迪拜世界暫停償債 打擊地區(qū)信心

著駱駝的迪拜當?shù)厝耍h處高聳的建筑物是正在建設(shè)的迪拜塔

迪拜政府周三宣布，將負責王牌公司迪拜世界(Dubai World)的重組，并要求債權(quán)人接受延期還款。次日，歐洲和亞洲各地的投資者拋售銀行類股，推高了迪拜違約保險的價格。

Investors sold banking stocks across Europe and Asia and jacked up the price of insuring against Dubai defaults, a day after the government said it would take charge of restructuring its corporate flagship, Dubai World, and asked creditors to accept delayed payments.

迪拜政府周三宣布，將暫停償債6個月，令投資者和分析人士大吃一驚。此前數(shù)月，政府官員的積極舉措和言辭一直都在暗示迪拜和阿聯(lián)酋政府愿意介入、填補融資窟窿。

A Wednesday announcement of a six-month standstill in debt payments took investors and analysts by surprise. It followed months of positive moves and comments from government officials suggesting Dubai and the federal government of the United Arab Emirates were willing to step in to plug financing holes.

惠譽國際評級(Fitch Ratings)駐倫敦信貸分析師?？怂?Richard Fox)說，公告產(chǎn)生的最大負面影響是嚴重動搖了投資者對阿聯(lián)酋和這一地區(qū)的信心，人們現(xiàn)在會對政府的支持產(chǎn)生質(zhì)疑。

'The most negative effect of [the] announcement is a major shock to confidence in the U.A.E. and the region more generally,' said Richard Fox, a credit analyst at Fitch Ratings in London. 'People will now question government support.'

在國際銀行家和分析人士紛紛評估全球在迪拜的風險敞口之際，迪拜世界周四說，公司旗下的盈利港口子公司DP World將不包括在重組中。

Amid a scramble by international bankers and analysts to assess global exposure to Dubai, the company said Thursday that its cash-generating ports division, DP World, wouldn't be included in the restructuring.

該公司的高管和代表沒有回復(fù)記者的置評請求。據(jù)Zawya Dow Jones報導，迪拜財政委員會主席Sheik Ahmed bin Saeed al Maktoum周四在一份聲明中說，我們對迪拜世界的干預(yù)是進行了認真計劃的，反映了該公司的具體財務(wù)狀況。他說，我們尤其理解市場和債權(quán)人的擔憂。不過我們必須進行干預(yù)，原因是有必要采取決定性的行動來應(yīng)對該公司特殊的債務(wù)負擔。他承諾下周會公布更多細節(jié)。

Company executives and representatives didn't respond to requests for comment. Sheik Ahmed bin Saeed al Maktoum, head of Dubai's finance committee, said in a statement Thursday that 'our intervention in Dubai World was carefully planned and reflects its specific financial position,' according to Zawya Dow Jones. 'We understand the concerns of the market and the creditors in particular. However, we have had to intervene because of the need to take decisive action to address its particular debt burden,' he said, promising more details next week.

部分受投資者對銀行在迪拜風險敞口的擔憂所拖累，歐洲和亞洲股市下挫。周四，波斯灣地區(qū)股市因開齋節(jié)閉市，美國股市因感恩節(jié)閉市。道瓊斯歐洲斯托克600指數(shù)下挫3.3%，倫敦富時100指數(shù)跌3.2%。由于投資者紛紛涌入美元尋求避風港，亞洲匯市美元下跌后反彈。

European and Asian stock markets fell, weighed down partly by concerns about bank exposure to Dubai. Markets were closed across the Persian Gulf for Eid holiday, and in the U.S. for Thanksgiving. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index fell 3.3%, while London's FTSE 100 index was down 3.2%. The U.S. dollar rebounded after slumping in Asia, as investors flocked to the currency as a haven.

迪拜暫停償債的要求對國際銀行來說是個更令人不安的情況，這些銀行近年來轉(zhuǎn)向富產(chǎn)石油的中東尋求收入來源。地方和國際銀行都仍在“舔舐”今年沙特兩家大型家族性企業(yè)集團的債務(wù)問題造成的“傷口”；這兩家集團欠100多家放貸機構(gòu)的錢，保守估計有150億美元。

Dubai's standstill request is one more troubling development for international banks, which turned in recent years to the oil-rich Middle East as a source of income. Both local and international banks also are licking their wounds from the debt troubles this year of two big family-run Saudi Arabian conglomerates, which owe more than 100 lenders a conservatively estimated billion.

據(jù)一位知情人士說，迪拜世界正在爭取延期償付利息6個月。據(jù)估計，這期間它可能與債權(quán)人協(xié)商出削減債務(wù)的重組協(xié)議，債務(wù)包括將于未來18個月到期的200億美元貸款和債券。這位知情人士說，如果放貸機構(gòu)不同意，迪拜世界將在這些票據(jù)上違約。

Dubai World is seeking a six-month moratorium on interest payments, a person familiar with the matter said. During that time, it could negotiate with creditors a restructuring that would pare liabilities, which include billion of loans and bonds coming due in the next 18 months, according to estimates. If the lenders don't agree, Dubai World will default on the notes, the person said.

知情人士說，在迪拜世界敞口最大的銀行是阿布扎比商業(yè)銀行(Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank)和Emirate NBD PJSC。記者周四暫時無法聯(lián)系到這兩家銀行的高管發(fā)表置評。

The banks with the greatest exposure to Dubai World are Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Emirate NBD PJSC, people familiar with the matter said. Executives at the two banks weren't available for comment Thursday.

這位知情人士說，在迪拜世界有較大風險敞口的國際銀行包括：英國的蘇格蘭皇家銀行集團(Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC)、匯豐控股(HSBC Holdings PLC)、巴克萊集團(Barclays PLC)、萊斯銀行(Lloyds Banking Group PLC)、渣打銀行(Standard Chartered PLC)和荷蘭國際集團(ING Groep NV)。

Among the international banks that have large exposure are the U.K.'s Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, HSBC Holdings PLC, Barclays PLC, Lloyds Banking Group PLC, Standard Chartered PLC and ING Groep NV of the Netherlands, the person said.

另外一位知情人士說，蘇格蘭皇家銀行向迪拜世界提供的貸款約有10億美元。

RBS has lent roughly billion to Dubai World, another person said.

知情人士說，巴克萊在迪拜世界的風險敞口約為2億美元，不過都采取了有效的對沖措施。

Barclays's exposure to Dubai World is roughly 0 million, and that exposure is effectively hedged, according to people close to the matter.

盡管迪拜的公告出人意料，知情人士卻說，他們?nèi)哉J為迪拜或相鄰的酋長國阿布扎比不會任外國債權(quán)人陷入困境，冒進一步損害形像的風險，而是會就一項合理的方案達成一致。

Despite the surprise, people close to the banks said they still believe Dubai, or its neighboring emirate, Abu Dhabi, won't risk tarnishing their images further by leaving foreign creditors in the lurch, and will agree to a reasonable plan.

投資者則沒有這么肯定。英國銀行類股周四大幅下挫；巴克萊、匯豐、渣打銀行和蘇格蘭皇家銀行股票均暴跌。

Investors weren't as certain. U.K. bank stocks took a beating Thursday, with Barclays, HSBC, Standard Chartered and RBS all tumbling.

標準普爾(Standard & Poor's)將四家迪拜銀行列入負面觀察名單，原因是這四家銀行在迪拜世界的風險敞口。據(jù)信貸數(shù)據(jù)提供商CMA說，迪拜違約保險的價格從周二的每1,000萬美元債券年保費31.8萬美元升至54.7萬美元。

Standard & Poor's put four Dubai's banks on credit watch because of their exposure to Dubai World. The cost of insuring against a Dubai default rose to 7,000 a year per million in debt from 8,000 on Tuesday, according to CMA, a credit-data provider.

持有將于下個月到期的、迪拜世界房地產(chǎn)子公司Nakheel發(fā)行的35億美元伊斯蘭債券的投資者將面臨最緊迫的威脅。Nakheel債券價格周三消息發(fā)布前為票面價格的110%，之后跌到約70%。

Holders of a .5 billion sukuk, or Islamic bond, issued by Dubai World property subsidiary Nakheel, due next month, face the most immediate threat. Nakheel bonds dropped from about 110 cents on the dollar before the news Wednesday to about 70 cents.

投資者認為，來自阿聯(lián)酋的現(xiàn)金將給迪拜充足的能力償還Nakheel債券，迪拜也發(fā)出信號，表示愿意支持本國的公司實體。

Investors assumed that the cash coming from the United Arab Emirates would give Dubai ample ability to pay off the Nakheel bond, and Dubai also had sent signals that it was willing to support its corporate entities.

觀察人士說，現(xiàn)在的問題是迪拜采取的舉措所處的大環(huán)境不明了，令投資者難以評估債券和迪拜自身整體信用水平所面臨的風險。

A problem now, observers said, is that the circumstances behind Dubai's moves are murky, making it hard to gauge the exact risk to the bonds and Dubai's own general creditworthiness.

巴克萊資本(Barclays Capital)駐倫敦分析師沃星頓(Huw Worthington)說，在我們對問題的解決辦法有清楚的想法之前，不確定性可能還會持續(xù)一段時間。

The uncertainty may drag on for some time yet, before we have a clear idea as to how issues will be resolved,' said Huw Worthington, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.