在冠狀病毒疫苗準(zhǔn)備好之前，社會能走向正常嗎?

在冠狀病毒疫苗準(zhǔn)備好之前，社會能走向正常嗎?

President Trump asked Americans during Monday's coronavirus briefing to maintain their social distancing through the end of the month to bring the coronavirus under control.

特朗普總統(tǒng)在周一的冠狀病毒簡報會上要求美國人在月底保持他們的社交距離，以控制冠狀病毒。

And if people really do observe the stay-at-home orders, models suggest that the epidemic could wane by summer. There's also the hope that the changing weather will help slow the spread of virus, though that's far from certain.

而且，如果人們真的遵守呆在家里的命令，模型顯示，到夏天，這種流行病可能會減弱。人們還希望不斷變化的天氣將有助于減緩病毒的傳播，盡管這還遠遠不能確定。

But there's a problem. Even if things "get better all of a sudden," as the president suggested he hoped would happen, the virus will not have gone away.

但有個問題。即使事情“突然好轉(zhuǎn)”，正如總統(tǒng)所說他希望的那樣，病毒也不會消失。

"This virus is now in thousands of locations around the world," said Mark Denison, director of the division of infectious disease at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center. "And it's not finished with its human exploration."

范德比爾特大學(xué)醫(yī)學(xué)中心傳染病科主任馬克·丹尼森說：“這種病毒現(xiàn)在分布在世界各地數(shù)千個地方。”它還沒有完成人類的探索。”

Not that the virus is intentionally exploring, it's just doing what viruses do: infecting cells and making copies of itself. That doesn't happen when enough people are immune from infection, either because people have been exposed to the virus, and recovered, or because they've been vaccinated.

這并不是說病毒在故意探索，它只是在做病毒做的事情:感染細胞并復(fù)制自身。當(dāng)足夠多的人對感染有免疫力時，要么是因為人們接觸了病毒，然后痊愈了，要么是因為他們接種了疫苗，否則這(足夠多的人對感染有免疫力)是不會發(fā)生的。

People who don't have that immunity hasn't learned how to deal with the threat the virus represents.

沒有免疫力的人還沒有學(xué)會如何應(yīng)對這種病毒帶來的威脅。

"This virus has about 8 billion immune-naive people on the planet," said Denison. He worries that the virus could easily flare up again once people start going back to work and restarting their accustomed activities.

丹尼森說:“在地球上有大約80億的人對這種病毒免疫缺乏。他擔(dān)心，一旦人們開始重返工作崗位，重新開始他們常規(guī)的活動，病毒很容易再次爆發(fā)。

"This thing is scaring the hell out of me," said Denison.

“這件事把我嚇壞了，”丹尼森說。

The best protection against the virus would be a vaccine. But that's probably at least a year away, even if the development programs now underway succeed.

預(yù)防這種病毒的最佳方法是疫苗。但即使現(xiàn)在正在進行的開發(fā)項目取得成功，那也可能至少還需要一年的時間。

Still, Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said it may be possible to loosen societal restrictions sooner. "I don't think that you're going to have to say that the country cannot get back to a real degree of normalcy until you absolutely have a safe and effective vaccine," he said during the briefing.

不過，美國國家過敏和傳染病研究所所長安東尼·福奇表示，可能會更早放松社會限制。”他在簡報會上說：“我不認(rèn)為你非要說，除非你有絕對安全有效的疫苗，否則這個國家不可能恢復(fù)到真正的正常水平。”

A test that measure people's antibodies, and presumably their immunity, to the virus will be available widely by May, according to U.S. Public Health Service Admiral Brett Giroir.

據(jù)美國公共衛(wèi)生服務(wù)部門的海軍上將布雷特·吉羅瓦表示，一種檢測人們的抗體，以及他們對這種病毒的免疫力的測試將在5月廣泛使用。

That kind of test will be "so important," Fauci said, because then health officials will know how widely the virus has spread.

福奇說，這種檢測將“非常重要”，因為這樣一來，衛(wèi)生官員就會知道這種病毒的傳播范圍有多廣。

Broader testing capability, including antibody testing, would help the country reduce the kind of COVID-19 mitigation by social distancing that is in effect now. "We will have in place the capability of identifying [cases], contract tracing and isolating so it never gets out of hand," he said.

更廣泛的測試能力，包括抗體測試，將有助于該國減少目前有效的社會距離緩解COVID-19帶來的影響。他表示:“我們將具備識別(病例)、追蹤感染和隔離的能力，這樣就永遠不會失控。”