托福雙語閱讀素材：經濟發(fā)展的收縮效應
economic development
Shrink wrap
Why the history of economic growth should be all about recessions
經濟發(fā)展
收縮效應
為何經濟增長史的關鍵在于衰退
“THROUGHOUT history, poverty is the normal condition of man,” wrote Robert Heinlein, a science-fiction writer. Until the 18th century, global GDP per person was stuck between $725 and $1,100, around the same income level as the World Bank’s current poverty line of $1.90 a day. But global income levels per person have since accelerated, from around $1,100 in 1800 to $3,600 in 1950, and over $10,000 today.
“縱觀歷史，貧窮是人們的常態(tài)。”科幻作家羅伯特·海因萊因(Robert Heinlein)寫道。直到18世紀，全球人均GDP一直停留在725美元至1100美元之間，這個收入水平大致相當于目前世界銀行劃定的貧困線：每天1.9美元。但從那時起，全球人均收入水平開始加速增長，從1800年的1100美元左右上升至1950年的3600美元，現(xiàn)在已超過10,000美元。
Economists have long tried to explain this sudden surge in output. Most theories have focused on the factors driving long-term economic growth such as the quantity and productivity of labour and capital. But a new paper* takes a different tack: faster growth is not due to bigger booms, but to less shrinking in recessions. Stephen Broadberry of Oxford University and John Wallis of the University of Maryland have taken data for 18 countries in Europe and the New World, some from as far back as the 13th century. To their surprise, they found that growth during years of economic expansion has fallen in the recent era—from 3.88% between 1820 and 1870 to 3.06% since 1950—even though average growth across all years in those two periods increased from 1.4% to 2.55%.
經濟學家長期以來一直試圖解釋何以出現(xiàn)這一產出的激增。大多數(shù)理論都聚焦于驅動長期經濟增長的因素，如勞動力的數(shù)量和生產率，以及資本。但一篇新論文*采用了不同的方法加以探究，認為增長加快并非緣于繁榮期更加蓬勃發(fā)展，而是因為衰退期的收縮程度減弱。牛津大學的斯蒂芬·布勞德伯利(Stephen Broadberry)和馬里蘭大學的約翰·沃里斯(John Wallis) 收集了來自歐洲和美洲共18個國家早至13世紀的數(shù)據。他們驚奇地發(fā)現(xiàn)，經濟擴張期的增長率在近期反而是下降的：在1820至1870年間，經濟擴張年份的增長率為3.88%，而從1950年至今，這一數(shù)字為3.06%，盡管這兩個時期里所有年份的平均增長率從1.4%上升到了2.55%。
Instead, shorter and shallower slumps led to rising long-term growth. Output fell in a third of years between 1820 and 1870 but in only 12% of those since 1950. The rate of decline per recession year has fallen too, from 3% to 1.2%.
相反，是衰退期縮短及其程度的減輕帶來了更快的長期增長。1820年至1870年間，三分之一的年份出現(xiàn)產出下降，但自1950年以來，產出下降的年頭僅占12%，每一個衰退年份的下降幅度也從3%減至1.2%。
So why have these “growth reversals” decreased in length and depth? In another paper** Messrs Broadberry and Wallis find that conventional explanations—such as demographic change or a sectoral shift from volatile agriculture to the more stable services sector—do not fully explain the shift.
這些“增長逆轉期”為何在時間和程度上出現(xiàn)下降?在另一篇論文**中，布勞德伯利和沃里斯發(fā)現(xiàn)，常規(guī)推論(如人口結構變化或經濟部門轉移，即從波動較大的農業(yè)轉向更穩(wěn)定的服務業(yè))并不能完全解釋這種變化。
More important is the rise of the rule of law, enabling disputes to be settled by impartial courts. Before the modern era, elites would fight between themselves for the spoils of growth and send the economy back to square one through wars, corruption and the like. Respect for courts to resolve disputes prevents this from happening. With populist politicians challenging the authority of judges once again across the world, that is food for thought.
更重要的是法治的興起，使人們可以通過公正的法庭解決爭議?，F(xiàn)代之前，精英之間為奪取經濟增長成果而爭斗不休，因此產生的戰(zhàn)爭、貪腐等更是會令經濟崩塌歸零。尊重法院解決糾紛則可以防止這種情況發(fā)生。隨著當今全球各地民粹主義政客再次挑戰(zhàn)法官的權威，上述觀點值得我們深思。
* “Growing, Shrinking and Long Run Economic Performance: Historical Perspectives on Economic Development” by S. Broadberry and J. Wallis
** “Shrink Theory: The Nature of Long Run and Short Run Economic Performance”
*《增長、收縮和長期經濟表現(xiàn)：從歷史角度看經濟發(fā)展》，斯蒂芬·布勞德伯利及約翰·沃里斯著
**《收縮理論：長期及短期經濟表現(xiàn)的本質》
