外賣行業(yè)這么火爆，有沒有想過哪天會黃？

This week, two of Europe’s biggest online food ordering groups attempted to combine bookings when Amsterdam-based Takeaway.com said it was in talks to buy the UK’s Just Eat. The £5bn proposed takeover marks a land grab for market share in a crowded sector.

最近(編者注：本篇英文原文發(fā)表于2019年8月3日)，歐洲兩大在線訂餐集團(tuán)試圖合并預(yù)訂業(yè)務(wù)——總部位于阿姆斯特丹的Takeaway.com宣布正在談判收購英國的Just Eat。這項擬議中的50億英鎊收購標(biāo)志著在一個擁擠的行業(yè)搶占市場份額。

DoorDash on Thursday announced a $410m deal for Square’s restaurant delivery unit, Caviar. DoorDash has raised nearly $2bn in the past two years, most recently valuing the company at $12.6bn.

DoorDash最近宣布與Square的餐廳外賣部門Caviar達(dá)成4.1億美元交易。DoorDash在過去兩年籌集近20億美元的資金，最近估值達(dá)到126億美元。

“Lately, we’ve seen some massive deals go towards food delivery start-ups like DoorDash and Deliveroo. While this may give a short-term boost in prospects for the food delivery space, it doesn’t negate the fact that food delivery has had a tumultuouspast,” said Natan Reddy, senior intelligence analyst at CB Insights.

CB Insights的高級情報分析師納坦•雷迪(Natan Reddy)表示：“最近，我們看到一些大筆交易轉(zhuǎn)向DoorDash和Deliveroo這樣的送餐初創(chuàng)公司。雖然這可能會在短期提振外賣行業(yè)的前景，但它并不能抹掉外賣業(yè)務(wù)過去混亂無序的事實。”

Historically, the online food marketplace connected consumers with takeaway food restaurants, leaving the restaurants to cart the food to customers. Today’s apps such as DoorDash and Deliveroo are fighting to get to your doorstep.

傳統(tǒng)上，在線食品市場在消費者與外賣餐館之間牽線搭橋，然后讓餐館直接向顧客送餐。如今DoorDash和Deliveroo等app正在競相把餐食送到你的家門口。

US research group Second Measure has attempted to shed some light on the booming sector. By analysing anonymised credit and debit card data it estimates that US sales have grown three-fold since 2016, with market leader DoorDash earning 34 per cent of US consumers’ meal delivery sales in June, overtaking GrubHub and topping Uber Eats.

美國研究集團(tuán)Second Measure試圖進(jìn)一步剖析這個蓬勃發(fā)展的行業(yè)。通過分析匿名信用卡和借記卡數(shù)據(jù)，它估計美國的銷售額自2016年以來增長至原有水平的三倍，市場領(lǐng)軍者DoorDash在今年6月贏得了美國消費者外賣銷售額的34%，超越了GrubHub，也高于Uber Eats。

The sector is clearly thriving, but the economics do not yet stack up.

該行業(yè)顯然正在蓬勃發(fā)展，但在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)上仍然站不住腳。

It makes sense if these businesses operate in bustling metropolitan cities filled with high-rise buildings where one apartment block can service multiple orders. Or where orders are very large. But those cost efficiencies quickly narrow if the delivery company is spending time going from door to door, or the orders are small deliveries, such as a burger and chips.

如果這些企業(yè)在高樓大廈林立的繁華大都市中運(yùn)營，一個公寓樓里可以派送多個訂單，或者訂單金額非常大，那么這種業(yè)務(wù)模式是可行的。但是，如果外賣公司花時間挨家挨戶送餐，或者是漢堡和薯條等小額訂單，那么成本效率會迅速降低。

Offering wider services by delivering groceries, or items like toothpaste, similar to how room service works at a hotel, also has its pitfalls.

通過派送生鮮食品或牙膏等物品來提供更廣泛的服務(wù)(類似于酒店的客房服務(wù))也有其缺陷。

“The problem you face with delivery is ensuring that you gain enough drops per hour to establish profitability. By opening it up to groceries, or non-takeaway food, you may gain more orders, but these may not overlap, which will just add extra costs,” said James Lockyer, an analyst at Peel Hunt.

Peel Hunt的分析師詹姆斯•洛克耶(James Lockyer)表示：“對于外賣業(yè)務(wù)，你面臨的問題是確保每小時獲得足夠的送餐次數(shù)，以便實現(xiàn)盈利。增添生鮮食品或非外賣食品，可能會讓你獲得更多的訂單，但這些訂單可能不會與送餐訂單重疊，這只會增加額外的成本。”

Mr Lockyer argued that the prospect of having convenient foods delivered within the hour, such as with Ocado’s Zoom, could shake up the sector even further. He said being able to receive and cook healthy foods quickly could threaten those such as Deliveroo.

洛克耶表示，一小時內(nèi)提供方便食品的前景，就像Ocado的Zoom所提供的服務(wù)，可能會進(jìn)一步撼動該行業(yè)。他說，能夠快速收貨并烹飪健康食品，可能會對Deliveroo之類的平臺構(gòu)成威脅。

That scenario will be unwelcome as the strain of intense competition is already biting. US-listed food delivery company GrubHub has had its market share eaten away by new entrants, leading to a share price drop of 50 per cent in the past year, while Just Eat’s pre-tax profit fell 98 per cent and Takeaway.com doubled its loss before tax in its latest results.

這種局面將不受歡迎，因為業(yè)者已經(jīng)感受到了激烈競爭的壓力。在美國上市的外賣公司GrubHub的市場份額被新進(jìn)入者搶走，導(dǎo)致其股價在過去一年下跌50%，而Just Eat的稅前利潤驟降98%，Takeaway.com的最新財報顯示稅前虧損增加了一倍。

A long history of failures exists in the on-demand space, and food delivery platforms are no exception. Even Amazon has had to close its doors on its food delivery platform Amazon Restaurants in the US and UK.

按需領(lǐng)域存在著長期的失敗歷史，送餐平臺也不例外。就連亞馬遜(Amazon)也不得不關(guān)閉其在美國和英國的送餐平臺——亞馬遜餐廳(Amazon Restaurants)。