今年奧斯卡哪部影片更出彩？

‘Bombshell’

《爆炸新聞》

In its favor: If voters want to send a message about #MeToo, they’ll have the perfect opportunity to do so with “Bombshell,” which tackles the fall of the Fox News head Roger Ailes and the women at the conservative news channel who accused him of harassment. Oscar voters like to reward a film with real-world relevance, and Theron, who plays the anchor Megyn Kelly, and her “Bombshell” cast have mounted a “conversation tour” meant to encourage discussion of social issues after screenings.

支持的理由：如果投票員想就“#我也是”(MeToo)表達一種態(tài)度，《爆炸新聞》將是一個絕佳的機會。該片致力于呈現(xiàn)福克斯新聞總裁羅杰·艾爾斯(Roger Ailes)的倒臺以及指控他性騷擾的保守派新聞頻道女員工。奧斯卡投票員喜歡與現(xiàn)實世界息息相關的電影。扮演梅根·凱利的塞隆和其他《爆炸新聞》的演員們搭建了一個“對話之旅”，旨在上映后鼓勵社會議題的討論。

Working against it: Though the academy has taken great pains to diversify its membership in recent years, a movie with two or more women in the lead hasn’t won best picture since “Chicago” in 2003. And will liberal Oscar voters really be eager to reward a movie that makes flawed heroines of Fox News personalities?

反對的理由：盡管學院近年來為成員多元化付出了極大的努力，但在2003年《芝加哥》之后，沒有一部由兩名以上女性擔任主角的電影獲得最佳影片。再說，這是一個將福克斯新聞女主播塑造成有缺陷的英雄的電影，自由派的投票員真的很樂意投給它嗎?

‘The Farewell’

《別告訴她》

In its favor: This tender dramedy about Chinese family members who keep their grandmother in the dark about her terminal illness was a specialty-film breakout this summer. The movie’s lead, Awkwafina, is suddenly everywhere after her star-making performance in “Crazy Rich Asians,” and even Zhao Shuzhen, who so wonderfully plays the grandma, has left her native China to visit the United States for the first time and campaign.

支持的理由：這是一部關于中國家庭故事的溫情喜劇。在這部暑假躥紅的特殊類型片中，家人向祖母隱瞞了她得絕癥的事情。電影的主角奧卡菲娜(Awkwafina)自從《摘金奇緣》(Crazy Rich Asians)出道成名后走紅。出色地扮演了祖母的演員趙淑珍，甚至首次離開出生地中國赴美宣傳。

Working against it: Hotshot distributor A24 has better luck with best-picture nominees like “Moonlight” when they’re released in the traditional fall corridor. Neither of the company’s early contenders from last year, “Eighth Grade” and “First Reformed,” ultimately punched its way into the best-picture race. Will “The Farewell”?

反對的理由：當紅發(fā)行商A24在《月光男孩》這樣傳統(tǒng)秋季檔期上映的最佳影片提名上有更好的斬獲。該公司之前的參選影片，去年的《八年級》和《第一歸正會》都沒有闖入最佳影片的角逐?！秳e告訴她》能嗎?

‘The Irishman’

《愛爾蘭人》

In its favor: No filmmaker in contention this year has as prolific an Oscar record as Scorsese, who has directed eight best-picture nominees. “The Irishman” will almost certainly be his ninth, and it’s an elegiac capper to the crime dramas he is best known for, with memorable performances from Robert De Niro, Al Pacino and Joe Pesci. With strong contributions from craftspeople that will warrant recognition in an abundance of categories, this could be our double-digit nomination leader.

支持的理由：在今年角逐的電影導演中，沒人能像斯科塞斯這樣，在競逐奧斯卡上有如此豐富的經(jīng)驗——他指導過八部獲奧斯卡最佳影片提名的電影。幾乎可以肯定，《愛爾蘭人》將是第九部，由羅伯特·德尼羅(Robert De Niro)，艾爾·帕西諾(Al Pacino)和喬·佩西(Joe Pesci)精彩出演的影片，將會是斯科塞斯拿手的犯罪片題材的收山之作。得益于強大的制作團隊陣容，該片將在眾多評獎類別中獲得認可，可能會是雙位數(shù)的提名數(shù)量領先者。

Working against it: Scorsese has recently made headlines for his willingness to call out Marvel’s movie-theater domination, arguing that there should be more variety onscreen, as well as more recognizable human stakes. Academy members are likely to agree with that, but “The Irishman” is a Netflix production, and many old-school voters are every bit as wary of that streaming service as they are of comic-book spectaculars.

反對的理由：最近斯科塞斯成了新聞熱點，因為他主動站出來批評漫威對影院的占領。他認為電影應有多樣性，以及更多可感受的人性。學院成員可能是同意這一點的，但《愛爾蘭人》是Netflix制作的，許多老派投票員對于流媒體服務的警惕和他們對漫畫電影的態(tài)度差不多。

‘Jojo Rabbit’

《喬喬兔》

In its favor: Taika Waititi’s daring World War II comedy won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival, a trophy that has gone to the best-picture victors “Green Book,” “12 Years a Slave” and “The King’s Speech.” “Jojo Rabbit” is set in an era that Oscar often likes to reward, and its irreverent sense of humor sets it apart from the current pack.

支持的理由：二戰(zhàn)題材，泰卡·懷蒂提(Taika Waititi)這部大膽的喜劇在多倫多國際電影節(jié)上獲得了人民選擇獎。該獎曾授予像《綠皮書》、《為奴十二年》和《國王的演講》這樣的金像獎得主?！秵虇掏谩返谋尘皶r代是金像獎偏愛的年代設定，刻薄的幽默令其脫穎而出。

Working against it: With far-right sentiment rising around the world, not every voter will embrace the comic treatment of an eager Nazi youth who imagines Hitler is his imaginary friend. And while “Jojo Rabbit” becomes more emotional by its end, satires don’t often make it to the top of the Oscar heap.

反對的理由：隨著世界各地極右翼情緒的興起，不是每個投票員都會接受對一個熱切的納粹青年的喜劇調(diào)侃——在他的幻想中，他把希特勒當作假想朋友。盡管《喬喬兔》在結(jié)尾時令人動容，但諷刺作品通常不會在奧斯卡獎中勝出。

‘Joker’

《小丑》

In its favor: “Joker” started the season by snagging the prestigious Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival, and this comic-book character study will soon gross $1 billion worldwide, a number that is all the more remarkable since it eschews the action scenes and computer-generated spectacle of its Bat-film brethren. Joaquin Phoenix’s transformative performance in the title role is widely admired in the industry, and a best-picture campaign is always bolstered if its star has a strong shot at winning best actor.

支持的理由：基于漫畫人物的《小丑》以奪取威尼斯電影節(jié)金獅獎開啟了這一季，影片的全球票房即將突破十億美元。與它的兄弟片“蝙蝠俠”系列不同的是，影片避開了打斗場面或電腦特效，這就讓它的票房成就愈發(fā)值得稱道。華金·菲尼克斯擔任主角，他在片中展現(xiàn)全新面目的表演在業(yè)界廣受贊譽。當片中演員是最佳男演員獎的強勁選手時，對影片的最佳影片獎角逐從來都是一個幫助。

Working against it: Though the film has drawn huge audiences, it’s no one’s idea of a conventional crowd-pleaser, and it could hit a wall with Oscar voters who reject its downbeat, violent vibe. And while “Joker” has more in common with vintage Scorsese films like “Taxi Driver” than with Marvel’s “Black Panther” — a best-picture contender last season — it’s still a comic-book movie, and that type of film has never taken Oscar’s top prize.

反對的理由：盡管吸引了大批觀眾，影片不是傳統(tǒng)意義上的大眾電影，其悲觀、暴力的氣質(zhì)可能會遭到奧斯卡投票員的拒絕。同時，雖然和去年最佳影片提名的漫威影片《黑豹》比起來，《小丑》更像《出租車司機》這樣的經(jīng)典斯科塞斯電影，但它始終是一個漫畫電影，而此類電影從未獲得過奧斯卡最高獎項。

‘Little Women’

《小婦人》

In its favor: Greta Gerwig’s first big directorial effort, “Lady Bird” (2017), scored five nominations, but the film went home empty-handed. If voters want the chance to make it up to her, “Little Women” presents a compelling case and is stacked with Oscar favorites like Ronan, Laura Dern and Meryl Streep.

支持的理由：格蕾塔·葛韋格的第一部導演大作——2017年的《飛鳥小姐》——獲得了5項提名，卻空手而歸。如果投票員們想彌補她的遺憾，由羅南，勞拉·德恩(Laura Dern)和梅麗爾·斯特里普(Meryl Streep)等奧斯卡寵兒們出演的《小婦人》是一個吸引人的選擇。

Working against it: Though the 1933 take on “Little Women” was nominated for best picture, this is a story that has been told numerous times in the movies and on television, and remakes have almost never taken the top prize. Gerwig makes some bold structural changes to her adaptation of the Louisa May Alcott novel, but will they be enough?

反對的理由：盡管1933年拍攝的《小婦人》獲得最佳影片提名，這個故事已經(jīng)在影視劇中被重復講述了無數(shù)次，而翻拍幾乎從未拿過大獎。葛韋格在路易莎·梅·奧爾科特(Louisa May Alcott)原著的基礎上進行了大刀闊斧的改動，但這樣就夠了嗎?

‘Marriage Story’

《婚姻故事》(Marriage Story)

In its favor: Noah Baumbach’s film about a family navigating divorce is almost certain to score nominations for its leads, Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson, and for the supporting actress Dern, who steals the show as Johansson’s clever lawyer. The smart, dialogue-driven script is considered the front-runner for the original-screenplay Oscar, and though Baumbach faces heavy competition in that category from Tarantino and Bong Joon Ho (“Parasite”), the road to best picture almost always includes a screenplay victory.

支持的理由：諾亞·鮑姆巴赫(Noah Baumbach)這部講述一個家庭離婚的電影幾乎肯定會獲得提名，包括主演亞當·德賴弗(Adam Driver)和斯嘉麗·約翰遜(Scarlett Johansson)，以及女配角鄧恩(Dern)，她在片中飾演約翰遜的聰明律師，搶盡風頭。這部聰明的、通過對白推進的劇本被認為是奧斯卡原創(chuàng)劇本獎的領跑者，盡管鮑姆巴赫在這一獎項上面臨著來自塔倫蒂諾和奉俊昊(《寄生蟲》)的激烈競爭，但通往最佳影片的道路幾乎總是包括劇本的勝利。

Working against it: “Marriage Story” recalls human-size, family dramedies of a certain era, like the best-picture winners “Kramer vs. Kramer” and “Terms of Endearment,” but these days, Oscar voters tend to prefer their winners big. This is a quieter, more thoughtful movie than most of the flashy films vying for best picture, and its fans will need to stay vocal.

反對的理由：《婚姻故事》讓人想起某個時代普通人的家庭喜劇，比如獲得過最佳影片的《克萊默夫婦》(Kramer vs. Kramer)和《母女情深》(Terms of Endearment)，但如今，奧斯卡評委們偏愛的是非同尋常的故事。這是一部比大多數(shù)爭奪最佳影片獎的浮華電影更沉靜、更有思想的電影，它的影迷需要為它繼續(xù)發(fā)聲。

‘Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood’

《好萊塢往事》(Once Upon a Time In Hollywood)

In its favor: Oscar voters love films about show business, and this is a love letter to the strivers who make a living in Hollywood. As characters played by Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt struggle to adapt to changes in their industry, members of the academy might similarly view a vote for “Hollywood,” the rare original film to make a mint in theaters this summer, as a bulwark against the shift to streaming. They may also seize the chance to give Tarantino the best-director and best-picture Oscars he has never won before, especially because he has threatened retirement from filmmaking.

支持的理由：奧斯卡投票者喜愛關于娛樂業(yè)的電影，這是一封寫給在好萊塢謀生的奮斗者的情書。在萊昂納多·迪卡普里奧(Leonardo DiCaprio)和布拉德·皮特(Brad Pitt)飾演的角色努力適應電影行業(yè)的變化之時，奧斯卡獎的評委們可能同樣會把投票給這樣一部今夏在影院大獲成功的罕見的原創(chuàng)電影，將其視為抵制電影向流媒體轉(zhuǎn)變的一道防御工事。他們可能還會抓住機會，把塔倫蒂諾從未獲得過的奧斯卡最佳導演和最佳影片獎頒給他，尤其是因為他威脅要退出電影界。

Working against it: Over the past 20 years, only two summer movies have taken home Oscar’s top prize, and “Hollywood” will have to successfully reintroduce itself this winter if voters are to keep it in mind. So far, the film’s Phase 2 campaign has been awfully muted.

反對的理由：在過去的20年里，只有兩部夏季電影捧回了奧斯卡的最高獎項，而《好萊塢往事》將不得不在這個冬天成功地重新自我推介，如果想讓投票者記住它的話。到目前為止，這部電影的第二階段宣傳一直非常低調(diào)。

‘Parasite’

《寄生蟲》

In its favor: Bong’s class parable about a family of scammers who work their way into a wealthy clan’s good graces has become this year’s foreign-language sensation. After winning the Palme d’Or at Cannes in May, the darkly funny “Parasite” has won over general audiences, too, and is on track for a worldwide total of more than $100 million. With its theme of income inequality, “Parasite” feels of the moment, which will help it stand out amid a crop of period films, and it will benefit from an ever-more-international pool of Oscar voters who very nearly lifted “Roma” to the top prize last year.

支持的理由：奉俊昊的階級寓言講述騙子一家如何通過自己的努力獲得一個富裕家族的好感，成為今年引起轟動的外語片。在今年5月贏得戛納電影節(jié)金棕櫚獎之后，黑色幽默的《寄生蟲》也贏得了大眾的喜愛，全球總票房有望超過1億美元。以收入不平等為主題的《寄生蟲》給人一種當下的感覺，這將有助于它在一大批古裝片中脫穎而出，而且它將受益于越來越多的國際奧斯卡投票者，去年他們幾乎把《羅馬》(Roma)推上了最高獎項。

Working against it: No foreign-language film has ever won best picture. Though “Parasite” could make a splash in several Oscar categories, including picture, director, international film, screenplay and production design, an acting nod for any member of its ensemble may be harder to come by. Movies rarely win best picture without a single acting nomination, and the ones that do win tend to be season-long front-runners like “Slumdog Millionaire” and “Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.”

反對的理由：沒有一部外語片獲得過最佳影片獎。盡管《寄生蟲》可能會在幾個奧斯卡獎項上惹人注目，包括最佳影片、導演、國際電影、劇本和制作設計，但演員陣容要獲得一點表演認可可能比較困難。很少有電影在沒有一次表演提名的情況下獲得最佳影片獎，而獲得最佳影片獎的往往是《貧民窟的百萬富翁》(Slumdog Millionaire)和《指環(huán)王：王者歸來》(Lord of the Rings: the Return of the King)等領跑一整季的影片。

‘The Two Popes’

《兩代教宗》(The Two Popes)

In its favor: This papal two-hander, which stars Anthony Hopkins as Pope Benedict XVI and Jonathan Pryce as his skeptical successor, Pope Francis, has been racking up audience awards at festivals around the country. And though Netflix has chosen to position “The Two Popes” as a drama for the Golden Globes, the comic marriage of ideological opposites recalls “Green Book” and “The King’s Speech.”

支持的理由：這出由安東尼·霍普金斯(Anthony Hopkins)飾演本篤十六世(Pope Benedict XVI)、喬納森·普賴斯(Jonathan Pryce)飾演心存懷疑的繼任者方濟各(Pope Francis)的雙人戲，在全國各地的電影節(jié)上不斷獲得觀眾獎。盡管Netflix給《兩代教宗》的定位是競逐金球獎的劇情片，但意識形態(tài)對立方的逗趣結(jié)合讓人想到《綠皮書》(Green Book)和《國王的演講》(The King’s Speech)。

Working against it: Despite all those prizes, the film didn’t even make the top three when it came to the prescient People’s Choice Award in Toronto. Can “The Two Popes” stand out in a more crowded field, especially with Netflix already supporting other strong contenders?

反對的理由：盡管獲得了諸多獎項，但在具有預見性的多倫多“人民選擇獎”上，這部電影甚至連前三名都沒能進入?！秲纱套凇纺芊裨诟偁幐蛹ち业念I域脫穎而出呢，尤其是考慮到Netflix已經(jīng)在支持其他強有力的競爭者?