Unit 4
Most economists hate gold. Not, you understand, that they would turn up their noses at a bar or two. But they find the reverence in which many hold the metal almost irrational. That it was used as money for millennia is irrelevant: it isn’t any more. Modern money takes the form of paper or, more often, electronic data. To economists, gold is now just another commodity.
So why is its price soaring? Over the past week, this has topped $450 a troy ounce, up by 9% since the beginning of the year and 77% since April 2001. Ah, comes the reply, gold transactions are denominated in dollars, and the rise in the price simply reflects the dollar’s fall in terms of other currencies, especially the euro, against which it hit a new low this week. Expressed in euros, the gold price has moved much less. However, there is no iron link, as it were, between the value of the dollar and the value of gold. A rising price of gold, like that of anything else, can reflect an increase in demand as well as a depreciation of its unit of account.
This is where gold bulls come in. The fall in the dollar is important, but mainly because as a store of value the dollar stinks. With a few longish rallies, the greenback has been on a downward trend since it came off the gold standard in 1971. Now it is suffering one of its sharper declines. At the margin, extra demand has come from those who think dollars—indeed any money backed by nothing more than promises to keep inflation low—a decidedly risky investment, mainly because America, with the world’s reserve currency, has been able to create and borrow so many of them. The least painful way of repaying those dollars is to make them worth less.
The striking exception to this extra demand comes from central banks, which would like to sell some of the gold they already have. As a legacy of the days when their currencies were backed by the metal, central banks still hold one-fifth of the world’s gold. Last month the Bank of France said it would sell 500 tonnes in coming years. But big sales by central banks can cause the price to plunge—as when the Bank of England sold 395 tonnes between 1999 and 2002. The result was an agreement between central banks to co-ordinate and limit future sales.
If the price of gold marches higher, this agreement will presumably be ripped up, although a dollar crisis might make central banks think twice about switching into paper money. Will the overhang of central-bank gold drag the price down again? Not necessarily. As James Grant, gold bug and publisher of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, a newsletter, points out, in recent years the huge glut of government debt has not stopped a sharp rise in its price.
注(1):本文選自Economist;
注(2):本文習(xí)題命題模仿對象:第1題模仿2015年真題Text 1第2題,第2、3題分別模仿2015年真題Text 4第3、2題,第4、5題分別模仿2013年真題Text 1第3題和2006年真題Text 1第3題。
1. In economists’ eyes, gold is something ______.
A) they look down upon
B) that can be exchanged in the market
C) worth people’s reverence
D) that should be replaced by other forms of money
2. According to the author, one of the reasons for the rising of gold price is ______.
A) the increasing demand for gold
B) the depreciation of the euro
C) the link between the dollar and gold
D) the increment of the value of the dollar
3. We can infer from the third Paragraph that ______.
A) the decline of the dollar is inevitable
B) America benefits from the depreciation of the dollar
C) the depreciation of the dollar is good news to other currencies
D) investment in the dollar yields more returns than that in gold
4. The phrase “ripped up” (Line 1, Paragraph 5) most probably means ______.
A) strengthened
B) broadened
C) renegotiated
D) torn up
5. According to the passage, the rise of gold price ______.
A) will not last long
B) will attract some central banks to sell gold
C) will impel central banks to switch into paper money
D) will lead to a dollar crisis
篇章剖析
本篇文章采用了提出問題——分析問題的模式,分析了金價(jià)上漲、美元下跌的經(jīng)濟(jì)態(tài)勢。第一段說明黃金是一種商品;第二段分析了金價(jià)上漲的原因:金價(jià)的上漲反映了需求的增加以及計(jì)價(jià)單位的貶值;第三段分析了美元下跌的原因;第四段分析了各國央行的反應(yīng);最后一段對金價(jià)繼續(xù)上揚(yáng)可能帶來的影響進(jìn)行了分析。
詞匯注釋
reverence /?rev?r?ns/ n. 崇敬,尊敬
millennia /m??len??/ n. (millennium的復(fù)數(shù))一千年
soaring /?s??r??/ adj. 劇增的,猛增的
troy ounce 金衡制
denominate /d??n?m?ne?t/ v. 以…面值發(fā)行,以某種給定的貨幣單位發(fā)行或表達(dá)
euro /?j??r??/ n. 歐元
depreciation /d??pri??i?e??n/ n. 跌價(jià);貶值
bull /b?l/ n. 買空;(做)多頭
stink /st??k/ v. 發(fā)出臭味
longish /?l????/ adj. 相當(dāng)長的
rally /?r?li/ n. (行情、價(jià)格等)跌后復(fù)升
greenback /?ɡr??nb?k/ n. 美鈔
tonne /t?n/ n. 公噸(=1,000公斤或稱 metric ton)
rip up 撕毀;取消
overhang /???v??h??/ n. 突出量
難句突破
At the margin, extra demand has come from those who think dollars—indeed any money backed by nothing more than promises to keep inflation low—a decidedly risky investment, mainly because America, with the world’s reserve currency, has been able to create and borrow so many of them.
主體句式:Extra demand has come because...
結(jié)構(gòu)分析:本句是一個(gè)復(fù)雜句,from這個(gè)介詞所引導(dǎo)的狀語中包含一個(gè)who引導(dǎo)的定語從句,一個(gè)插入語,主句之后是一個(gè)because引導(dǎo)的原因狀語從句。nothing more than的意思是“只不過,僅僅”。
句子譯文:美元貶值的額外需求來自于那些認(rèn)為美元——實(shí)際上是任何一種依靠抑制通脹的許諾來支撐的貨幣——無疑是一種高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資的人,主要因?yàn)槊绹鴵碛忻涝@一世界儲(chǔ)備貨幣,而且一直能夠制造和借來很多美元。
題目分析
1. B 細(xì)節(jié)題。文章第一段提到經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家不喜歡黃金的原因是人們對黃金缺乏理性的崇拜。在他們看來,黃金只不過是一種商品,也就是可以在市場上交換的東西。
2. A 細(xì)節(jié)題。文章第二段分析了金價(jià)上漲的兩個(gè)主要原因:金價(jià)用美元表示,而美元相對于其他貨幣貶值了;市場對黃金需求的增加。
3. B 推理題。根據(jù)文章第三段,美國因?yàn)閾碛忻涝@一世界儲(chǔ)備貨幣,而且一直能夠制造和借來很多美元。要償還這些美元,最不費(fèi)力的方式就是讓美元貶值??梢?,從這個(gè)角度來看,美元貶值對美國是有益的事情。
4. D 語義題。根據(jù)文章第四段,為了防止出現(xiàn)一國央行大量拋售黃金導(dǎo)致金價(jià)下跌的情況,各國央行達(dá)成協(xié)議,協(xié)調(diào)和限制今后的黃金銷售。如果金價(jià)持續(xù)上漲,很可能一些央行會(huì)再次拋售黃金(文中提到法國央行出售黃金的決定),那樣各國央行之間的協(xié)議就會(huì)被破壞。因此,根據(jù)上下文,“ripped up”最有可能的意思就是“torn up”(撕毀)。
5. B 細(xì)節(jié)題。根據(jù)文章第四段,在許多買家大量買入黃金的同時(shí),許多央行卻打算將他們囤積的黃金出售。文章第五段說,如果金價(jià)繼續(xù)上揚(yáng),各國央行之間用于協(xié)調(diào)和限制未來黃金銷售的協(xié)議將會(huì)被打破,也就是說金價(jià)的上漲會(huì)吸引各國央行出售黃金。
參考譯文
大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都討厭黃金。要知道,這可不是因?yàn)樗麄兦撇黄鹨粌蓧K金條,而是因?yàn)樗麄儼l(fā)現(xiàn)許多人對這種金屬的崇拜幾乎到了毫無理性的地步。它被用作千禧年的貨幣是另外一回事:何況那已經(jīng)是明日黃花了?,F(xiàn)代貨幣采用的是紙幣的形式,或者更多時(shí)候直接采用電子數(shù)據(jù)的形式。對經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家來說,黃金現(xiàn)在只是另外一種商品。
那么為什么金價(jià)會(huì)大幅上漲呢?在過去一周里,每金衡(1金衡約31.1025克)的價(jià)格達(dá)到了450美元,比年初上漲了9%,而比2001年4月則上漲了77%。啊,答案揭曉了,黃金交易是以美元來計(jì)數(shù)的,價(jià)格的上漲只是反映了美元對其他貨幣比價(jià)的下跌,尤其是對歐元的比價(jià),本周美元對歐元的比價(jià)再創(chuàng)新低。用歐元計(jì)數(shù)的話,金價(jià)的波動(dòng)要小得多。然而,美元價(jià)值和黃金價(jià)值之間似乎并沒有固定聯(lián)系。像其他任何東西的價(jià)格一樣,金價(jià)的上漲可以反映需求的增加以及計(jì)價(jià)單位的貶值。
因此就出現(xiàn)了黃金買空。美元的下跌之所以重要,主要是因?yàn)樽鳛橐环N保值手段美鈔可謂臭名昭著。自從1971年脫離金本位,美元就一直處于跌勢,其間只有為數(shù)不多的幾次為期稍長的跌后復(fù)升。這一次跌幅更大。美元貶值的額外需求來自于那些認(rèn)為美元——實(shí)際上是任何一種依靠抑制通脹的許諾來支撐的貨幣——無疑是一種高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資的人,主要因?yàn)槊绹鴵碛忻涝@一世界儲(chǔ)備貨幣,而且一直能夠制造和借來很多美元。要償還這些美元,最不費(fèi)力的方式就是讓美元貶值。
各國中央銀行的反應(yīng)跟這種額外需求正好形成鮮明對照。這些銀行都想把手里的黃金賣掉一些。以前各國貨幣都依靠這種金屬,歷史承襲的結(jié)果就是各國中央銀行的黃金儲(chǔ)量是世界黃金總量的五分之一。上個(gè)月,法國中央銀行宣布即將在未來幾年出售500噸黃金。不過中央銀行大量出售黃金會(huì)導(dǎo)致金價(jià)猛跌——1999年至2002年之間英格蘭銀行出售395噸黃金時(shí)就發(fā)生過這種情況。其結(jié)果是各國央行達(dá)成協(xié)議,協(xié)調(diào)限制今后的銷售。
如果金價(jià)繼續(xù)上揚(yáng),這個(gè)協(xié)議就會(huì)被破壞,雖然一場美元危機(jī)會(huì)讓各國央行在轉(zhuǎn)向紙幣經(jīng)營問題上慎之又慎。那么央行所儲(chǔ)備的大量黃金是否會(huì)將金價(jià)再次拉下來呢?那倒不一定。正如時(shí)事通訊《格蘭特利率觀察家》的出版人兼黃金迷詹姆斯·格蘭特所指出的,最近幾年政府的巨額債務(wù)并未阻止金價(jià)的大幅上漲。
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