如果疫苗不能盡快研制，美國的社會距離可能得持續(xù)到2022年

如果疫苗不能盡快研制，美國的社會距離可能得持續(xù)到2022年

This may be the new normal for quite a while.

這可能是相當長一段時間內(nèi)的新常態(tài)。

The US may have to endure social distancing measures -- such as stay-at-home orders and school closures -- until 2022. researchers projected on Tuesday. That is, unless, a vaccine becomes quickly available.

研究人員周二預測，美國可能不得不忍受社會距離措施，直到2022年，比如在居家令和停課。除非能迅速研制出疫苗。

The team at the Harvard School of Public Health used what's known about Covid-19 and other coronaviruses to create possible scenarios of the current pandemic.

哈佛大學公共衛(wèi)生學院的研究小組利用已知的Covid-19和其他冠狀病毒，創(chuàng)造了當前大流行的可能情景。

"Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available," they wrote in their report. "Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024."

他們在報告中寫道：“除非重癥監(jiān)護能力大幅提高，或者有治療或疫苗可用，否則間歇性的社會距離措施可能持續(xù)到2022年。”即使在(病毒)明顯消除的情況下，也應(yīng)保持對SARS-CoV-2的監(jiān)測，因為傳染病可能最遲在2024年重新出現(xiàn)。”

The Harvard team's projections also indicate that the virus would come roaring back fairly quickly once restrictions were lifted.

哈佛研究小組的預測還表明，一旦解除限制，病毒將迅速卷土重來。

"If intermittent distancing is the approach that's chosen, it may be necessary to do it for several years, which is obviously a very long time," Dr. Marc Lipsitch, an author on the study and an epidemiology professor at the Harvard School of Public Health, told reporters.

哈佛大學公共衛(wèi)生學院的流行病學教授、該研究的作者馬克·利普西奇博士告訴記者，“如果選擇間歇性地保持距離的方法，那么可能需要持續(xù)好幾年，這顯然是一段很長的時間。”

Another important factor: Whether people become immune to the new coronavirus after they have been infected. That's not yet known.

另一個重要因素是:人們在感染新冠狀病毒后是否會產(chǎn)生免疫。這還不清楚。

Potential challenges include finding a reliable test to determine who has antibodies for the coronavirus, establishing the level of immunity conferred by previous infection and how long it lasts, and the capacity of overstretched health systems to carry out reliable, widespread antibody tests in the general population.

潛在的挑戰(zhàn)包括找到一種可靠的檢測方法來確定誰有冠狀病毒抗體，確定先前感染所產(chǎn)生的免疫水平及其持續(xù)時間，以及過度緊張的衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)在普通人群中進行可靠、廣泛的抗體檢測的能力。

The study researchers say they are aware that such prolonged distancing, even if intermittent, would likely have "profoundly negative economic, social, and educational consequences."

研究人員表示，他們意識到，這種持續(xù)的社會距離，即使是間歇性的，也可能會“對經(jīng)濟、社會和教育產(chǎn)生深遠的負面影響”。

They hope their research will help identify likely trajectories of the epidemic under alternative approaches, identify complementary ways to fight it, and to spur further thinking about ways to get the pandemic under control.

他們希望他們的研究將有助于在其他方法下確定這種流行病的可能軌跡，確定防治這種流行病的補充方法，并促使人們進一步思考如何控制這種流行病。

Though coronavirus cases in the US have been soaring, social distancing appears to be effective.

盡管美國的冠狀病毒病例一直在飆升，但保持社會距離似乎是有效的。

Social distancing is "one of the most powerful weapons" against COVID-19. said Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

美國疾病控制與預防中心主任羅伯特·雷德菲爾德說，與他人保持距離是對付COVID-19的“最有力武器之一”。

"If we can just maximize that social distancing, we can limit this virus's ability," he said earlier this month.

“如果我們能最大限度地擴大這種社會距離，我們就能限制這種病毒的能力，”他本月早些時候說。

States across the country have issued stay-at-home orders, allowing only for essential errands or tasks.

全國各州都發(fā)布了“居家令”，只允許執(zhí)行基本的差事或任務(wù)。

Penalties for breaking the order vary by state. In Maine, the penalty for breaking the order can be up to six months in jail and up to a $1.000 fine.

各州對破壞秩序的處罰各不相同。在緬因州，違反禁令的最高處罰是6個月監(jiān)禁和1000美元罰款。

In Florida, a pastor was arrested last month for continuing to hold large services and is charged with unlawful assembly and violation of public health emergency rules, both second-degree misdemeanors.

在佛羅里達州，一名牧師上個月因繼續(xù)舉行大型宗教活動而被捕，他被控非法集會和違反公共衛(wèi)生緊急規(guī)則，這兩項罪名都屬于二級輕罪。

This week, states on the East and West coasts announced they are forming their own regional pacts to work together on how to reopen after the stay-at-home orders.

本周，東海岸和西海岸的各州宣布，它們正在形成各自的區(qū)域協(xié)議，共同研究如何在“居家令”(解除)之后重新開放。

New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Rhode Island and Massachusetts each plan to name a public health and economic official to a regional working group.

紐約州、新澤西州、康涅狄格州、賓夕法尼亞州、特拉華州、羅德島州和馬薩諸塞州都計劃任命一名公共衛(wèi)生和經(jīng)濟官員，組成一個地區(qū)工作組。

West Coast states of California, Washington and Oregon also announced they are joining forces in a plan to begin incremental release of stay-at-home orders.

美國西海岸的加利福尼亞州、華盛頓州和俄勒岡州也宣布，他們將聯(lián)手實施一項計劃，開始逐步解除“居家令”。