外國人最想和你聊的時事話題：人民幣升值

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2018年10月01日

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　What is appreciation of the RMB　什么是人民幣升值

     Revalue Yuan or not? This has been one of the hottest topics for the past decade and it has become an issue not only for Chinese policymakers but other governments around the world. The G20 summit of leaders from major developed and developing economies and the worsening of the European sovereign debt crisis have complicated the discussion of the Yuan's appreciation, with Chinese economists divided on the timing of the process. While some argue that appreciation would do more harm than good, others urge the opportunity be seized to accelerate the process of making the Yuan fully convertible.
     It is not time for Yuan appreciation. Yuan appreciation would benefit China's imports of products from machinery to resources, but the benefit would be limited compared with the damage to the overall economy. China has, for example, suffered from overcapacity in sectors such as iron and steel, and cheaper imports as a result of Yuan appreciation would only worsen the situation.
     Yuan appreciation will benefit rich people in China, but it will do little to help improve the livelihoods of the poor. It would only widen the gap, which would contribute to social problems.
     If the Yuan appreciates against the dollar, expectations of further gains in the value of the Yuan would lead to increased capital inflows, which would bring financial instability and would endanger China's financial security.
     What has largely been ignored by many people is that Yuan appreciation would facilitate imports of agricultural products, which would be disastrous for China's more than 500 million farmers. Although the country's entry into the World Trade Organization did not have a major impact on domestic farming, Yuan appreciation would have a more adverse effect on the industry, leading to more job losses.
     The sharp decline of the euro against the dollar and other major currencies means that the Yuan has effectively appreciated. Many people no longer expect the Yuan to resume its appreciation against the dollar, at least not in the next few months.
     However, as long as the markets calm down and the euro stabilizes, we think China could still start to de-link the Yuan from the dollar. The move would most likely be a return to some sort of a basket with a widening trading band against the dollar. Initially we expect the Yuan to appreciate against the dollar, but the increased flexibility could allow the exchange rate to move both ways, giving China more room to maneuver in the future.
     人民幣升值的好處包括：增強我國的購買力（purchasing power）；吸引大量資本進入中國市場；促使中國的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)(industry structure)從勞動密集型(labor intensive)向高附加值(high value-added)為主的方向轉(zhuǎn)化；為人民幣走向世界打下基礎(chǔ)；社會福利(social welfare)直接提高。人民幣升值的弊端包括：國家的外匯儲備(foreign exchange reserve)隨著升值幅度多少，相應(yīng)損失多少；產(chǎn)品出口(commodity export)數(shù)量減少；在一定程度上影響我國的勞務(wù)輸出(export of labor)；導(dǎo)致進口增加，縮小我國的貿(mào)易順差額(trade surplus)；銀行壞賬(bad debt)上升，帶來失業(yè)(unemployment)問題。

     Looking forward, the pressure on the appreciation of the RMB will be reduced, and depreciation is quite unlikely.
     由此看來，人民幣升值的壓力將會減輕，但決不會貶值。
     Both the inner and outside pressure of the further appreciation of Chinese currency will continue to increase.
     人民幣進一步升值的內(nèi)外部壓力將繼續(xù)增長。
     What would happen if the RMB rose by 30% overnight?
     假如一夜之間人民幣升值30%會發(fā)生什么事？
     What is offshore hot money in china gambling after RMB appreciated?
     人民幣升值后境外熱錢在中國到底還賭些什么？
     The appreciation of RMB will harm the export companies in our country.
     人民幣升值會損害我國出口企業(yè)。
     It is China that has the most to gain from allowing the Yuan to rise.
     中國將從允許人民幣升值中獲益最多。
     The appreciation of RMB yesterday surprised many investors although the financial market has increasingly stronger anticipation of this appreciation.
     盡管金融市場對人民幣升值的預(yù)期越來越強，但昨天的人民幣升值仍令許多投資者感到意外。
     The American Chamber of Commerce in China on Friday urged the US government to stop putting pressure on China to revalue the RMB.
     駐中國美國商會周五催促美國政府停止向中國施加人民幣升值壓力。
     The biggest fallacy of all is that a revaluation of the Yuan would greatly reduce America's trade deficit.
     最大的謬論是，人民幣升值將極大地減少美國的貿(mào)易逆差。
     Over the past four years, the exchange rate of the RMB has appreciated 44 percent, while the country's foreign exchange reserves increased by $120 billion.
     在過去的四年中，人民幣匯率實際升值了44%，增加了1200億美元左右的外匯儲備。
     The value of sterling has risen.
     英鎊已經(jīng)升值。
     A run on sterling following its rise in value against the dollar.
     英鎊對美元升值后引起的搶購英鎊的熱潮。
     The export market has become very difficult since the rise in the dollar.
     自從美元升值以來，出口市場面臨著非常嚴重的困境。
     The exchange rate of RMB remained stable, which stood at 1 US dollar = 8.2789 RMB Yuan at the end of December, an appreciation of 9 basic potions as compared with that at the end of 1997.
     人民幣匯率保持穩(wěn)定，12月末人民幣匯率為每美元兌8.2789元人民幣，比上年末升值9個基本點。

     Tom: The exchange rate between RMB and Dollar has been floating and mentioned frequently recently, what is the exchange rate?
     湯姆：美元和人民幣之間的匯率總是熱點，什么是匯率？
     Lin: It is the price of one currency expressed in terms of another.
     琳：匯率是指一種貨幣用另一種貨幣來表示的對值。
     Tom: Do you mean how much dollar could represent One Yuan?
     湯姆：是不是一元錢等于多少美元？
     Lin: Right!
     琳：正確!
     Tom: I am confused about it. Does it matter if the exchange rate changed?
     湯姆：我有點搞不懂，匯率有浮動會有影響嗎？
     Lin: Of course. The inflation of RMB has both positive and negative effects for Chinese economy.
     琳：當然有。人民幣升值對我國經(jīng)濟既有積極的影響也有消極的影響。
     Tom: What are the positive effects?
     湯姆：積極影響有哪些呢？
     Lin: First, it can increase our purchasing power. We can use less money to buy more commodities. Second, it can promote the transformation of Chinese industrial structure from labor intensive to capital intensive or technology intensive. Third, it can strengthen people's confidence. Last but not least, the social welfare will increase.
     琳：首先，我們的購買力得到了提高?？梢杂酶俚腻X買到更多的物品。第二，它促進了我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)由勞動密集型轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橘Y本或技術(shù)密集型。第三，它可以增強人們的信心。最后，社會福利水平能夠得到提高。
     Tom: How about the negative effects?
     湯姆：那消極方面呢？
     Lin: First, our foreign exchange reserve stands first in the list, while the U.S. dollar takes a relative large proportion. Along with the appreciation of RMB towards U.S. dollar, our foreign exchange reserve will suffer a severe shrink and undergo lost. Second, the export industry will attacked by this appreciation with a decrease of export volume. Besides, it will also lead to amount of unemployment.
     琳：首先，我國的外匯儲備現(xiàn)在居世界第一位，而美元在外匯儲備中所占的比重相當大。隨著人民幣對美元的升值，我國的外匯儲備將會縮水，從而造成損失。第二，我國的出口產(chǎn)業(yè)會受到?jīng)_擊，出口數(shù)量減少。此外，還會出現(xiàn)大量的失業(yè)。
     Tom: Everything does have two sides!
     湯姆：凡事真是都有兩面性啊!

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