VOA慢速英語(yǔ):American Intelligence Report Predicts China will be World’s Leading Economic Power by 2030

[00:00.00]From VOA Learning English, this is IN THE NEWS in Special English. [00:10.48]A new American intelligence report this week [00:15.05]predicted Asia's economic power rising in the coming years. [00:20.76]The report says that by the year 2030, [00:25.12]the United States will no longer be the superpower it is today. [00:31.03]It says that no nation will have that kind of influence, [00:36.35]with power instead redirected to coalitions between countries. [00:42.41]The report comes from the National Intelligence Council [00:47.51]of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. [00:51.88]The document was researched and written by experts from outside the government. [00:58.99]They say the findings are meant to help policymakers [01:04.26]in their long-term planning on major issues. [01:08.46]The report says the world will look different by 2030. [01:14.28]The economy in Asia will be larger than that of North America and Europe combined. [01:22.18]China will have the largest economy in the world. [01:26.54]And the Chinese economy will be 140 percent greater than Japan's economy. [01:34.97]Some observers say China needs to take steps [01:40.08]before it can become the world's biggest economy. [01:44.34]Patrick Chovanec is with Tsinghua University's School of Economics and Management in Beijing. [01:52.47]He believes that several things could affect the country's economic growth. [01:58.83]"China's growth is extremely resource dependent [02:01.08]and those resources are becoming scarcer and scarcer. [02:04.08]In particular, water, in northern China, there is a growing scarcity of water, and that [02:09.00]along with other resource constraints might limit China's prospects of going forward." [02:13.50]Patrick Chovanec says the average age in China is rising [02:18.46]because of the country's one-child policy. [02:22.03]He says there are concerns China will grow old [02:26.97]before it is wealthy enough to support its growing population. [02:32.34]The new report also says the world economy will be [02:37.86]more dependent on the health of developing countries, instead of the West. [02:43.63]It says there will be a higher demand on resources as the world's population expands [02:52.50]from seven-point-one billion today to eight billion people. [02:58.07]The report says nearly half of the population will live in areas with severe water issues. [03:06.85]It says limited water resources and farmland could increase the risk of conflict [03:18.03]in parts of Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. [03:22.80]Experts are predicting that the United States could become [03:28.06]more active in settling disputes in the future. [03:32.53]As a mediator, America could work to prevent what the report calls [03:38.70]violence created from insecurity in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. [03:45.27]Robert Kagan is with the Brookings Institution in Washington. [03:50.43]"What the world is looking for from the United States - and it's not the world - [03:53.94]individual states look for protection, [03:57.68]they look - in some cases - for the ability to organize. [04:02.15]I mean if you take the Syria issue which is before us right now, [04:05.35]what people are waiting for is for the United States to step up and start pulling everyone together. [04:10.86]And what's been missing has been the United States playing that role." [04:14.84]The writers of the report say their findings are not meant to predict the future, [04:20.95]but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures. [04:26.71]The report adds that the best world possible would exist [04:32.31]if the United States and China work together and lead international cooperation.

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