牛油果，全球貿(mào)易中的“綠色黃金”

Under the volcanoes in Mexico’s Michoacán state, violent cartels are fighting to dominate a shadowy and lucrative market. One gang, called La Familia Michoacana, announced its presence about a decade ago by tossing five rivals’ heads onto a dance floor in the town of Uruapan. The Knights Templar muscled in next, spouting a chivalric code of honor as it taxed, extorted and kidnapped farmers and usurped their land. Mexican security forces and local landowners have tried to fight back, but warring cartels continue to splinter and proliferate. In March, an armed group known as Los Viagras — apparently named for the way their leader’s heavily moussed hair stands up — wreaked havoc by burning dozens of vehicles and effectively shutting down the state’s main highway. One conflagration took place not far from where an American businessman named Steve Barnard owns a packing plant in Uruapan. “It’s too dangerous to drive on the roads,” Barnard says. The farm owners “have to be very careful not to get kidnapped.”

在墨西哥米卻肯州的火山腳下，暴力團伙都在爭奪一個神秘且利潤豐厚的市場的控制權(quán)。約十年前，其中一個名為米卻肯家族(La Familia Michoacana)的幫派，將五名對手的腦袋扔到了烏魯阿潘城的一家舞廳，宣示了自己的存在。接著，圣殿騎士(The Knights Templar)擠了進來，在課稅、威脅和綁架農(nóng)民，侵占他們土地的同時，大談騎士準則。墨西哥安全部隊及當?shù)氐耐恋厮姓咴噲D回擊，但相互交戰(zhàn)的暴力集團繼續(xù)分裂，數(shù)量激增。3月，一個名為偉哥幫(Los Viagras，這個名字顯然來源于該組織頭目抹了大量摩絲而豎起的發(fā)型)的武裝組織燒毀數(shù)十輛汽車，導致該州的主要高速公路關(guān)閉，造成巨大的破壞。其中一場大火發(fā)生的地點，距離美國商人史蒂夫·巴納德(Steve Barnard)在烏魯阿潘的包裝廠不遠。“在路上開車太危險了，”巴納德說。農(nóng)場主“必須要非常小心，才不會被綁架”。

The precious commodity that drives Michoacán’s economy and feeds an American obsession is not marijuana or methamphetamines but avocados, which local residents have taken to calling “green gold.” Mexico produces more of the fruit than any country in the world — about a third of the global total — and most of its crop is grown in the rich volcanic soil of Michoacán, upland from the beaches of Acapulco. It is one of the miracles of modern trade that in 2017, Mexico’s most violent year on record, this cartel-riddled state exported more than 1.7 billion pounds of Haas avocados to the United States, helping them surpass bananas as America’s most valuable fruit import. Nine out of every 10 imported avocados in the United States come from Michoacán.

推動米卻肯州經(jīng)濟、滿足美國人迷戀的珍貴商品不是大麻或冰毒，而是牛油果，當?shù)厝朔Q之為“綠色黃金”。墨西哥生產(chǎn)的這種水果比世界上任何國家都多，約為全球總產(chǎn)量的三分之一，它主要種植在米卻肯州肥沃的火山土壤里，也就是從阿卡普爾科海灘升起的高地上。它是現(xiàn)代貿(mào)易的奇跡之一，在2017年——墨西哥有記錄以來最為暴力的一年，這個暴力團伙活動猖獗的州向美國出口了超過17億磅哈斯牛油果，使其超過香蕉，成為美國價值最高的進口水果。每10個進口到美國的牛油果中，就有9個來自米卻肯州。

The real marvel of Mexico’s avocado trade, however, is not so much its size as the speed of its sudden growth. Avocados have been cultivated in Mexico for around 9,000 years. (When Spanish conquistadors first encountered the oblong fruit in the early 16th century, they called it aguacate, after ahuacatl, an Aztec word that means testicle.) Despite this deep history, Mexico exported very few avocados — and none at all to the United States — through the 1980s, when Barnard’s California-based company, Mission Produce, opened the first avocado-packing plant in Uruapan. The United States had banned Mexican avocados since 1914 over fears of an insect infestation and cheaper competition. But in 1994, Mexico, Canada and the United States enacted the North American Free Trade Agreement — and soon thereafter the United States began lifting its ban.

然而，墨西哥牛油果貿(mào)易真正的奇跡并非其貿(mào)易規(guī)模，而是它突然間的增速。牛油果在墨西哥已經(jīng)有約9000年的歷史了。(當時西班牙征服者于16世紀早期第一次見到了這種橢圓形的水果，他們根據(jù)阿芝特克人形容睪丸的詞“ahuacatl”，將其稱之為“aguacate”。)盡管有著悠久歷史，但整個1980年代，墨西哥的牛油果出口量非常少——對美國則完全沒有出口。當時巴納德總部位于加利福尼亞的公司“使命生產(chǎn)”(Mission Produce)開設(shè)了烏魯阿潘的第一家牛油果包裝廠。由于擔憂會出現(xiàn)蟲害和廉價競爭，美國自1914年開始禁止進口墨西哥牛油果。但在1994年，墨西哥、加拿大和美國通過了《北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)議》(North American Free Trade Agreement)——那之后不久，美國就取消了禁令。

An avocado explosion followed. In 1994, Americans consumed a little more than one pound of the fruit per person per year — almost all from California growers, whose harvest comes only in the summer. Today, that figure is up to seven pounds per person year-round. Fueled by a growing Latino community and Hollywood stars promoting the health benefits of the fruit’s unsaturated fats (Miley Cyrus has an avocado tattoo on her arm), America’s avocado craze has intensified every year. An estimated 135 million pounds of avocados were consumed in the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl last month. (The Super Bowl is America’s top avocado day, just ahead of Cinco de Mayo.) “The boom caught everybody by surprise,” says Barnard, whose company is the world’s largest avocado distributor. “We’re really scrambling. We’re growing at 10 to 15 percent per year, but we still can’t keep up with demand.”

一場牛油果大爆發(fā)隨之而來。1994年，美國人每人每年購買了一磅多這種水果——幾乎全部產(chǎn)自加利福尼亞的種植戶，他們的收獲季只有夏天。如今，這個數(shù)字已經(jīng)增長到了七磅。受不斷增長的拉丁裔群體和好萊塢明星對這種水果所含不飽和脂肪的宣傳(歌手麥莉·塞勒斯[Miley Cyrus]的胳膊上有一個牛油果文身)所推動，美國的牛油果狂熱逐年加劇。上個月的超級碗前幾周，美國人購買了約1350萬磅牛油果。(超級碗是美國最大的牛油果日，略微領(lǐng)先五月五日節(jié)[Cinco de Mayo]。)“這種增長讓所有人都很吃驚，”巴納德說，他的公司是世界上最大的牛油果分銷商。“我們真的手忙腳亂。我們每年的增長速度為10%到15%，但還是無法跟上需求。”

Donald Trump has often railed at Nafta as “the worst trade deal ever.” But his focus on the loss of United States manufacturing jobs — felt keenly in the auto and textile industries — misses one of Nafta’s far-reaching benefits: the huge lift it has given to agricultural trade and consumer satisfaction in all three countries. Under Nafta, avocados have led an influx of year-round Mexican produce that has filled the seasonal voids in United States grocery stores and changed the way Americans eat. The avocado boom has caused environmental damage — some of Michoacán’s pine forests have been thinned out for avocado orchards — but it has been good for Americans gorging on guacamole in wintertime and Mexican farmers fending off the urge to join the drug trade or immigrate to the United States. According to a 2016 study commissioned by a marketing group for buyers and producers of Mexican avocados, the avocado supply chain has also created nearly 19,000 jobs in the United States and added more than $2.2 billion to the gross national product.

唐納德·特朗普經(jīng)常指責《北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定》是“有史以來最糟糕的貿(mào)易協(xié)定”。但他關(guān)注的是美國制造業(yè)就業(yè)崗位的流失(尤其是汽車和紡織業(yè))，而忽略了該協(xié)定的一個深遠益處：它極大提升了這三個國家的農(nóng)業(yè)貿(mào)易和消費者滿意度。由于該協(xié)定，以牛油果為主的墨西哥農(nóng)產(chǎn)品一年四季出口到美國，填補了美國食品雜貨店的季節(jié)性空白，改變了美國人的飲食習慣。牛油果貿(mào)易的興旺造成了環(huán)境破壞——米卻肯州的一些松林被牛油果果園侵占，但它讓美國人得以在冬季盡情享受牛油果沙拉，幫助墨西哥農(nóng)民抵御加入毒品貿(mào)易或移民到美國的沖動。2016年，為墨西哥牛油果的消費者和生產(chǎn)者服務的一個營銷小組委托進行了一項研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)牛油果供應鏈在美國創(chuàng)造了近1.9萬個工作崗位，國民生產(chǎn)總值增加了22億美元。

Even California growers, once vociferous opponents of Mexican imports, are happy with the situation. Land and water are too scarce to expand their seasonal harvests — which are around 10 percent of Mexico’s annual production — but surging demand and prices have buoyed their businesses, too. “Avocados are Nafta’s shining star,” says Monica Ganley, an expert on Latin American trade and the founder of Quarterra, a consulting firm based in Buenos Aires. “But it’s important to remember that the benefits flow in both directions.” Under Nafta, United States agricultural exports to Mexico have expanded nearly fivefold, to $18 billion, with sales of American corn, soybeans and dairy products booming south of the border. “Trade is a multiplier, not a zero-sum game,” Ganley says. “We tend to overstate how much Mexico is dependent on the U.S. But American producers may have more to lose than Mexican producers if Nafta disappears.”

就連曾經(jīng)強烈反對墨西哥進口的加州種植者也對這種情況感到滿意。加州的土地和水太過稀缺，無法擴大季節(jié)性收成——他們的年產(chǎn)量大約是墨西哥的10%——但是高漲的需求和價格也提振了他們的生意。“牛油果是北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的明星，”布宜諾斯艾利斯咨詢公司Quarterra的創(chuàng)始人、拉丁美洲貿(mào)易專家莫妮卡·甘利(Monica Ganley)說。“但重要的是，要記住，好處是雙向的。”由于《北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定》，美國對墨西哥的農(nóng)業(yè)出口增長了近5倍，達到180億美元，美國的玉米、大豆和奶制品在邊境以南銷售旺盛。“貿(mào)易是一種倍增，不是零和博弈，”甘利說，“我們往往夸大了墨西哥對美國的依賴，但如果《北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定》被取消，那么，美國生產(chǎn)商的損失可能會比墨西哥生產(chǎn)商更沉重。”

Trump hasn’t killed Nafta yet. But as negotiations over a revamped agreement head into their eighth round, a trade war looms. The United States decision last month to impose steel and aluminum tariffs on most countries hangs over the talks, as do the planned trade sanctions against China. Trump offered temporary exemptions to Canada and Mexico, but only with the proviso that they remake Nafta to his liking. Even within the talks, avocado growers in Mexico and California worry that new anti-dumping duties proposed by the United States side could lead to a tit-for-tat retaliation that would harm both sides. “Once it starts,” Barnard asks, “where does it end?”

特朗普還沒有扼殺《北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定》。但關(guān)于修訂該協(xié)定的談判已進入第8輪，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)漸漸逼近。美國上個月決定對大多數(shù)國家征收鋼鋁關(guān)稅，還在計劃對中國進行貿(mào)易制裁——這些都籠罩著修訂談判。特朗普暫時豁免了加拿大和墨西哥的鋼鋁關(guān)稅，但前提是，他們要按照他的喜好對《北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定》進行修改。甚至在談判過程中，墨西哥和加州的牛油果種植者就開始擔心，美國提出的新反傾銷稅可能導致針鋒相對的報復行動，這將損害雙方的利益。“一旦開始，”巴納德問，“什么時候才能結(jié)束?”

So long as global demand keeps growing, though, the avocado seems almost impervious to upheaval at home and abroad. The violence in Michoacán, for example, has not curtailed the avocado industry’s goal of increasing exports to the United States by 15 percent this year. Nor would new tariffs necessarily stop Mexican avocado imports: The United States can’t sate its appetite for avocados elsewhere (no other producer is big enough), and the Mexicans have no other market so big and so near. The price of guacamole and avocado toast would go up again, but consumers already showed last year, during a spike in prices, that they might be willing to pay more. The bigger effect might be that avocado producers heighten their efforts in other developing markets, especially the one with most potential: China.

不過，只要全球需求持續(xù)增長，牛油果似乎基本上不受國內(nèi)外動蕩的影響。例如，米卻肯州的暴力事件并沒有影響牛油果行業(yè)今年向美國增加15%出口的目標。新關(guān)稅也不一定會阻止墨西哥的牛油果進口：其他地方的牛油果無法充分滿足美國的胃口(其他地方的生產(chǎn)量不夠大)，墨西哥也找不到其他如此龐大而又臨近的市場。牛油果醬和牛油果吐司的價格會再次上漲，但去年的價格上漲已經(jīng)表明，消費者可能愿意支付更高的價格。更大的影響可能是，牛油果生產(chǎn)商會加大在其他發(fā)展中市場的努力，尤其是潛力最大的市場：中國。

When I lived in Shanghai, I often bicycled to an open-air grocery store run by a woman everybody knew simply as the avocado lady. She was one of the first grocers in the city to carry what is known in Chinese as “butter fruit,” though her clients were mostly grateful expatriates like me or Chinese returning from abroad. Even on days of heavy storms or bitter cold, this hardy entrepreneur was always in her shop before dawn, wearing rubber boots and tallying prices with a pencil. I never learned her name, but last year, in an unnecessary bit of marketing, she hung a crudely painted sign — “The Avocado Lady” — in front of her store.

在上海住的時候，我經(jīng)常騎自行車去一個露天食雜店。食雜店的老板是個女人，大家都叫她牛油果阿姨。她是上海最早賣牛油果的食雜店老板之一，但她的客戶主要是像我一樣心存感激的外國人，或是從國外回來的中國人。哪怕是狂風暴雨或嚴寒刺骨，這位頑強的企業(yè)家總是天不亮就到店里，穿著橡膠靴，用鉛筆計算價格。我一直不知道她的名字，但去年，她進行了一點不必要的營銷，在食雜店前面掛了一個涂刷粗糙的牌子，上面寫著“The Avocado Lady”。

A decade ago, avocados were virtually unknown in China. The country imported only two tons in 2010; last year, it brought in 32,100 tons. The trend accelerated in 2017 when KFC ran an ad campaign for its avocado wraps called “Green Is Going Red” (to be hot, that is). It featured a pop star sporting an avocado mustache. The wraps didn’t sell so well, but the ads made avocados cool for China’s millennials.

十年前，牛油果在中國幾乎不為人所知。2010年，中國只進口了兩噸牛油果。去年，中國進口了32100噸。2017年，這一趨勢加速。當時，肯德基(KFC)投放了名為“一綠爆紅”的廣告，宣傳它的牛油果墨西哥卷。廣告上，一個流行明星留著牛油果小胡子。肯德基的墨西哥卷賣得并不太好，但這些廣告讓中國的千禧一代覺得牛油果很酷。

Mexico was China’s largest supplier of avocados until last year, when it was surpassed by Chile. (Peru is moving in quickly, too.) In the future, the competition may come from China itself. With state backing, some Chinese businessmen are developing avocado plantations in the southern province of Guangxi. If they can come up with an avocado that matches the Latin American variety, at a lower cost, then the global market could shift.

墨西哥一直是中國最大的牛油果供應國，直到去年被智利反超。(秘魯也在迅速追趕。)未來，競爭可能來自中國國內(nèi)。在國家的支持下，一些中國商人正在中國南方的廣西省開發(fā)牛油果種植園。如果他們能以較低的成本種出與拉丁美的品種不相上下的牛油果，全球市場可能會發(fā)生變化。

For now, though, China is adjusting. Most avocados sold there are hard and green — often to the confusion of the uninitiated. To solve this problem, Barnard’s Mission Produce built China’s first “ripe center” in Shanghai last year, with another to follow in Shenzhen next year. And Barnard is dreaming big. “If I could put four avocado chunks in every bowl of noodle soup in China,” he muses, “we wouldn’t have enough avocados in the world.” Only Mexican production would come close. And who knows? If American trade policy lurches toward a trade war, the farmers under the volcanoes in Michoacán might be eager to start sending their harvests to China instead.

但目前，中國正在調(diào)整。中國賣的牛油果大多又硬又綠，這常常讓外行感到困惑。為了解決這個問題，巴納德的使命生產(chǎn)公司(Mission Produce)去年在上海建立了中國首個“催熟中心”，明年還將在深圳再建一個。巴納德理想遠大。“如果在中國的每一碗湯面里放四塊牛油果，”他想，“全世界的牛油果都不夠。”只有墨西哥的產(chǎn)量接近。而且誰知道呢?如果美國的貿(mào)易政策轉(zhuǎn)向貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，米卻肯州火山下的農(nóng)民可能會迫不及待地開始把他們的收成運往中國。