美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員說(shuō)，衰退還沒(méi)有到來(lái)

The American economy is experiencing turbulence. The trade war and global weakness are slowing growth. But Mary Daly, the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, is confident the economy will get through the storm unscathed.
美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在經(jīng)歷動(dòng)蕩。貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟正在放緩增長(zhǎng)。但舊金山聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行總統(tǒng)的瑪麗戴莉相信，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將毫發(fā)無(wú)損地度過(guò)這場(chǎng)風(fēng)暴。
"A recession is not, in my judgment, right around the corner," Daly told CNN's interview this week.
戴莉本周在接受美國(guó)有線電視新聞網(wǎng)的采訪時(shí)表示:“在我看來(lái)，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退不會(huì)馬上來(lái)臨。” Although Daly said the Fed is "mindful of the slowdown," she believes the recovery from the Great Recession will endure.
盡管戴利表示，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)“注意到了經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩”，但她相信，大衰退后的復(fù)蘇將持續(xù)下去。
"I think we have more room to run," said Daly, who does not vote this year on Fed policy decisions but participates in the deliberations.
"我認(rèn)為我們還有更大的空間，" 戴利稱。她今年不會(huì)就美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)政策決策投票，但會(huì)參與討論。
The recovery began in June 2009, creating millions of jobs along the way. The expansion has withstood countless scares, including the European debt crisis, crashing oil prices and a sharp slowdown in China's economy. It is now the longest period of uninterrupted growth in American history.
經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇始于2009年6月，創(chuàng)造了數(shù)百萬(wàn)個(gè)就業(yè)崗位。這種擴(kuò)張經(jīng)歷了無(wú)數(shù)次的恐慌，包括歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)、油價(jià)暴跌和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)急劇放緩。這是美國(guó)歷史上持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)時(shí)間最長(zhǎng)的時(shí)期。
Daly, who was named the president and CEO of the San Francisco Fed last year, suggested her top fear is fear itself.
戴利去年被任命為舊金山聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行行長(zhǎng)兼首席執(zhí)行官，她表示，她最擔(dān)心的就是恐懼本身。
"The biggest risk is: Will the mood get ahead of the data?" she said.
她說(shuō):“最大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是:人們的情緒會(huì)超過(guò)數(shù)據(jù)嗎?” Recession fears spiked in recent months when the US-China trade war erupted again. Economists and investors worried the unprecedented trade clash could be the spark for the next downturn.
近幾個(gè)月，隨著美中貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的再次爆發(fā)，人們對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂加劇。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和投資者擔(dān)心，這場(chǎng)前所未有的貿(mào)易沖突可能會(huì)引發(fā)下一次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。
However, those concerns have eased more recently as Washington and Beijing make progress in trade talks toward a preliminary deal and the US jobs market shows resiliency. US stocks have catapulted back to record highs.
然而，隨著美中兩國(guó)在貿(mào)易談判中朝著達(dá)成初步協(xié)議取得進(jìn)展，以及美國(guó)就業(yè)市場(chǎng)顯示出彈性，這些擔(dān)憂近來(lái)有所緩解。美國(guó)股市已反彈至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高點(diǎn)。
Fed moves to counter trade war
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)采取措施應(yīng)對(duì)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)
Still, Daly said CEOs in her district are clamoring for a settlement to the trade war because it's disrupting their business plans.
盡管如此，戴利說(shuō)，她所在地區(qū)的首席執(zhí)行官們?nèi)栽诖舐暫粲踅鉀Q貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，因?yàn)檫@打亂了他們的商業(yè)計(jì)劃。
"That uncertainty wears people down," Daly said.
戴利說(shuō):“這種不確定性讓人們感到沮喪。
The weakest part of the American economy is the manufacturing industry, which has contracted for three straight months.
美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)最疲軟的部分是制造業(yè)，它已經(jīng)連續(xù)三個(gè)月萎縮。
President Donald Trump has blamed the factory slowdown on the Federal Reserve, saying it has caused the US dollar to become overvalued by raising interest rates too high.
美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普將制造業(yè)增長(zhǎng)放緩歸咎于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)，稱美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將利率提高得過(guò)高，導(dǎo)致美元被高估。
Yet Daly said the manufacturing slowdown has been caused by weak global growth and the trade war. She said trade uncertainty has led "many" businesses to delay investments until the dust settles.
但戴利表示，制造業(yè)放緩是由全球增長(zhǎng)疲弱和貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)造成的。她表示，貿(mào)易不確定性導(dǎo)致“許多”企業(yè)推遲投資，直到問(wèn)題解決。 The Fed has sought to cushion the blow from the trade war and global turmoil by slashing borrowing costs three meetings in a row -- steps that Daly fully supported.
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)尋求通過(guò)連續(xù)三次削減借款成本來(lái)緩沖貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)和全球動(dòng)蕩帶來(lái)的沖擊，戴利完全支持這些舉措。
Will the Fed go negative on rates?
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)負(fù)利率嗎?
Weak growth in Europe and Japan have prompted central bankers there to drop interest rates into negative territory. Trump has urged the Fed to go negative as well, even though the US central bank didn't even resort to this extreme step during the 2008 financial crisis.
歐洲和日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)疲軟，促使當(dāng)?shù)匮胄袑⒗式抵霖?fù)值。特朗普還敦促美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)采取負(fù)利率，盡管美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在2008年金融危機(jī)期間都沒(méi)有采取這種極端措施。
Analysts have said the Fed briefly lost control of rates last month, but Daly doesn't think so.
分析人士曾說(shuō)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)上個(gè)月一度失去了對(duì)利率的控制，但戴利不這么認(rèn)為。