也只是一種生硬的激勵，而現代企業(yè)仍對此視而不見，它們向員工砸錢，希望這樣能有助于觸動他們的心靈。至少許愿池只是吞下扔進去的硬幣，除此之外沒什么負面后果。獎金制度如果不加節(jié)制，那就像金融危機中最過分的行為所表明的，可能會以令人意外的方式變成壞事。

Throw a coin and make a wish. Modern companies still close their eyes to evidence suggesting bonuses are at best a blunt incentive, and chuck cash at staff in the hope that it will help them reach their heart’s desire. At least wishing wells swallow the donation with no adverse consequence, other than the loss of your penny. Unfettered bonus culture, as the worst excesses of the financial crisis suggest, can backfire in unexpected ways. 禱文與咒語。盲目應用的治理規(guī)范和規(guī)章制度，幫助只會打勾填表的合規(guī)員工和董事會成員安心睡覺，因為他們不必再做出艱難的判斷。無意義的使命宣言為高管們提供了一條掛在嘴上的咒語，為他們不去實踐價值觀打掩護。

Chants and mantras. Slavishly applied governance codes and regulations help box-ticking compliance staff and board members sleep easy, by absolving them of the need to make difficult judgments. Meaningless mission statements give executives a mantra to recite as cover for not actually putting their values into practice. 人祭。重組和裁員是安撫諸神的現代儀式(只是沒有了群落聚在一起歡慶一下的好處)。

Human sacrifice. Restructurings and lay-offs are the modern ritual for appeasing the gods (but without the benefits of bringing the community together for a bit of a celebration). 英雄崇拜。盡管有大量關于扁平等級制度和分布式領導的流行說法，首席執(zhí)行官們仍是他們自己制造的神話中的核心人物。

Hero worship. For all the modish talk of flat hierarchies and distributed leadership, chief executives still become the central figures in a myth that is largely of their own creation. 這種自欺欺人的最危險之處在于，他們認為成功完全是通過自己的“技能、準備與堅韌不拔”實現的，就像吉姆•柯林斯(Jim Collins)和莫滕•漢森(Morten Hansen)在《選擇卓越》(Great by Choice)中描述的那樣。

The most dangerous part of this self-delusion is that they believe success was achieved entirely through their “skill, preparation and tenacity”, as described by Jim Collins and Morten Hansen in Great by Choice 這兩名研究者發(fā)現，成功的領導者可能產生更大的“運氣回報”，因為他們在利用機會時更有章法，并能借助時運不佳砥礪自身，最終變得更強大。但兩名研究者也指出，最佳領導者和那些由于過分、危險地信奉自身本事而令組織面臨風險的領導者只有一線之隔。后一類人傾向于這樣斷言：“我的成功根本不是靠運氣——我就是很優(yōu)秀。”

. 正是就此而言，對那些無法預知的、外界知之甚少的力量保持謙遜的尊重是有益的。即時沒有什么別的作用，它至少可以提醒那些自信心爆棚的領導者：有時他們的命運并不受他們掌控。

The researchers found successful leaders could generate a greater “return on luck” by being more disciplined at exploiting opportunities and riding bad luck to make themselves stronger. But they pointed out there was a fine line between the best leaders and those who put their organisations at risk through an exaggerated and dangerous belief in their own powers. Such leaders had a tendency to make these sorts of assertions: “Luck played no role in my success — I’m just really good.”