Breaking records can become monotonous after a while. The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks the costs of shipping “dry” goods such as iron ore, coal and grain around the world, dipped this week after hitting an all-time high on November 13th. But it is still up 154% from a year earlier.
As with so much to do with commodities, the extraordinary rise in freight rates is partly because of China's appetite for raw materials. A dearth of new ships, and flotillas waiting to berth in overcrowded ports (especially in Australia), are also driving rates higher. The cost of shipping iron ore from Brazil to China is now more than the cost of digging up the ore itself. Yet what makes the problem worse (or better, if you are a ship-owner) are the ways in which shifts in supply and demand are altering trade patterns around the world, especially in commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the most frequently traded cargoes in international shipping.
Take iron ore. China's biggest suppliers—Australia and India—have been unable to cope with the surge in demand. According to Icap Hyde, a firm of shipbrokers, Australia's market share of China's iron-ore imports fell from 70% around 15 years ago to about 40% last year. Earlier this year, to ensure enough iron ore for its own industries, India imposed tariffs on sales of iron ore abroad. Over the years, Chinese steel producers have scouted elsewhere for the metal—mainly in Brazil, where they have secured long-term supply contracts. But it takes three times as long to move cargo from Brazil to China as it does from Australia, which, in effect, reduces shipping capacity for each shipment of Brazilian iron ore to China that comes at Australia's expense.
Meanwhile, China used to export much more coal than it imported, according to Jon Chappell of JPMorgan. As recently as 2001, its net exports of coal were 89m tons. So far this year, it has imported almost as much as it has exported. Other East Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea relied heavily on China for coal and now have to import it from Australia, South Africa and the Americas. So does India. Meanwhile, drought in Australia has meant that large Asian importers have had to ship grain from as far away as America.
In general, points out Icap Hyde, there is an “oceanic imbalance” between the Atlantic and Pacific. Supply is spread across both oceans, even as demand is concentrated in Asia. Shipping ton-miles for the major “dry” goods, which indicates the extent to which more freight is moved over longer distances, rose by 45% between 2001 and 2006. That is good news for freight rates, if any more were needed. By all accounts, the bull run is likely to last until 2009, when a huge number of new ships are due to be launched. Let's hope they are built for trans-oceanic travel.
1. Which one of the following statements is TRUE of the Baltic Dry Index?
[A] The index is increased by 154% compared with the previous year.
[B] The index keeps track on the trade cost of all sorts of dry goods.
[C] The index has been breaking records for at least a few years.
[D] The index is monotonous during this period.
2. The word “scout” (Line 4, Paragraph 3) most probably means _____.
[A] change
[B] turn
[C] seek
[D] outsource
3. Australia's market share of China's iron-ore imports went through a steep fall because _____.
[A] the ports in Australia are overcrowded
[B] the shipping capacity is reduced
[C] the iron-ore demand of China is increased greatly
[D] the tariffs are imposed on sales of iron ore
4. The “oceanic imbalance” between Atlantic and Pacific refers to _____.
[A] the imbalance in dry goods supply
[B] the imbalance in dry goods demand
[C] the imbalance in shipping ton-miles for the dry goods
[D] the imbalance in freight rates
5. The bull run of dry goods shipping will most probably be ended by _____.
[A] rise of the shipping ton-miles for the major “dry” goods
[B] the shifts in supply and demand
[C] the increase of the shipping capacity
[D] the launch of new ships in great number
1. Which one of the following statements is TRUE of the Baltic Dry Index?
[A] The index is increased by 154% compared with the previous year.
[B] The index keeps track on the trade cost of all sorts of dry goods.
[C] The index has been breaking records for at least a few years.
[D] The index is monotonous during this period.
1. 關(guān)于波羅的海干貨系數(shù),下列哪個陳述是正確的?
[A] 和前一年相比,該系數(shù)增長了154%。
[B] 該系數(shù)追蹤各種干貨的交易成本。
[C] 該系數(shù)已經(jīng)保持了幾年的高位增長。
[D] 該系數(shù)在這一階段一直沒變。
答案:C 難度系數(shù):☆☆☆☆
分析:細(xì)節(jié)題。根據(jù)第一段有關(guān)該系數(shù)的描述,選項(xiàng)A,原文意為該系數(shù)是上一年的154%,也就是增長了54%,因此該陳述錯誤。選項(xiàng)B,目前該系數(shù)在到達(dá)歷史最高位后有了回落,但未來走勢如何還不能確定。選項(xiàng)C,第一段提到每天這個系數(shù)都在刷新紀(jì)錄,現(xiàn)在出現(xiàn)了一個回落,那么可以推斷該系數(shù)處于歷史高位。同時,文章第一句話也指出:Breaking records can become monotonous after a while. 可見,這種打破紀(jì)錄式的增長也不是什么新鮮事了,而是不斷出現(xiàn)的。選項(xiàng)D,從系數(shù)每天刷新紀(jì)錄可以看出,系數(shù)一直在變化。因此,選項(xiàng)C是正確描述。
2. The word “scout” (Line 4, Paragraph 3) most probably means _____.
[A] change
[B] turn
[C] seek
[D] outsource
2. scout這個詞(第三段第四行)最有可能的意思是 _____。
[A] 改變
[B] 轉(zhuǎn)向
[C] 尋找
[D] 外包
答案:C 難度系數(shù):☆☆☆
分析:猜詞題。原文的句子為:Over the years, Chinese steel producers have scouted elsewhere for the metal—mainly in Brazil, where they have secured long-term supply contracts. 該句中文意為“這些年來,中國鋼鐵制造商在其他地方尋找鐵礦石,主要是在巴西。他們與巴西簽署了長期的供貨合同”,通過上下文可以發(fā)現(xiàn),“尋找”最符合本題的含義。
3. Australia's market share of China's iron-ore imports went through a steep fall because _____.
[A] the ports in Australia are overcrowded
[B] the shipping capacity is reduced
[C] the iron-ore demand of China is increased greatly
[D] the tariffs are imposed on sales of iron ore
3. 對中國的鐵礦石出口中,澳大利亞的份額減少了,這是因?yàn)?_____。
[A] 澳大利亞的港口過于擁擠
[B] 運(yùn)輸能力下降了
[C] 中國對鐵礦石的需求量大增
[D] 對鐵礦石的銷售征收關(guān)稅
答案:C 難度系數(shù):☆☆☆
分析:推理題。文章第三段提到,澳大利亞和印度現(xiàn)在滿足不了中國對鐵礦石激增的需求,中國不得不到巴西去簽訂鐵礦石供貨合同。因此,澳大利亞占中國鐵礦石進(jìn)口份額的減少主要是中國對鐵礦石需求的增加,它不能夠滿足這種需求導(dǎo)致的。因此,答案為C。
4. The “oceanic imbalance” between Atlantic and Pacific refers to _____.
[A] the imbalance in dry goods supply
[B] the imbalance in dry goods demand
[C] the imbalance in shipping ton-miles for the dry goods
[D] the imbalance in freight rates
4. 太平洋和大西洋之間的“海洋失衡”指的是 _____。
[A] 干貨供應(yīng)的失衡
[B] 干貨需求的失衡
[C] 干貨運(yùn)輸噸英里的失衡
[D] 運(yùn)費(fèi)的失衡
答案:B 難度系數(shù):☆☆☆
分析:細(xì)節(jié)題。文章最后一段提到,大西洋和太平洋間存在著“海洋失衡”,雖然需求集中在亞洲,但是供應(yīng)卻是跨越兩個大洋,那么,這種失衡其實(shí)就是干貨需求的失衡??梢姡x項(xiàng)B為正確答案。
5. The bull run of dry goods shipping will most probably be ended by _____.
[A] rise of the shipping ton-miles for the major “dry” goods
[B] the shifts in supply and demand
[C] the increase of the shipping capacity
[D] the launch of new ships in great number
5. 干貨運(yùn)輸?shù)呐J凶钣锌赡芤驗(yàn)?_____ 結(jié)束。
[A] 主要干貨運(yùn)輸噸英里增加
[B] 供求波動
[C] 運(yùn)輸能力的提高
[D] 大量新船下水
答案:D 難度系數(shù):☆☆
分析:細(xì)節(jié)題。文章最后一段提到,牛市可能于2009年結(jié)束,到那時會有大量新船下水。船的數(shù)量增加,運(yùn)費(fèi)就會降低,干貨運(yùn)輸系數(shù)就可能降低。因此,選項(xiàng)D最為符合題意。
過不了多久,打破紀(jì)錄就會變得司空見慣。波羅的海干貨系數(shù)是用來追蹤顯示全球運(yùn)送“干”貨物的成本的,這些干貨包括鐵礦石、煤炭以及糧食。該指數(shù)在11月13日創(chuàng)下最高紀(jì)錄后于本周出現(xiàn)回落,但仍然是前一年的154%。
除了貨物本身的諸多原因外,海運(yùn)價格的急劇增長部分程度上是因?yàn)橹袊鴮υ牧系男枨?。而由于新船舶緊缺,且小型船隊(duì)經(jīng)常要在過于擁擠的碼頭等待停泊(特別是在澳大利亞),這也使得運(yùn)輸價格高漲。目前從巴西往中國運(yùn)送鐵礦石的費(fèi)用比采掘鐵礦石的費(fèi)用都要高。供需變化正在改變著全世界的貿(mào)易形式,特別是對于像鐵礦石和煤炭這樣的貨物,而這些貨物又是國際船運(yùn)中運(yùn)送最多的貨物。而這使得這個問題變得更糟(或者說更好,如果你是船主的話)。
就拿鐵礦石來說。中國對最大的供應(yīng)商——澳大利亞和印度已經(jīng)不能滿足其對鐵礦石日益增長的需求。船舶經(jīng)紀(jì)人公司Icap Hyde稱,澳大利亞對中國鐵礦石出口的份額已經(jīng)由大約15年前的70%降到了去年的40%。今年年初,印度為確保本國工廠有足夠的鐵礦石供應(yīng),增加了鐵礦石的出口關(guān)稅。這些年來,中國鋼鐵制造商在其他地方尋找鐵礦石,主要是在巴西。他們與巴西簽署了長期的供貨合同。但是從巴西運(yùn)貨物到中國花費(fèi)的時間是從澳大利亞到中國的三倍,在運(yùn)費(fèi)與從澳大利亞起運(yùn)相同的情況下,運(yùn)載量實(shí)際上降低了。
另一方面,JPMorgan公司的Jon Chappell說,中國以前出口的煤炭數(shù)量要比進(jìn)口的多得多。2001年,中國凈出口的煤炭為8900萬噸,而今年到目前為止,其出口和進(jìn)口幾乎持平。其他東亞國家如日本和韓國等,以前的煤炭進(jìn)口主要依靠中國,而現(xiàn)在也不得不從澳大利亞、南非和美洲進(jìn)口。印度也是一樣。除此之外,澳大利亞的旱災(zāi)也使得亞洲的大進(jìn)口商必須從美洲進(jìn)口糧食。
Icap Hyde指出,總的來說,大西洋和太平洋之間存在一種“海洋失衡”。雖然需求主要集中在亞洲,但供應(yīng)卻要跨越兩洋。主要干貨的運(yùn)輸噸英里數(shù)是用來衡量長途船運(yùn)載量的情況的,該數(shù)據(jù)在2001年到2006年之間增長了45%。如果有更多的船運(yùn)需求的話,這對于船運(yùn)費(fèi)用是個好消息。所有評論都認(rèn)為,這種牛市行情能延續(xù)到2009年,到那時會有許多新船下水。希望這些船只是用于跨洋船運(yùn)。