全球航空業(yè)預計到2024年才能恢復

Global air travel won't recover from the Covid-19 crisis until 2024, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced Tuesday.

國際航空運輸協(xié)會周二(7月28日)宣布，全球航空業(yè)要到2024年才能從新冠肺炎危機中恢復。

That's a year later than the airline body's previous projection.

這比該機構之前的預測晚了一年。

The body, which represents 290 airlines, blamed the sluggish recovery on a number of factors, including a lack of consumer confidence, the decline in business travel, and fresh coronavirus spikes in the United States and elsewhere.

該機構將航空業(yè)復蘇乏力歸咎于一系列因素，包括消費者信心不足、商務旅行減少以及美國和其他地區(qū)新冠疫情重新抬頭。該機構代表290家航空公司。

The revised baseline forecast is that international passenger traffic will drop 55% in 2020, compared to 2019. Back in April, the IATA had predicted the drop to be just 46%.

修正后的基線預測是，2020年國際客運量將比2019年下降55%。今年4月，該機構曾預測下降幅度僅為46%。

Passenger numbers are expected to rise 62% next year, but will still be down almost 30% compared to pre-Covid times, with a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels not on the cards until four years from now.

根據(jù)該機構預計，明年的航空客運量將增長62%，但仍比疫情之前下降約30%，可能需要四年才能全面恢復到疫情之前的水平。

"Passenger traffic hit bottom in April, but the strength of the upturn has been very weak," said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA's director general and CEO in a statement. "What improvement we have seen has been domestic flying."

該機構理事長兼首席執(zhí)行官亞歷山大·德朱尼亞克在一份聲明中表示：“客運量在4月份觸底，但回暖力度一直很弱。我們看到的改善來自國內航空。”

Unsurprisingly, short-haul travel is expected to recover faster than long-haul -- due to passenger comfort levels, but also because international markets remain largely closed.

不出所料，短途旅行預計將比長途旅行恢復得更快——一方面是由于乘客的舒適度，另一方面也是因為國際航線市場仍基本關閉。

"Consumer confidence is depressed and not helped by the UK's weekend decision to impose a blanket quarantine on all travelers returning from Spain," said de Juniac.

德朱尼亞克說：“英國上周末決定對所有從西班牙回來的旅客實行全面隔離，消費者信心受到打擊。”

 

 

The British government made a surprise U-turn on its UK-Spain travel corridor on Saturday, reinstating with immediate effect its 14-day quarantine for all travelers arriving from the popular tourist destination, following a rise in coronavirus cases in the country.

在西班牙新冠肺炎確診病例數(shù)量上升后，英國政府上周六對來自西班牙旅客的入境政策出現(xiàn)180度大轉彎，立即恢復對所有從該熱門旅游目的地抵達的旅客實施14天隔離。

Many British holidaymakers -- who'd jetted off shortly after schools broke up for summer -- were caught out by the decision. British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab defended the move, telling Sky News that it "took the decision as swiftly as we could, and we can't apologize for doing so."

許多英國度假者在學校放暑假后不久就乘飛機離開，他們都被這一決定搞得心煩意亂。英國外交大臣多米尼克·拉布為這一舉動進行了辯護，他對天空新聞表示，英國“以最快的速度做出了這個決定，我們不能為此道歉。”

In terms of countries' domestic traffic, China's airlines are leading the recovery, with traffic down 35.5% in June compared to the 2019 period, up from a 46.3% decline in May.

在各國國內客運量方面，中國航空公司引領復蘇，6月份客運量同比下降35.5%，低于5月份46.3%的降幅。

The IATA says that scientific advances in fighting Covid-19, including the development of a successful vaccine, could allow for a speedier recovery. But for now, the future is looking bleak.

國際航空運輸協(xié)會表示，在抗擊新冠肺炎方面取得的科學進展，包括疫苗成功研制，可能會讓航空業(yè)更快復蘇。但目前來看前景不樂觀。

"In many parts of the world infections are still rising," said IATA's de Juniac. "All of this points to a longer recovery period and more pain for the industry and the global economy."

國際航空運輸協(xié)會的德朱尼亞克說：“在世界許多地方，感染人數(shù)仍在上升。所有這些都表明，航空業(yè)和全球經濟將面臨更長的復蘇期，也將承受更多痛苦。”

With airlines struggling financially, governments will need to continue relief measures to stop carriers going under, said the airline body.

該機構表示，隨著航空公司陷入財務困境，各國政府將需要繼續(xù)采取救助措施，以防止航空公司破產。

"Summer -- our industry's busiest season -- is passing by rapidly," said de Juniac. He said that there was "little chance for an upswing in international air travel unless governments move quickly and decisively to find alternatives to border closures, confidence-destroying stop-start re-openings and demand-killing quarantine."

德朱尼亞克說：“夏天，航空業(yè)最繁忙的季節(jié)，正在迅速過去。除非各國政府迅速果斷地采取行動，尋找邊界關閉、破壞信心的斷斷續(xù)續(xù)的重新開放和扼殺需求的隔離措施之外的替代方案，否則國際航空旅行復蘇的機會微乎其微。”